PHOENIX — Election officials don’t normally draw standing-room-only crowds in basement music halls. But the noise around elections in Arizona is anything but normal right now.

Roughly 120 people crammed into Valley Bar — entering through the back alley, down a flight of stairs into a dimly-lit venue stuffed with rows of folding chairs — in early February to hear recently-elected Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a Democrat, and Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican, debate proposals to change how the state votes and counts its ballots. Recent close elections in the state have seen top-of-the-ticket races uncalled for days, an issue they’re eager to address.

Even more surprising than Fontes and Richer drawing a crowd to discuss election administration amid local Super Bowl festivities and a major golf tournament is the fact the two men were sharing a stage at all.

It’s been little more than two years since they faced off in a bitter, acrimonious election, with Richer ultimately unseating then-Maricopa Recorder Fontes in November 2020 to become the chief election official for the country’s fourth-largest county. Richer was sharply critical of how Fontes was running the county office, alleging he was overextending the role beyond that of a neutral administrator.

Read More »

NEW YORK — One of Rep. George Santos’ first-known forays into politics was an attempt to raise $20,000 for a pro-Trump rally in 2019 in Buffalo, N.Y. that never happened.

The five-figure fundraising goal drew questions from members of the small New York state-based group United for Trump. Santos — who was the group's president at the time — claimed he needed $750 to hire an accountant, $2,500 to keep a lawyer on retainer and thousands more for a keynote speaker.

The plans were “over-the-top,” group member Lisa Bennett Joseph said in an interview. Santos wanted to raise too much money, she said. “You have to start small and local.”

Santos was defensive about the unusually high price tag for a local event.

Read More »

Few Democratic candidates suffered more heartbreak on election night than Mandela Barnes. The Wisconsin Democrat, having been largely left for dead politically, came within 1 percentage point of ousting Sen. Ron Johnson.

But for Barnes’ aides, it was something more than a missed opportunity — it was a painful example of how candidates of color continue to face questions about their ability to win. Had the campaign gotten just a wee bit more air cover from super PACs at the race’s critical closing juncture, they reasoned, Barnes would have won.

“There's no question in my mind,” said Kory Kozloski, Barnes’ campaign manager. “If we were able to communicate at the same levels as Ron Johnson, Mandela Barnes would be in the United States Senate today.”

The postmortems that Barnes’ aides undertook were similar to the ones that advisers to other high-profile Black Senate candidates conducted after an election in which Democrats fared well, but those contenders fell short. While there are numerous reasons why none of the Black candidates trying to flip seats won, they’ve gravitated to a common theme, one that’s more personal than a typical after-action campaign report: Black candidates needed more trust — and, with it, funding — from the Democratic Party’s infrastructure.

Read More »

HARRISBURG, Pa. —

Gov. Josh Shapiro made headlines for taking the oath of office last week on a stack of scripture that included a Hebrew bible from Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue, site of the deadliest antisemitic attack in American history.

Yet while Shapiro invoked his Jewish faith in his inaugural address, more memorable on a brisk-but-not-bitter day outside Pennsylvania’s grand capitol was what happened when the St. Thomas Gospel Choir from Philadelphia performed “Lift Every Voice and Sing”: Shapiro sang along with them, mouthing the lyrics to the Black National Anthem from heart while unabashedly rocking back and forth on both legs.

The next day, outside Maryland’s history-drenched State House in Annapolis, it was Oprah Winfrey who left many attendees (and perhaps even a few local pols) starstruck. Winfrey introduced Gov. Wes Moore, the state’s first Black governor and only the third-ever elected African-American governor.

Read More »

An early showdown destined to shape the 2024 election cycle is happening this week inside a luxury waterfront hotel in Orange County, Calif., where weeks of shadow-boxing between incumbent Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel and her foremost challenger, conservative lawyer Harmeet Dhillon, will transition into a high-stakes political brawl.

McDaniel is seeking a fourth two-year term, counseling stability atop the RNC ahead of the coming presidential election, while Dhillon is waging an insurgent campaign to unseat her, arguing that change is needed following the GOP’s abysmal midterm performance.

The sparring has grown intense, with the two camps trading accusations of mismanagement, intimidation, and other misdeeds. And in interviews with POLITICO this week, neither candidate showed any sign of easing up ahead of this week’s RNC winter meeting in Dana Point.

“We just can’t afford to take our foot off the gas,” McDaniel said, projecting confidence she would prevail over Dhillon.

Read More »

Swing state voters broadly rejected candidates in last year’s midterms who questioned the results of the 2020 elections. But unfounded accusations of fraud and other malfeasance continue to tear at the machinery of U.S. elections.

The latest example comes from Alabama and its newly elected secretary of state, Wes Allen. His first official act upon taking office earlier this month was unusual: The Republican fulfilled a campaign promise by withdrawing Alabama from an obscure interstate compact that helps states maintain voter rolls, citing data security concerns.

