China: It’s complicated

Presented by Google


Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada

Thanks for reading. I’m your host, Zi-Ann Lum, with Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Ottawa’s decision to expel ZHAO WEI is teeing up an old ask from the Ukrainian Canadian Congress: It wants Canada to do the same to Russian diplomats. One China expert tells us Canada “should be prepared for worsening scenarios.” Another advised us to follow the money to decipher if Ottawa’s Indo-Pacific strategy has teeth.

DRIVING THE DAY


CONNECTIVITY ISSUES — Every time CHERIE WONG appears at a parliamentary committee her internet fizzles out.

On Tuesday morning, to pre-empt any technical difficulties, Wong went to the Hill to appear in person at a House committee investigating foreign election interference.

Her colleague, AI-MEN LAU, appeared via videolink from Taiwan when a technical glitch disrupted their testimonies.

The microphones were working for seven minutes before the committee’s audio system went sideways, forcing a lengthy suspension while technicians tried to fix the sudden problem.

Wong, the executive director of Alliance Canada Hong Kong, is an outspoken critic of the Chinese Communist Party. The tech issues, she said, seem to happen every time she’s about to say something bad about Beijing.

“There is a pattern of which when I do receive emails from MPs’ offices or committees that my home internet or my devices would encounter technological difficulties,” she told the Commons procedure and House affairs committee Tuesday.

— Heightened tensions: Chinese diplomat ZHAO WEI was expelled from Canada Monday after China was found interfering in the lives of Canadian parliamentarians such as Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG.

Beijing responded by booting Canadian diplomat JENNIFER LALONDE from Shanghai.

But the political theater is not especially reassuring to dissidents who live in fear of the Chinese Communist Party every day.

“It is a very isolating and lonely experience,” Wong said about the life of dissidents, who are not public officials in positions of power. “There’s no action and no safety protocols for us,” she said, adding that it reinforces a reflex to self-censor.

— In related listening: On today’s Front Burner pod: Canada-China tension high as diplomats expelled.

— New low: LYNETTE ONG, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, tells Playbook the diplomatic spat could take Canada-China relations into a new chapter — the one that comes after the release of MICHAEL KOVRIG and MICHAEL SPAVOR.

“I hope the tit-for-tat will stop there, and does no further damage to the bilateral relations,” Ong said. “But, judging from China’s recent spate with a number of countries, from Australia, South Korea to Japan, Canada should be prepared for worsening scenarios.”

— In other news from PROC: China working to get Canadians ‘at each other’s throats': interference researcher tells MPs.

— How’s this for timing: Also on Tuesday, Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY announced that Canada will be seeking one of three open seats on the United Nations Human Rights Council for the 2028 to 2030 term.

“We will win this bid,” she said.

— Wait a minute: Zhao’s expulsion highlights some policy incoherence that MPs will be asked to consider at a meeting later this week.

— Strange silence: IHOR MICHALCHYSHYN, executive director of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, tells Playbook the government’s silence on the status of Russian diplomats has been “very frustrating” given the 14-month conflict that has upturned geopolitics.

“It’s quite despicable that the Russian embassy has over 80 people working there at a time when they’re launching and running the largest full-scale war in Europe since World War II … and there doesn’t seem to be any kind of diplomatic consequence for them.”

— What’s next: The congress will use the spotlight on the Zhao decision to get Ottawa to revisit its “overly cautious” approach with Russia.

Michalchyshyn plans to bring up the seeming two sets of rules when he appears before the House foreign affairs committee on Thursday.

“It’s a strange silence that sort of flies in the face of what is happening around the world,” he said.

Like Ottawa Playbook? Maybe you know others who’d like to start the day with a free rush of intel. Point them to this link where sign up is free.

For your radar

BIG DAY FOR DRY CLEANERS — Politics and The Pen is today, which is also a reminder that the Parliamentary Press Gallery Dinner is exactly a month away.

NDP MP DANIEL BLAIKIE and Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER are the night’s emcees and our own NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY will have all the highlights in Thursday’s Playbook.

— Spotted: Lornado, the U.S. ambassador’s residence, played host to a pre-Power Pen reception to celebrate the nominees with the company of JOE CLARK, MAUREEN MCTEER, ROB OLIPHANT, MONA FORTIER, MELISSA LANTSMAN, MICHAEL CHONG, RAWLSON KING, JULIE DZEROWICZ and Sen. ROSEMARY MOODIE.

AMERICAN HORROR STORY — Former president DONALD TRUMP’s election bid faces a new challenge after a federal jury found he abused and defamed writer E. JEAN CARROLL in the 1990s.

The Tuesday verdict marks the first time that Trump, who has been accused of sexual misconduct by more than two dozen women, has been held legally responsible for sexual assault. POLITICO’s ERICA ORDEN and WESLEY PARNELL have the details.

How the verdict will affect Trump’s dreams to return to the White House remains to be seen with an election still more than two years away.

