The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down after a period of robust growth last year, and economists and investors see an increasing possibility of a recession within the next 12 months. Whatever happens next will be particularly consequential to women, who bore the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic fallout. The tight labor market has been a boon for women, many of whom have returned to the workforce and saw their wages rise 4.9 percent in April, outpacing pay increases for men for the eighth month in a row.

But those bigger paychecks haven’t kept up with the highest inflation in more than 40 years, including rising costs for housing, groceries, gasoline, and other essentials, which tend to make up a bigger share of household budgets for workers at the lower end of the wage spectrum, particularly women of color. How would an economic slowdown affect women’s economic security across socioeconomic, racial, and geographic lines?