That consortium — known as Electronic Registration Information Center, or ERIC — has been a genuine bipartisan success story, finding buy-in from red states like Florida and Texas and blue states like Colorado and Connecticut to help them remove duplicate voter registrations and catch potential instances of double voting.

But conservative conspiracy sites like The Gateway Pundit and the Thomas More Society, a nonprofit that filed lawsuits that unsuccessfully sought to overturn the 2020 election, have attacked ERIC as part of a liberal plot to control the underpinnings of American elections.

Read More »

Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez was a stunning winner in the 2022 midterms. The millennial auto shop owner flipped a Washington district that both the state and national Democratic parties considered unwinnable. But then incumbent Jamie Herrera Beutler, who had voted to impeach Donald Trump, came in third in the state’s open primary. Suddenly, Gluesenkamp Perez, 34, was facing off against a Donald Trump-backed Republican in the solidly red district. Despite the long odds that national pundits and pollsters gave her throughout the campaign, she beat Joe Kent, an election-denier and regular guest on Tucker Carlson, by less than one point. Her district stretches more than 230 miles across (about the distance from D.C. to New York) — from remote beach communities on the Pacific Coast to timber towns in the Cascade mountains, and south past dairy and berry farms to the rapidly growing city of Vancouver. It’s a middle-class district where about a quarter of residents are college graduates, and the median income is just under the national median household income of $70,784.

I met up with Gluesenkamp Perez for lunch at Charlie Palmer Steakhouse in D.C. — its white tablecloths and suit-clad patrons casting a stark contrast with the antler-forward decor and outdoor gear of the other Washington’s eateries. I wanted to learn more about how she plans to represent her largely middle-class district (where I had grown up) and what Democrats could learn from her unexpected win. Over a steak salad — rare — Gluesenkamp Perez gave a bracing critique of her party’s deeply out-of-touch approach to the middle class, why the party’s leaders seem to be making that problem worse, not better, and how closing the widening gap between the party’s brain trust and its blue-collar roots can be accomplished by reconnecting Americans with our lost ability to “fix your own shit.”

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Natalie Fertig: You’re part of a 200-plus person Democratic caucus. How do you see yourself creating an understanding of the middle class in that caucus and getting middle-class laws passed?

Read More »

When Lloyd Cotler worked on texting programs for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, it was a relatively new campaign frontier — a blank canvas where Clinton’s digital staffers answered questions about voting, shared comments from Donald Trump that would enrage the Democratic base and, sometimes, asked for campaign contributions.

Now, the space is so crowded — and sometimes downright spammy — that Cotler, the founder of Banter Messaging, advises friends and family to write a check if they want to make political contributions, lest their emails and phone numbers end up on lists that recirculate through the campaign world for eternity.

That advice reflects a recognition among digital campaign staffers that text and email programs have gone from innovative to out of hand, to the point that it’s harming the campaign ecosystem. The rate of return on individual appeals is falling compared to a few years ago, as candidates and outside groups find themselves targeting the same pool of donors. And congressional campaigns spent more on fundraising as a share of their total spending in 2022 than in the previous election cycle, according to a POLITICO analysis of FEC records.

Doubling down on mass emails and texts is still a way to raise significant cash, and federal candidates and committees raised a combined $3.3 billion on ActBlue and WinRed, the parties’ primary online fundraising platforms, during the 2022 cycle. But people who work in the field are growing concerned that fundraising appeals are crowding out newsletters, volunteer efforts and other forms of communication amid the insatiable and never-ending hunt for cash.

Read More »

For Kamala Harris and her aides, the new year — and a new Congress — has brought a sense of optimism.

After spending much of her time in office managing bad headlines, staff turnover and persistent questions about her portfolio and position in Biden world, the vice president is in a better place, her allies and aides say.

She no longer is tied to the whims of an evenly split Senate, where she had been called to cast more than two dozen tie-breaking votes. And they say she no longer feels her every move is being eyed in the context of a potential 2024 Harris presidential campaign since her boss is highly likely to seek another term.

“Now that it looks like he's running, she's really being treated like what I would call a ‘normal vice president,’” said one former Harris aide who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “There's just less attention, which I think actually frees her up to focus on excelling and not have to worry about the relentless scrutiny.”

Read More »

PHILADELPHIA — The Pennsylvania GOP is trying to figure out what went so horribly wrong in 2022.

After the party’s disastrous midterm races, Republicans in the critical battleground state are conducting a postmortem, holding focus groups throughout the state and interviewing thousands of voters about everything from abortion to former President Donald Trump in hopes of getting to the bottom of their losses. As a sign of the seriousness of the effort, the state party has enlisted Public Opinion Strategies, a D.C. area-based firm, to conduct the review of the 2022 election. Republicans said it is expected to cost $100,000.

