Canada

338Canada: What is Trudeau doing to fight climate change? Half of Canadians say ‘not enough’

New polling finds the country skeptical but supportive of the government’s pursuit of a net-zero economy.

Jonathan Wilkinson rises to speak during Question Period in the House of Commons in Ottawa.

MONTREAL — Jonathan Wilkinson has stopped talking about a “just transition,” which is just as well since few Canadians had even heard of it.

The buzzwords were Liberal shorthand for long promised legislation to guide the Canadian economy away from fossil fuels toward greener, sustainable jobs. Last week, the natural resources minister shared a roadmap toward that goal.

The Sustainable Jobs Plan, as it will now be called, says it’s all about the future prospects of “workers, businesses, Indigenous partners and young people.”

It also defines what’s at risk: “As investors increasingly prioritize assets that will contribute to a net-zero world future, global market opportunities worth trillions of dollars are at stake.”

Legislation is now expected by June.

Talk of a “just transition” definitely inspired anti-Trudeau rants and headline controversy in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but a new poll from Léger suggests the government measure is only on the radar of 16 percent of Canadians.

About half of the respondents who told Léger they were aware of the plan thought it will “help workers lose their job as a result of climate change policies.” Another third said it was “anti-Alberta” and will “cause jobs to be lost.”

Almost 50 percent of those polled believe the plan is about fighting climate change; 45 percent said its goal was to reduce carbon emissions.

— The state of play: From a purely electoral standpoint, the environment has historically not moved a critical mass of votes. Canadians rarely rank “climate change” or “protecting the environment” near the top of lists of issues they care about.

However, the latest Nanos Research tracker shows that 11 percent of respondents consider the environment their top concern, ranking just behind healthcare (24 percent), jobs/economy (13 percent) and inflation (12 percent).

Léger’s poll indicates 50 percent of Canadians do not believe Canada is doing enough to fight climate change, including 62 percent in Quebec and 56 percent in British Columbia. Only in Alberta do a majority think the country is already doing enough.

— A closer look: The environment may not move as many votes as economic concerns, but it’s possible the government could catch more eyeballs with a plan that protects both the environment and jobs.

We know from the Léger poll that 52 percent of Canadians approve of moving Canada’s economy away from fossil fuels. Only 27 percent believe it is not the right approach — a near 2-to-1 advantage for those who support the clean energy transition.

— Who thinks what: Clear majorities in Canada’s three most populous provinces think moving away from fossil fuels is the right approach: in Quebec (63 percent), British Columbia (57 percent) and Ontario, where the Liberals find the bulk of their seats at the House, (52 percent).

The Léger poll also reflects uncertainty and suspicion. Over the total national sample, 40 percent of respondents agreed with the following statement: “The Just Transition Plan will make us less competitive in the global economy” against 33 percent who disagreed.

In oil-rich Alberta, 61 percent believe the plan will hurt Canada’s competitiveness on the global stage, a proportion three times higher than those who disagree.

— The big picture: Liberals can find in the numbers a reason for prudent optimism.

Here’s why:

Asked if they are confident “the Federal Government will be able to ensure displaced workers find good paying replacement jobs,” 30 percent of respondents expressed confidence (including a measly 4 percent who were “very confident”), against 56 percent who were not confident at all.

Wouldn’t an optimist say the bar is set so low that hopping over should be feasible?

— What’s next: The NDP made the energy transition plan a conditions in its deal to prop up the Liberals’ minority government. Now Wilkinson has delivered the blueprints, and with the federal budget on the way, the NDP have little additional leverage.

The latest 338Canada federal projections, based on weighted averages of polls, have the Liberals and Conservatives in a near-tie in the popular vote and seats projections. But, more significantly for the status of Liberal minority, the NDP stands in a precarious position where it could lose seats, especially in British Columbia where half the current NDP caucus was elected in 2021.

It’s enough to give pause to any New Democrats eager to pull the plug on Parliament, which means the Liberals have the luxury of time to implement their energy plan.