Erskine-Smith is all in, sort of

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we speak to a familiar face in Ottawa who is now the first official entrant in the Ontario Liberal leadership race. But first, dramatic news sure to send Canada-China relations into a renewed diplomatic spiral.

DRIVING THE DAY

PERSONA NON GRATA — Beijing has expelled a Canadian diplomat, JENNIFER LALONDE, from the consulate in Shanghai. Lalonde was asked to leave the country no later than Saturday.

The diplomatic retaliation follows Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY‘s announcement Monday that Chinese diplomat ZHAO WEI would be expelled for his alleged role in a plot to threaten Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG and his extended family in Hong Kong.

— In China’s words: “The false allegation of 'China Interference’ is groundless and a prejection of the alleger’s own image,” read a statement posted online. “The Canadian side places political manipulation above international law, which is a political provocation and doomed to fail. The Canadian side will be responsible for all related consequences.”

The rare diplomatic expulsion from Canada comes a week after The Globe and Mail reported that Zhao, a diplomat based in China’s consulate in Toronto, has been assigned to plot a strategy to intimidate Chong.

The report cited a 2021 top-secret assessment from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service that warned Beijing was looking to target Canadian MPs who supported a motion to declare Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims a genocide.

— What took so long? “Diplomatic retaliation, consular retaliation, economic threats were all vaguely alluded to,” WESLEY WARK wrote on Substack.

“The government may be gun-shy about more hostage diplomacy in the shape of a repeat of the two Michaels’ situation, or some form of Chinese economic sanctions. But it is important that fear not tip the ship.”

For your radar

HE’S IN — NATE ERSKINE-SMITH wants to be Ontario premier. His months-long teasing of a run for provincial Liberal leader came to an end Monday.

Erskine-Smith will formally launch his campaign in Scarborough, Ont., at Variety Village, a children’s charity in the riding next door to the federal seat he’s held since 2015.

The Star was first to report the maverick-ish Toronto MP’s formal entry into the race. He told the paper he won’t run in the provincial byelection in Scarborough–Guildwood that will be triggered by Liberal MPP MITZIE HUNTER‘s resignation as she throws her hat in for Toronto mayor.

— From the horse’s mouth: Playbook got on the phone with Erskine-Smith on Monday afternoon.

— When he decided to run: Last June, sort of. The provincial Liberals’ second-consecutive disastrous third-place finish to DOUG FORD‘s Progressive Conservatives and ANDREA HORWATH‘s NDP got Erskine-Smith thinking about entering the race for a new Grit boss.

There was no eureka moment, though. He says a team slowly coalesced to the point that a run seemed feasible.

— Room for nuance? Erskine-Smith isn’t a high-flying rhetoric kind of guy. He posts long policy-oriented videos on social media that don’t typically go viral. He hosts a podcast, Uncommons, where the whole point is to have long conversations about politics and policy.

Will nuance work in a leadership race or a general election?

“There’s such an utter lack of seriousness and competence to the politics we see at Queen’s Park right now. And so I think across party lines, there is a desire for seriousness, thoughtfulness and competence,” he said.

He also served up a shorter answer: “I guess we’re about to find out.”

— What he’d give up: If he wins the leadership and moves on from his time in Ottawa — as an MP, anyway — Erskine-Smith says he’ll miss raising a “principled independent” voice that occasionally clashed with his own government.

The National Post pegged the MP’s number of dissenting votes at 37 in the first term alone. More recently, he doubted his government’s judgment in invoking the Emergencies Act — but stopped short of voting against (“a speech that will make no one happy,” he said then.).

“I have played an accountability function and pushed the government to be better,” he told Playbook. “I’ll miss being the squeaky wheel in some ways.”

— Endorsement watch: Erskine-Smith says he will enter the provincial race with significant caucus support. He didn’t name names, though in the riding where he is going to launch the local MP is Emergency Preparedness Minister and former Toronto police chief BILL BLAIR.

“You will see that not only have I managed to maintain a strong voice on behalf of my community, but the idea that I’m not a team player will be put to bed when people see I’m surrounded by my team,” he told Playbook.

