A S.F. challenger emerges — but not from the left

Presented by Southern California Edison Company

THE BUZZ: For all the animus San Francisco progressives feel toward Mayor London Breed, it’s looking more and more likely none of them will step up to deny her a second term.

The first challenger to file is decidedly not from the bloc of leftwing Breed-antagonists. Supervisor Ahsha Safai has recently defied the mayor with a homeless services oversight ballot measure and publicly questioned her leadership. But he was long seen as a Breed ally and fellow centrist (by S.F. standards), back to when he backed Breed for interim mayor against progressives who denied her in an infamous 2018 bloodletting. Safai told the San Francisco Chronicle people were “dissatisfied” with Breed and the city’s condition.

Breed has clashed with leftward supervisors and activists for years over housing, homelessness and public safety — all issues that embody San Francisco’s fraught status quo. Breed successfully surfed the tides of public discontent for much of her first term, aligning with a restive public by backing school board recalls and declining to support ex-District Attorney Chesa Boudin ahead of his recall (Breed’s chosen successor will share the ballot with her in 2024.).

But the electorate’s goodwill is dissipating, with multiple polls last year finding Breed’s numbers had plunged as voters perceived a lack of progress on quality-of-life issues. Voters also backed a rival supervisor’s measure moving the mayoral election to 2024, a likely turnout-booster that Breed decried as a socialist end-run.

The mayor’s eroding position, unallayed discontent and a presidential-year election: The combination might seem to create an opening for a left that longs to break the chain of business-aligned, City Family mayors. Yet, it’s not clear any viable progressive will contest Breed getting another four years.

Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin — who just returned to a role in which he sparred with then-Mayor Gavin Newsom 15 years ago — told us he wants “a leader that can lead” but wasn’t exploring a candidacy. We didn’t hear back from Assembly member Phil Ting — who finished far out of the 2011 mayoral contest, terms of the Legislature in 2024 and has about $375,000 stashed in a 2026 state treasurer account — although he told the Chronicle he wasn’t planning to run despite a campaign to draft him.

Incumbency is a powerful fortifier, and deep-pocketed donors are unlikely to forsake Breed. Both factors could make an open 2028 race the more attractive option for the left. But the lack of a 2024 contender also says something about the state of the bench. It’s similarly unclear what progressive would run to succeed Rep. Nancy Pelosi when she steps down and launches a generational race that could make the mayoral contest look mild by comparison.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Tuesday morning. Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins is joining organized labor officials today to back a constitutional amendment guaranteeing a right to collectively bargain, and legislators are weighing who to make the first California High Speed Rail inspector general after a deal to release train funding created the position.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up at [email protected] and [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Delivering remarks at the California Highway Patrol memorial ceremony in Sacramento, along with Attorney General Rob Bonta, California State Transportation Agency Secretary Toks Omishakin and CHP Commissioner Sean Duryee.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “There’s only two fucking buttons on your desk. There’s a green button, and there’s a red button. Ninety-nine percent of the time, the green button is the labor button. Ninety-nine percent of the time, the green button means you’re doing the right thing and the red button means that you’re an asshole.” Speaker Anthony Rendon at a California Labor Federation event.

TWEET OF THE DAY:

WE’RE HIRING — POLITICO is embarking on an exciting expansion in the Golden State and looking for another journalist to join our growing team as a California Playbook author. More in the job description here.

TOP TALKERS

— “Writers’ strike 2023: How much will it cost L.A.?” by the Los Angeles Times’ Marisa Gerber and Ronald D. White: “The cascading impact of the Hollywood writers’ strike could touch almost every facet of the economy in Southern California, including the housing market, and lead to economic fallout that eclipses the estimated $2.1 billion in losses during the last work stoppage, experts say.”

— “Durbin ups the pressure on Feinstein — gently,” by The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake: “If there’s one Senate Judiciary Committee Democrat besides Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) who most gives the liberal wing of their party fits, it might be Feinstein’s successor as the panel’s top Democrat, Chair Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.). And Durbin’s gentle handling of calls from the left for Feinstein to resign has only exacerbated the situation.”

CAMPAIGN MODE

— “Most vulnerable House list runs through New York, California,” by Roll Call’s Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire: “Campaign insiders and election analysts said they believe New York and California will be key to determining which party will control the House. In New York, Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, who represents a district Biden won by 15 percentage points, along with fellow New York GOP freshmen Mike Lawler and Brandon Williams, are among the most endangered incumbents. California Republican Reps. John Duarte and Mike Garcia and Oregon Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer also make the list.”

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— “A Bay Area homebuilder planned a project with union rules. Can it work anywhere else?” by CalMatters’ Ben Christopher: “What makes Quito Village unique dates to early 2020 when Sand Hill Property Company agreed to follow a strict labor standard, promoted by some of the state’s most powerful organized labor groups, that favors the hiring of union workers. The Silicon Valley real estate developer did so to take advantage of a 2017 state law meant to speed the construction of dense housing.”

— “Diocese of Oakland files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy,” by the East Bay Times’ Jakob Rodgers: “The Chapter 11 filing, the church said, is needed to ‘stabilize its finances’ as it faces about 330 lawsuits from victims whose claims had been previously barred until the state allowed for old cases to be filed. Each of those cases now grinds to a halt, much to the frustration of sex abuse victims, as bankruptcy proceedings begin.”

— “After recent killings on California reservation, tribes ask for help to stem violence,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Hannah Wiley: “The recent violence, along with Khadijah Britton’s unsolved disappearance, underscore the challenges California tribes face in stemming the crisis of missing and slain Indigenous people. The centuries-long problem stretches back to white settler colonialism and the forced removal of Indian children into boarding schools, worsened by a broken foster-care system and the ravages of drugs, domestic violence and human trafficking.”

— Industry, greens jockey as California kicks off recycling label law, by POLITICO’s Jordan Wolman: The Federal Trade Commission, which enforces environmental marketing claims, is also updating its rules. Environmental groups are hoping the FTC will adopt California’s determination of which items can be labeled as recyclable. The sheer size of California’s market could also force producers to apply its labeling rules nationwide.

MEDIA MATTERS

AWARDS SEASON — Congrats to the Los Angeles Times on picking up two Pulitzer prizes: one to the staff for breaking news coverage of the leaked tapes scandal, and one to photographer Christina House for her images of a pregnant, unhoused woman. And kudos to the San Francisco Chronicle’s Joaquin Palomino and Trisha Thadani, for being finalists in the investigative category thanks to their series on SRO’s, and Gabrielle Lurie and Stephen Lam for being finalists in the photography category after documenting the opioid epidemic.

— “Kristen Go joins CalMatters as its next editor in chief,” by CalMatters’ Sonya Quick: “CalMatters has consistently played an important role in impacting the lives of Californians,” Go said. “I’m thrilled to continue building on the great work, growing its presence around the state and working with our media partners to hold the powerful accountable and create a better California.”

MIXTAPE

— “Downtown S.F. has 18.4 million square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Roland Li and Sriharsha Devulapalli.

IN MEMORIAM

— “Michael Berman, Democratic strategist and force in California politics, dies,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Melody Gutierrez.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected]