The 338Canada seat projection gives a slight edge to the UCP. Why? In a word: Calgary.

The state of play

There are 87 seats in play in the province.

Edmonton looks like a lock for the NDP, as it was in 2019. Depending on how the NDP performs on the outskirts of the capital region, that’s about 20 seats NDP Leader Rachel Notley can take to the bank. There is also potential for the NDP in both ridings in Lethbridge (Lethbridge-East & Lethbridge-West), a medium-size city in southern Alberta.

With a few exceptions (Banff-Kananaskis, maybe), most of rural and small-town ridings remain highly favorable to the UCP, as was the case in 2019. That’s 35 seats, give or take, locked in for Smith and the UCP.

Let’s take a closer look at Calgary, where the Jason Kenney-led UCP won 23 out of 26 ridings four years ago. Three scenarios can unfold in 2023:

1. UCP blue covers Calgary and gives Smith a landslide victory.

2. The vote splits down the middle (or close to it, as recent polls have indicated), propelling the UCP above the 44-seat threshold to win a majority, albeit by a significantly reduced margin seat-wise. (In such a situation, many high-profile incumbents would lose reelection.)

3. The NDP flips the script and wins around 20 seats in Calgary. That would make Notley the first former premier in all of Alberta’s history to regain power.

Alberta polling in March suggested the NDP had work to do in Alberta’s most populous city. In Calgary, Léger and ThinkHQ measured a tie between the UCP and the NDP. While Mainstreet Research had the NDP leading the UCP by 10 points, the Angus Reid Institute gave a three-point edge to the UCP.

On Tuesday though, the CBC published a new Calgary poll from Janet Brown Opinion Research, which shows a citywide, five point-lead for the NDP over the UCP, 47 to 42 percent. Such numbers would translate into massive seat gains for the NDP.

Behind the swings

What explains different findings between pollsters?

Regional subsamples contain a higher level of uncertainty, so one should expect such fluctuations. But there is also the fact Calgary is a rapidly growing and evolving city, meaning polling residents with accuracy is even more of a challenge than before.

Jared Wesley, political scientist at the University of Alberta, stresses that few pollsters use “quotas and weights to account for people of color, for example,” which “risk underestimating NDP support in places like Calgary, suburbs and small cities.”

Below are the latest 338Canada seat projections, which will be updated regularly once the writ drops.

Hence, current numbers point to a very close seat total, with a slight edge to the UCP — if they hold until May 29. The next seven weeks will feel like an eternity for UCP supporters.

As Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid points out, Smith has a history of turning winning hands into crushing defeats. As head of the Wildrose Party in 2012, she was leading in the polls in majority territory late in the campaign when she refused to condemn homophobic remarks from one of her candidates. It opened the door to a PC comeback.

Fast-forward to 2014, Smith crossed the floor to a PC government she had spent years admonishing. Months later, Notley’s NDP won the 2015 election, breaking the 44-year PC dynasty.

Third time may be a charm for Smith, though there is precedent of her snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

With seven weeks to go, it’s still Smith’s election to lose. We know from recent history that she is capable of doing just that.