— He’s not resigning yet: The question of vacating his federal seat is clearly preoccupying the three-term MP. It’s an “active conversation,” he says, and he’s aiming to make a final call when Parliament’s spring sitting ends in June.

There are reasons to stay, including a private member’s bill working its way through the House that would force the government to review its pandemic response and set out a preparedness plan for future crises.

“I’m also cognizant that if I’m unable to do the job on behalf of the riding, then it’s best to step away and commit myself 100 percent to the leadership race,” he said. “There’s no rush to this decision, but it’s an active conversation. And we’re gonna sort it out over the summer and make a decision about the fall.”

— Timelines: The last day to sign up voting Liberal members is Sept. 11. They’ll cast ballots on Nov. 25 and 26. The party will announce the result on Dec. 2.

BYELECTION BONANZA — It’s not clear if Liberal MP YASIR NAQVI will keep his federal seat if — okay, when — he enters the provincial race.

An opening in Ottawa Centre would invite inevitable speculation about MARK CARNEY‘s interest in elected politics. Carney wasn’t on the agenda at the Liberal convention, but he worked the reception circuit — posting up at the National Capital Region caucus bash at Lowertown Brewery in the ByWard Market.

— A long list: The late JIM CARR‘s son, BEN CARR, is the party candidate in Winnipeg South Centre. Carr talked byelection strategy with the PM at the convention.

— The full tally: If both resigned at the end of the spring session, they’d bring to eight the number of federal ridings in need of a byelection, including four vacated by Conservatives: Durham (ERIN O’TOOLE), Portage—Lisgar (CANDICE BERGEN), Calgary Heritage (BOB BENZEN) and Oxford (DAVE MACKENZIE). Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount (MARC GARNEAU) rounds out the list.

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will chair the Cabinet meeting at 10 a.m. He will also attend Question Period later in the afternoon.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto for private meetings, and will virtually attend the Cabinet meeting.

— International Trade Minister MARY NG is in Toronto with India’s Commerce Minister PIYUSH GOYAL to boost bilateral trade. Goyal is the first minister from Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI’s Cabinet to visit Canada since the start of the pandemic.

10:30 a.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak at the 2023 CBTU conference at the Hilton Lac-Leamy Hotel.

2 p.m. Singh will speak to reporters in the House foyer before attending question period.

6 p.m. Liberal MP and provincial leadership candidate-to-be NATE ERSKINE-SMITH is launching his campaign at Variety Village in Scarborough.

6:30 p.m. Former Conservative MP KENNY CHIU will appear via videolink at the House procedure and House affairs committee’s study of foreign election interference nearly six weeks after dropping by the ethics committee’s own study of the issue.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

WILD ROSE SHOWDOWN — Elections Alberta made it official. The campaign’s sole debate between DANIELLE SMITH and RACHEL NOTLEY will fall on May 18. Moderators are Global Edmonton’s SCOTT ROBERTS and CTV News’ ERIN ISFELD.

Playbook was curious what tuned-in Albertans were thinking about the debate.

Our question: Everybody knows it will be all eyes on Calgary come voting day. But as Smith and Notley endure hours of debate prep, which audience is most important to them? Who will they be hoping to persuade on May 18?

RAHIM MOHAMED, political commentator: This is hardly earth-shattering news, but the ubiquitous suburban “soccer mom” will be critical to each campaign — particularly in the suburban ridings along Calgary’s northern reaches. Smith seems to have already clued into this with her recent about-face on $10-a-day childcare (a program she not-too-long-ago castigated as a wasteful federal incursion onto provincial turf).

Expect both Smith and Notley to harp on themes at the debate that hit close to home for suburban mothers. Children’s health will strike a raw nerve for many in the target audience, with the recent RSV outbreak and medication shortages still fresh in many parents’ memories.

SHIFRAH GADAMSETTI, Alberta NDP campaign comms strategist: This election is boiling down to one thing: Trust. Smith is having difficulty holding onto the loyalty of her own base and alienates a larger group of voters each time she tries. The same problems that plagued her on day one of her premiership continue to haunt her. It’s increasingly difficult to position someone who compares vaccinated Canadians to Nazis as a trusted leader.