GOP officials in Pennsylvania are also in the process of launching initiatives aimed at persuading more of their supporters to vote by mail — a method many of them had previously criticized, challenged in court and tried to repeal legislatively — and healing intraparty divides across the state’s diverse regions.

“Every aspect of the 2022 election will be examined,” wrote Lawrence Tabas, the chair of the state Republican Party, in an email to supporters obtained by POLITICO about the postmortem. He added that its funding would help inform “clear messaging on what we, as Republicans, stand for.”

Read More »

NEW YORK — Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams have repeatedly said they can always count on one thing: each other.

In a state where their predecessors were known for publicly bickering even during the darkest days of the pandemic, the Democratic leaders have touted the strength of their relationship.

Now, their ability to execute a shared vision as two moderates will face its biggest test as they seek to enact a sweeping legislative agenda to stimulate the economic recovery of the nation’s largest city in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. They must also address crime concerns that fueled a red wave in November across deep-blue New York.

Doing so will require cooperation from the more liberal leanings of the state Legislature and City Council that hasn’t always seen eye-to-eye with its respective executives on major issues of policy. But Hochul and Adams are banking that a unified approach will move the needle on a number of top items from changes to the state’s controversial laws ending cash bail to a rapid increase in housing development in a state controlled entirely by Democrats.

Read More »

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — After four years of building a national profile and cementing his place as the favorite governor for conservatives across the country, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday formally kicked off his second term in office as he looks to his political future.

DeSantis gave his inaugural address in front of the Florida historic Capitol building in downtown Tallahassee, but the event came with much grander trappings than traditional inaugural events — including DeSantis' first one four years ago. Thousands of people filled the standing-room-only space, which had increased security and huge sets of bleachers that aren’t normally featured at such events.

The 44-year-old DeSantis focused much of his attention on national — not state — issues, and used a Bible he borrowed from Glenn Beck, a nationally-syndicated conservative radio host, for his swearing in.

It was, in other words, meant to look presidential.

Read More »

If there was any doubt Donald Trump’s vilification of early voting is only hurting the GOP, new receipts from the midterm elections show it.

Election data from a trio of states that dramatically expanded the ability to cast ballots before Election Day, either early or by mail, demonstrate that the voting methods that were decidedly uncontroversial before Trump do not clearly help either party.

Lawmakers of both parties made it easier to vote by expanding availability of mail and early voting in a politically mixed group of states: Vermont, Kentucky and Nevada.

The states had divergent results but shared a few key things in common. Making it easier to vote early or by mail did not lead to voter fraud, nor did it seem to advantage Republicans or Democrats. In Kentucky, Republicans held on to five of the state’s six congressional districts and a Senate seat. Both Vermont and Nevada saw split-ticket voters decide statewide races, by a gaping margin in Vermont and a narrow one in Nevada.

Read More »

After years of assembling the annual “worst predictions” list for POLITICO Magazine, I’ve come to understand a difference, subtle but distinct, between bad predictions and ones that are truly awful.

We start with a quick taxonomy of three different bad prediction archetypes:

Misreading: When you make a sincere, clear-eyed attempt to see things as they are, and come to a reasonable conclusion — but the great world spins and things turn out differently because you missed something that proved important. (Example: A political pundit looking at high inflation rates, general voter dissatisfaction and historic midterm trends and concluding that Democrats will get wiped out in the November elections.)

Wishcasting: When you base a prediction less on a sober reading of what is likely to happen than on what you’d personally like to happen. (For a non-political example, me predicting in August that this will be the year the Detroit Lions win the Super Bowl.)

Read More »

NEW YORK — George Santos’ general election opponent called for a House investigation into the GOP member-elect over biographical fabricationshe told on the campaign trail — as Democrats plotted how to take back the district.

“We call upon Congress and demand Congress conduct a House ethics investigation into George Santos,” Robert Zimmerman, a Democrat who lost to his opponent by a 54 to 46 percent margin in November, said Thursday.

Zimmerman joined local Democrats from the state legislature for a rally outside the Nassau County Courthouse a day after Republican District Attorney Anne Donnelly promised to prosecute Santos if he committed any crimes. Federal and state authorities are also probing Santos’ finances and falsehoods he spun while running for office about where he worked, went to school and even volunteered.

Meanwhile, Democrats set their sights on flipping New York’s 3rd congressional district before Santos is even seated.

Read More »

PHOENIX — A recount of votes has confirmed Democrat Kris Mayes narrowly defeated Republican Abraham Hamadeh in the Arizona attorney general’s race, one of the closest elections in state history.