ANKUSH KHARDORI, a former federal prosecutor in the U.S. Justice Department, writes in POLITICO Magazine that the case reaffirms Trump’s unicorn status, which can be viewed as good or bad:

“As a country, we also now have to grapple with the political implications of having a leading presidential contender who has been found liable for conduct as grotesque as sexual assault. Regardless of what one thinks of Trump’s fitness for the presidency, this is a qualitatively new development that could — or at least should — conceivably turn some voters away from him.”

— Top of POLITICO this morning: Trump’s defeat in Carroll case presages more legal peril.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


— It’s caucus day on the Hill.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa with plans to join the Liberals’ national caucus and question period in the afternoon.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Niigata, Japan, for the G-7 Finance Ministers and central bank governors meeting.

— India’s Commerce Minister PIYUSH GOYAL is in Toronto wrapping up his three-day visit to Canada.

8 a.m. The Frontier Duty Free Association holds a press conference in West Block to call on the U.S. and Canadian governments to “never restrict our border again.”

9:30 a.m. Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER and Families Minister KARINA GOULD will be at the Ottawa International Airport to unveil a new design for the Canadian passport.

2 p.m. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH holds a media availability in the West Block foyer before stepping inside the chamber for question period.

6 p.m. Politics and the Pen gets underway at the Château Laurier.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION


NOW WHAT — A Chinese diplomat in Toronto has been sent packing. A Canadian diplomat in Shanghai is about to return home. Dissidents and diaspora communities continue to fall through the gaps in Canada. Trade with China continues to climb.

Playbook called GORDON HOULDEN, director emeritus at the University of Alberta’s China Institute, to make sense of the big picture.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

Does this diplomatic skirmish mean Canada-China relations have hit a new low since the two Michaels’ release? Does the expulsion of consulate staff mark an escalation in tensions?

We’re bumping along the bottom. My sense has been since the release of MENG WANZHOU — which was of huge importance to China, far greater importance than this issue we’re dealing with today — that China has been interested in a restoration of relations. Realistically, not to where they were a decade ago, but a restoration of relations to at least where they were before Meng Wanzhou and the two Michaels.

China may have underestimated the corrosive effect of that long detention of the two Michaels. A quick back bounce wasn’t in the cards.

I regard this expulsion as really a small subset of the bigger issue of political interference.

Why underestimated?

If you look at the polling of China, it was already deteriorating prior to the issue of the two Michaels. But that really took the stuffing out.

Now we’re looking at a situation where the positive views of China are low. In the most recent Nanos poll, around 12 percent — very low. As low as you can go in two digits.

That is a big limitation going forward in terms of what can be done. The political interference issue, which is very effectively being used by the opposition — not to say there isn’t any merit to it — but [the Conservatives are] using their cudgel on the relationship going forward. And they’re not done.

Was the expulsion of consulate staff in Toronto and Shanghai an overreaction? Was it justified?

In the case of Canada, we had no choice. I’m not a big fan of leaks, by the way. I don’t think it’s a great way to run foreign policy. But once it was revealed and in effect confirmed by the prime minister that there was substance to this, I don’t think there’s any choice.

The Chinese side, their national pride, their power and their track record, their playbook is to react. They saw this as a provocation and, in my view, took out an innocent person who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

How does this impact Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy, or does it?

I was pleased to see when the Indo-Pacific strategy came out that China was mentioned, albeit all in the negative fashion. I’d argue if that relationship continues to go south, or at least doesn’t improve at all, it’s going to lead to continued or even increased emphasis on an alternative — and that would be parts of the Indo-Pacific.

One thing that isn’t in the strategy is a recognition of how big is the trade with China — which is more or less [trade with India, Korea, Japan] put together.

I suspect there will be companies that engage in diversifying their trade out of just the United States and end up spending more time on the China relationship. They may well find out that they’re actually doing more business with Chinese firms, more engaged in Chinese supply chains, and more involved with Chinese infrastructure because that’s such an important part of the overall relationship of Asian economies.

You mentioned trade. The value of imports from China hit a record high last year, topping the C$100-billion mark for the first time. Do you foresee this escalation in tensions to have any impact on trade?

Zero.

MEDIA ROOM

— JAMES MCCARTEN reports from Washington: Canada keeps close-mouthed but a close eye on standoff over U.S. debt limit.

— Canadian Membership in AUKUS: A Time for Action is a timely new report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

— GRANT ROBERTSON has a Globe exclusive: Sport Canada gave top marks to national organizations under scrutiny.

— Wildfire season has converged with election season in Alberta. Political scientist LISA YOUNG considers scenarios.

— On the Decibel, economic reporter MATT LUNDY explains what went wrong with the Liberal government’s First-Time Home Buyer Incentive. Read Lundy’s reporting here.

— Over on the Hub, GINNY ROTH makes the case for the return of the debate club. How’s this for a salvo: “As Generation Z graduated from university, gaining power and share of voice in Canadian society, their fragility caused our collective compassion and critical thinking skills to atrophy.”

— What will or won’t a Conservative government do? It’s a question Abacus Data put to Canadians in its latest survey.

— “A Senate committee studying the online streaming bill held 31 meetings, heard from 138 witnesses, and received 67 briefs,” Senator DONNA DASKO writes in the Citizen. “Such widespread scrutiny – and the changes it produced — is a sign of healthy oversight.”