Lifelong Conservative voters are looking elsewhere for competent leadership and stability, and Notley is becoming the obvious — and perhaps only — choice they’ve got. She’s asked for their trust and they are increasingly willing to give her a second chance.

KARAMVEER LALH, lawyer and commentator: Smith and Notley each have to convince traditional business conservatives that their party is safe to vote for.

This is a significant uphill challenge for the NDP, which needs to convince suburban voters, normally reliably conservative, that returning to the NDP would not pose a risk to the barely recovered economic prosperity of the province.

Smith will do everything it takes to reassure those voters that she represents a return to the status quo, not a radical lurch right as some may fear considering some of her comments relating to the management of the pandemic.

MEDIA ROOM

— Top of Newswatch this morning via the CBC’s DANIEL LEBLANC: Chief justice warns Trudeau that judicial vacancies are putting criminal trials at risk

— And DYLAN ROBERTSON reports today: Joly to announce Canada’s bid for a seat on the U.N. Human Rights Council

— CHIP ZDARSKY reveals the origin story for his “Sex Criminals” comic book series. Zdarsky was on a train to Ottawa in 2012 when he brainstormed the concept with writer MATT FRACTION. His destination: TRUDEAU v. BRAZEAU.

— YOSHUA BENGIO, scientific director at Mila, talked with Front Burner guest host ALEX PANETTA about AI’s Frankenstein moment. “We need to be prudent because we don’t have answers,” he says in a conversation you can also read here.

— The Star’s JOANNA CHIU reports: Canada set to name foreign labs, universities that pose risk to national security.

— Ottawa has announced C$103M for new Indigenous shelters and transitional housing, APTN reports.

— The Trump rape trial is headed to the jury. POLITICO’s ERICA ORDEN outlines the questions jurors will weigh.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Meta tells MPs it’s not Australia all over again.

In news for POLITICO Pro subscribers:

— Meta warns MPs it’s ready to yank Canadian news.
— Appeals court skeptical of oil companies’ arguments in D.C. climate lawsuit.
— Modi minister talks trade in Canada, touts $40T economy by 2047.
— EU targets ships, trucks to block Russia sanctions evasion.
— Republicans want Manchin to bow out, fearful that he may have one more trick up his sleeve.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to former MP MICHAEL LEVITT and B.C. NDP MLA DOUG ROUTLEY.

Spotted: French consul in Los Angeles JULIE DUHAUT-BEDOS, on what The Diplomat gets right and wrong about the diplo-life. One bang-on element, she says, was the importance of the deputy chief of mission to a functioning office.

Comedian MIKE MYERS, boosting employee morale at the Consulate General in New York City and Canada’s Permanent Mission to the U.N. (h/t ANDRÉ FRENETTE).

On the roster of witnesses at Thursday’s House procedure committee: JENNI BYRNE.

Movers and shakers: Rural Economic Development Minister GUDIE HUTCHINGS will need a new chief of staff. ALEX HOWELL is leaving the Hill after nearly a decade for an Ottawa-based gig in the private sector.

— Former Alberta premier JASON KENNEY has added another board of directors to his post-politics second act. Kenney joined Coril Holdings, which controls railway maintenance and commercial real estate assets.

— StrategyCorp principal JOHN PERENACK is lobbying for Therme Group, the Ontario government’s controversial pick to redevelop Ontario Place. Perenack will offer “information briefings” to Environment and Climate Change Canada, Transport Canada, and MPs. His registration notes the project “will sit adjacent to federally regulated waters.”

— Sandstone Group consultant SKYE SCRUTON is now repping Nova Oculus, which wants to bend federal ears on “current treatment methods for age-related macular degeneration.” Relatedly, Liberal MP JUDY SGRO‘s private member’s push for a national strategy for eye care recently received multi-party support in the Commons. Scruton lobbied Sgro on May 2.

— JENNI BYRNE + Associates brought on two new associates: CASSANDRA DUNCAN and STEPHEN WARNER.

