338Canada: What Canadians really think about energy
Despite climate commitments, polling suggests a growing number of people favor growth of the oil and gas sector.
MONTREAL, Que. — Canada’s Liberal government wants to transform the energy sector, but a new survey suggests Canadians are not there yet.
A newly released survey from Nanos Research for the University of Ottawa reveals a majority of Canadians support growth of the oil and gas sector. In fact, the proportion of Canadians who agree the oil and gas sector should expand has increased in recent years.
When Nanos asked Canadians to rate the importance of oil and gas to Canada’s economy, 74 percent ranked it between 7 and 10; 32 percent chose a 10 — up nine points since November 2020, a variation outside the poll’s margin of error.
— The state of play: Whether oil and gas are “important” to Canada’s economy may be a question of semantics, but there’s little debate about their significance.
Statistics Canada has reported that from 2000 until the Covid-19 pandemic, the gross domestic product share of oil and gas in the economy averaged about 5 percent for Canada, 21 percent for Alberta and 25 percent for Newfoundland and Labrador.
Put another way: Oil and gas is a source of monetary wealth for many Canadians, not to mention all levels of governments.
— Future thinking: Nanos found that 57 percent of Canadians consider the oil and gas sector key to Canada’s future economy, 26 percent rated its importance a 10.
— The political implications: The disconnect between the survey findings and Canada’s ambitious climate goals could become a major problem for the Liberals.
Notwithstanding the carbon tax (tax-and-rebate), the Liberals are betting heavily on green technologies. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s 2023 budget included billions in tax credits for clean tech manufacturing, clean electricity and hydrogen. Carbon capture technology also received significant financial support.
Almost all Canadians support growth in the renewable energy sector — 74 percent strongly, 20 percent somewhat, according to Nanos. But to meet emissions targets we cannot simply add renewables, we must also subtract sources of carbon emission.
Nanos found that 63 percent of Canadians, including majorities in every polling region, agree “exports from Canada’s oil and gas sector can contribute to combating global climate change if our exports displace energy sources in other countries that are more damaging to the climate.”
That doesn’t sound like an electorate ready for an energy transition.
As for the Conservatives, the argument that global emissions could be brought down by exporting “ethically produced” Canadian oil and gas — a case Alberta has made for years — would seem to align with the thinking of many Canadians in the Nanos findings. One could expect it to become a prominent CPC campaign talking point in the next campaign.
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that urgent action is needed to avert, minimize and address losses of ecosystems and damages to critical infrastructure. Small, incremental changes will not cut it anymore if Canada is to meet its emission commitments.
We were reminded when the Liberals unveiled new climate goals (cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent within 10 years) that Canada has never met emission targets in any agreements since the 1990s.
— The big picture: Even the most ambitious and scientifically driven plan in the world will not bear fruit if citizens don’t buy in. What can governments do if voters don’t follow?
It is easy to be cynical about climate challenges and the monstrous effort needed to address them, but one wonders if a government — of any stripe — could win an election by pushing citizens and businesses further down the clean tech route.
The real question: Are Canadians ready and willing?