Biden’s state dinner is more than just a state dinner

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TRUST ISSUES — When the White House welcomes South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to a black-tie state dinner tonight, the formal event will highlight the 70th anniversary of the partnership between the two nations.

But Yoon’s visit is more than just ceremonial. The backdrop for his week in Washington is a sense of uncertainty surrounding the relationship between longtime allies, even as both Yoon and President Joe Biden stress the alliance is as strong as ever.

The relationship was tested by the recent Pentagon leak of classified information on the war in Ukraine, where leaked intelligence documents suggested the U.S. was spying on South Korea. Yoon dismissed those claims and his government did not air any public complaints, an approach that came at some political cost as it drew public criticism in South Korea as an act of obedience and submission towards the U.S.

“There’s increasing doubts and distrust about whether or not the U.S. is actually trustworthy to deliver on a commitment to defend South Korea from a potential nuclear attack by North Korea,” Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea Studies and director of the U.S.-Korea policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview with Nightly.

While Yoon has focused on strengthening relationships with allies abroad, back home the South Korean public has also expressed growing displeasure with his handling of domestic issues, such as inflation and record high energy prices. During his summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on March 16 — a nation with which South Korea has a strained relationship due to Japan’s brutal history of colonial rule in the Korean Peninsula during the early- to mid-1900s — Yoon announced a plan that no longer demands Japanese companies compensate South Korean forced labor victims. That plan, which 60% of South Koreans oppose, generated a swift backlash. Following his summit with Kishida, Yoon’s approval rating dropped to 30 percent.

As for Biden, his Indo-Pacific strategy is largely reliant on maintaining strong relationships with both Japan and South Korea. And despite longstanding tensions, the three countries have made it clear that a trilateral partnership is a priority in the face of China’s growing economic and militaristic competitiveness, Russia’s war on Ukraine and increasing threats from North Korea.

One of the Biden administration’s asks from Yoon includes a block on filling shortfalls on chips, anticipating Beijing’s possible ban on sales by U.S. company Micron, according to the Financial Times. South Korea remains one of the most China-dependent economies, with exports making up 40 percent of the country’s national income.

“South Korea has been, prior to Yoon’s alignment, identified as kind of the weak link for the U.S. because it had been so exposed to China economically despite the security alliance to the United States,” Snyder said. “And that means that there is something that South Korea has to lose.”

Biden is also asking Seoul to provide munitions to Kyiv, a move that would force Yoon to override its Foreign Trade Act that blocks the sale of weapons to countries at war and the re-export to third-party countries. South Korea has previously supported Biden’s push for Ukraine aid and provided $100 million to Ukraine last year.

The U.S. and South Korea unveiled a new agreement Wednesday that details U.S. commitment to providing military support for South Korea in the event of a North Korean attack, coupled with South Korea’s public promise to refrain from developing nuclear weapons. The two leaders also held a joint press conference in the Rose Garden Wednesday, where Biden bolstered Yoon’s hand by asserting that a nuclear attack by North Korea against the U.S. or its allies would “result in the end of whatever regime were to take such an action.”

With his support for Biden’s Indo-Pacific agenda, Yoon has positioned himself in stark contrast to his predecessor Moon Jae-in, who remained unmoved on issues related to China or Japan.

“Yoon has got himself caught in his own dilemma because he’s been talking about how South Korea should be on a global pivotal stage. And that’s fine, except that that also could be expensive,” Snyder said. “It’s not clear how the South Korean public feels about paying international bills. It will come as part of the process of taking that step to becoming a player on international matters that are far from Korea.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on Twitter at @katherinealong.

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