Media mentions: Gimlet’s CONNIE WALKER, host of the pod “Stolen: Surviving St. Michael’s,” won a Pulitzer Prize in audio reporting … POLITICO was named a Pulitzer finalist for Supreme Court coverage … SIOBHAN MORRIS was named CTV News Queen’s Park bureau chief.

On the Hill

→ Find the latest on House committee meetings here.

→ Keep track of Senate committee meetings here.

9 a.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX will post a new legislative costing note titled “Increasing the Air Travellers Security Charge.”

9 a.m. Women and Gender Equality and Youth Minister MARCI IEN will hold a press conference in the John A. Macdonald Building to announce measures to strengthen abortion access.

9 a.m. The Senate transport and communications committee meets to study Bill C-29.

9 a.m. The Senate transport and communications committee’s Bill C-18 study will hear from witnesses including LINDA LAUZON of the Consortium of Official Language and Western Standard publisher DEREK FILDEBRANDT.

9 a.m. The Senate national finance committee meets to study Bill C-46 with help from Finance Associate Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT.

9:30 a.m. Senators ROBERT BLACK, DIANE GRIFFIN, FABIAN MANNING and BEV BUSSON are due at the Senate rules committee’s study of committee structures and mandates.

11 a.m. Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO is the guest of honor at the House foreign affairs committee meeting studying Bill S-8.

11 a.m. (12 p.m. ADT) Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON is in New Brunswick to deliver remarks at the Fredericton Chamber of Commerce. He will chase the event with a media availability.

11 a.m. The House transport committee meets to continue probing McKinsey’s role in the creation of the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

11 a.m. The House procedure and House affairs committee resumes its foreign election interference study with writer ANDREW MITROVICA, Alliance Canada Hong Kong’s CHERIE WONG and AI-MEN LAU and Democracy Watch’s DUFF CONACHER.

11 a.m. The House science committee gathers for its second meeting studying the Government of Canada’s graduate scholarship and post-doctoral fellowship programs.

11 a.m. Medical oversight for breast implants is on the agenda for the House health committee.

3:30 p.m. Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation board chair EDWARD JOHNSON visits the House ethics committee for MPs’ probe of foreign interference, democratic threats and intellectual property.

3:30 p.m. The House public safety committee gathers again to take Bill C-21 through clause-by-clause consideration.

3:30 p.m. The House official languages committee meets to study increased Francophone immigration to Canada.

3:30 p.m. Military health system and Canadian Forces Health Services Group services are under scrutiny at the House national defense committee.

3:30 p.m. The House human resources committee meets to study the financialization of housing.

6:30 p.m. Former Conservative MP KENNY CHIU will appear via videolink at the House procedure and House affairs committee’s study of foreign election interference nearly six weeks after dropping by the ethics committee’s own study of the issue.

6:30 p.m. The Senate fisheries committee meets to study Bill C-47.

6:30 p.m. The Senate energy committee meets to study Bill C-47.

— Behind the scenes: The House natural resources committee meets to review an upcoming report; the joint committee on the declaration of emergency meets; the Senate agriculture committee reviews a draft report about Bill S-236.

TRIVIA

Monday’s answer: RICHARD NIXON visited Picton, Ont., in 1957. He was vice-president at the time, and quietly arrived at the local yacht club after sailing from Rochester across Lake Ontario. He recalled the secret visit in a Rideau Hall toast in 1972.

Props to BOB GORDON, PATRICK DION, JENNIFER BABCOCK, MORGAN LARHANT, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, KEVIN BOSCH, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, JEFF LABONTÉ, GERMAINE MALABRE, JOHN ECKER, CAROLYN MCCRIMMON, RYAN HAMILTON, MARC LEBLANC, DEVON BLASKEVITCH, CAMERON RYAN, GORDON RANDALL, DIANNE SHERRIN, HÉLÈNE CHEVALIER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BARRY WOLFISH, and PIERRE JURY.

Today’s question: What do PITSEOLAK ASHOONA, ROBERTINE BARRY, BINAASWI (FRANCIS PEGAHMAGABOW), WON ALEXANDER CUMYOW, TERRY FOX and LOTTA HITSCHMANOVA have in common?

Send your answers to [email protected].

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected].

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