The highly anticipated results announced Thursday in Maricopa County Superior Court are among the last in the country to come out of November’s election and solidified another victory for Democrats who shunned election fraud conspiracies in what used to be a solidly Republican state. Mayes finished 280 votes ahead of Hamadeh, down from a lead of 511 in the original count. The reason for the discrepancy was not immediately clear.

Hamadeh attorney Tim La Sota declined to comment after the hearing ended. Mayes and Hamadeh were not in court during the hearing.

Judge Timothy Thomason, who also announced the results of recounts in two other races, said Republican Tom Horne prevailed in the race for state superintendent of public instruction and Republican Liz Harris won a state legislative seat in the Phoenix suburbs.

Read More »

Republican Rep.-elect George Santos has pioneered a new category of political scandal.

The could-be congressman from New York appears to have invented his entire campaign biography, from his Jewish ancestry to his investment banking career and even his charitable contributions.

“His whole premise for getting elected is based on lies so it’s a novel problem,” said Risa Heller, a leading crisis communications expert who represented Ivanka Trump during her father’s first year in office and Anthony Weiner after his infamous tweet.

Lis Smith, a veteran Democratic political operative who first backed Gov. Andrew Cuomo against claims of sexual harassment before realizing his denials were dishonest, agreed that Santos is in a league of his own.

Read More »

The Republican Jewish Coalition on Tuesday condemned Rep.-elect George Santos after he admitted to lying about key details of his credentials and misrepresenting his Jewish heritage.

“We are very disappointed in Congressman-elect Santos,” RJC, a political group that supports Jewish Republicans,said in a statement. “He deceived us and misrepresented his heritage.”

After aNew York Times investigation last week called out inconsistencies in his résumé, Santos (R-N.Y.) on Mondaytold the New York Post that he had indeed fabricated elements of his background in the lead-up to November’s midterm elections. Santos admitted he hadn’t “directly” worked for Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and had not graduated from Baruch College, nor “from any institution of higher learning.”

Santos also conceded he’d embellished his family’s Jewish history, having previously claimed his mother was Jewish and his maternal grandparents escaped the Holocaust during World War II. The congressman-elect conversely told the New York Post that he is “clearly Catholic” and that his grandmother had told stories about being Jewish and later converting to Catholicism.

Read More »

An Arizona court on Saturday rejected Kari Lake’s efforts to overturn the results of November's gubernatorial election.

Lake, a Republican, lost by around 17,000 votes to Katie Hobbs, Arizona's secretary of state, but sued Maricopa County and Hobbs to overturn the results under the state's election contest statutes.

"The margin of victory as reported by the official canvass is 17,117 votes – beyond the scope of a statutorily required recount," Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson stated in his order. "A court setting such a margin aside, as far as the Court is able to determine, has never been done in the history of the United States. This challenge also comes after a hotly contested gubernatorial race and an ongoing tumult over election procedures and legitimacy – a far less uncommon occurrence in this country."

Lake's lawsuit filed Dec. 9 alleged that illegal votes were cast in the Nov. 8 midterm election and stated that “[t]he tabulators’ rejection of thousands of ballots set off a domino chain of electoral improprieties.”

Read More »

ATLANTA — It’s Friday evening, two weeks before the Georgia Senate runoff. Uzoma Nkwonta is several thousand feet in the air aboard an American Airlines flight heading back to D.C. — still in the navy suit and Calvin Klein loafers he wore to court that day — when he opens his laptop to discover his client had won his lawsuit against the state of Georgia. Court cases typically move at a glacial pace, but this one lurched forward at a furious speed: Nkwonta filed the lawsuit on Monday at 10:08 p.m.; the Republican National Committee asked to join the case for Georgia sometime Tuesday; and at 10:55 a.m. on Wednesday, the judge ordered everyone to come to Atlanta for an in-person hearing less than 48 hours later.

That one judge, presiding over courtroom 7F of the Fulton County Courthouse earlier that Friday, had the power to alter the makeup of the Senate. Nkwonta’s client, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, was fighting to keep polls open the Saturday after Thanksgiving. And Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican who famously rebuffed Donald Trump’s plea to “find 11,780 votes” in 2020, was fighting to keep them closed — in part because of a state holiday that once honored Robert E. Lee, the Confederate general.

Twenty-nine counties ended up offering early voting on the Saturday in question, Nov. 26, enabling 70,331 Georgians to cast their ballots in a state with a long history of suppressing the Black vote. The early votes, which according to official figures skewed for Warnock, would also help the pastor-turned-senator expand a Senate majority that, by all historical indicators, Democrats were poised to lose.

But on that Friday, crammed in a narrow Embraer 175 plane, the blue light of his laptop bouncing off the overhead compartment, Nkwonta doesn’t know any of this, that Warnock’s win would be the ultimate outcome of his lawsuit. Eager to get back home, and savoring his courtroom victory, Nkwonta turns to the flight attendant. He orders himself a drink.

Read More »