PROZONE


Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers by SUE ALLAN: Bracing for what comes next.

In other news for Pros:
— U.S. to host Canada and Mexico at semiconductor summit.
— Global regulators bear down on Big Tech deals.
— Critical minerals project gets fast tracked.
— Biden’s carbon-capture agenda faces hurdles on the left.
— A new, dire debt warning: U.S. could breach limit in early June.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to retired Senator DOUGLAS BLACK and former Cabmin SCOTT BRISON.

Spotted: Former Minister of Natural Resources of Canada GARY LUNN on Elgin Street … MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, a proud mom … Conservative MP BOB ZIMMER, tipping his hat in the House to the B.C. Wildfire Service. “We are with you,” he said.

CBC, resuming some activity on Twitter.

PIYUSH GOYAL in Toronto with International Trade Minister MARY NG and High Commissioner SANJAY KUMAR VERMA, stumping India’s “stable environment.” Goyal, India’s commerce minister, also met with Business Council of Canada President and CEO GOLDY HYDER, Royal Bank of Canada President and CEO DAVE MCKAY.

STATISTICS CANADA’s Baby Names Observatory: NOAH and OLIVIA top the list.

Among the attendees at an April 20 PIERRE POILIEVRE fundraiser in Vaughan, Ont.: human trafficking activist TIMEA NAGY, and former Canada Border Services Agency enforcement officer MARIO CATENACCIO — who testified on the same issue at the House status of women committee three days prior.

Movers and shakers: Senator IRIS G. PETTEN was sworn into the Senate Tuesday afternoon. More photos. … Facebook whistleblower FRANCES HAUGEN is joining McGill University’s Center for Media, Technology and Democracy as senior fellow in residence.

MICHELLE CHAWLA, appointed Canada Council for the Arts’ new director and CEO. The “first Punjabi” in the Crown corporation’s top spot, tweeted Liberal MP RANDEEP SARAI.

Farewells: Liberal MP MARK GERRETSEN used his time in the House Tuesday to bid adieu to Kingston’s Classic Video. “Hundreds of customers, new and old, paid one last visit to say goodbye,” he said. … Liberal MP TERRY SHEEHAN shared a final farewell to the late GORDON LIGHTFOOT: “It is sundown and we hope he takes care.”

MPs RACHEL BENDAYAN and PETER SCHIEFKE, paid tribute to the legacy of MARC LALONDE.

NUNATSIAQ NEWS features an obituary for former Kuujjuaq mayor SAMMY KONEAK, who died at 56.

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected].

On the Hill


→ Find upcoming House committees here

→ Keep track of Senate committees here

— It’s caucus day on the Hill.

8 a.m. The Frontier Duty Free Association holds a press conference in West Block to call on the U.S. and Canadian governments to “never restrict our border again.”

9:30 a.m. Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER and Families Minister KARINA GOULD will be at the Ottawa International Airport to unveil a new design for the Canadian passport.

12 p.m. The Senate veterans’ affairs committee examines services provided to veterans, and commemorative activities.

4 p.m. The Senate social affairs, science and tech committee will be conducting clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-22.

4 p.m. The Senate foreign affairs and trade committee will hear from officials from Canadian Heritage and Global Affairs Canada..

4:15 p.m. Peter Routledge of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will be at the Senate banking committee.

4:15 p.m. The Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee will be busy with clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-9.

4:30 p.m. The House agriculture committee will consult department officials and the American Beekeeping Federation about the environmental contribution of agriculture.

4:30 p.m. The House operations and estimates committee will devote its first two hours to Defence Construction Canada, the Transportation Safety Board of Canada and the Privy Council Office. At 6:30 p.m., it plans to shift gears to McKinsey; senior officials from nine government departments will be in attendance.

6:45 p.m. The Senate finance committee will have nine finance department officials at their meeting to discuss Bill C-47.

6:45 p.m. The Senate Indigenous Peoples committee is studying Bill C-29, An Act to provide for the establishment of a national council for reconciliation.

6:45 p.m. The Senate transportation committee will be studying Bill C-18.

Behind closed doors: The Senate ethics committee will be discussing its conflict of interest code. The House industry and technology committee will meet at 4:30 p.m. to discuss its blockchain report.

TRIVIA


Tuesday’s answer: PITSEOLAK ASHOONA, ROBERTINE BARRY, BINAASWI (FRANCIS PEGAHMAGABOW), WON ALEXANDER CUMYOW, TERRY FOX and LOTTA HITSCHMANOVA are on the short list of Canadians whose portraits could appear on the next $5 note.

Props to BILL PRISTANSKI, GREG MACEACHERN, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, BOB GORDON, JENN KEAY, NICOLAS DOIRE, GORDON RANDALL, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and JOANNA PLATER.

Wednesday’s question: Who offered the following advice to Senate appointees: “The Senate is like no other beast in Canada. There is nobody who can tell you that they arrived here and understood it. Sit back — no one’s pushing you out of here — for a period of time and intervene where you feel you must, but watch, learn, listen, not only the process, but the people, politics, media, the interplay of the role.”

Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Canadian influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected].

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.