GOP voter edge in Florida keeps growing

Hello and welcome to Wednesday.

Color coordinated — Florida’s transformation into a red state continues to march forward.

Change form — In the last few days, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried has been urging her supporters who may be Republicans or independents to switch their registration ahead of the Aug. 23 Democratic primary so they can vote for her over rival Rep. Charlie Crist.

Growing gap — But the voter registration numbers overall continue to show that Democrats are getting left far behind. It’s just another data point on why Republicans are supremely confident they will dominate the 2022 elections in a state where President Joe Biden is struggling and Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approval numbers remain above water.

Less than a year ago — It was just last fall that Republicans for the first time surged past Democrats in the number of active voters in the state. A “milestone moment” is how one GOP official described it, a byproduct of a sustained effort that had been pushed strongly by DeSantis.

Now take a look at it — The official Division of Elections records show that Republicans hold a nearly 176,000 voter edge over Democrats. That was the number at the end of May. But unofficially it’s now more than 180,000 and it’s expected that Republicans will take their voter registration advantage north of 200,000 this month.

Trend lines — Democrats in the past have tried to suggest routine voter list maintenance and switching active to inactive voters is responsible for Republican gains. But the swelling rolls just point to a state that is trending to the GOP, helped in part by people relocating to Florida from other parts of the country. Democrats maintain leads in Florida’s urban counties but they are now trailing independents (voters officially known as “no party affiliation”) in nearly a dozen counties with GOP majorities.

End of the road — DeSantis’ prediction that Florida will no longer be a battleground state after this year’s election is moving closer into view.

— WHERE’S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

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CAMPAIGN MODE

COASTAL CONFRONTATION — Shadow 2024 race: Newsom vs. DeSantis, by POLITICO’s Jeremy White and Gary Fineout: The fight highlights how two young governors have captured the attention of their respective parties: On one side is Newsom, a progressive and telegenic leader who survived an attempted recall. On the other is DeSantis, who is often heralded as a more disciplined Donald Trump but who also has a penchant for populism and a refusal to back down from a fight. “Most politicians operate best when they have somebody or something to contrast against, and there’s no bigger contrast to Gavin Newsom and California right now than Florida and Ron DeSantis,” said Jim Ross, a Democratic consultant who ran Newsom’s first mayoral campaign.

Rebuttal — Republicans’ response to Newsom is simple: Bring it on. They say they would love a chance to highlight California’s homelessness crisis, shrinking population and other factors that make it a regular GOP punching bag. “Egotistical Gavin Newsom is desperate for relevance and attention,” said Christian Ziegler, vice chair of the Republican Party of Florida and a Sarasota County commissioner. “This ad will have zero impact on anything going on in Florida — both in terms of policy and politics. And the only one losing sleep over this ad won’t be Ron DeSantis, but instead Joe Biden will lose midday nap time over this as it clearly shows that Newsom is positioning himself to take on the Democratic president.”

MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS YES — “Ron DeSantis has raised more than $100 million for his reelection bid. Could he use that money in a presidential race?” by CNN’s Steve Contorno: “[Election lawyer Brett] Kappel believes that the FEC’s inaction against [Rep. Byron] Donalds could give [Gov. Ron] DeSantis a blueprint for how to raise money for a prospective presidential campaign while still running for governor. ‘Every time the FEC deadlocks on one of these innovative financial structures, it’s a big neon sign saying, ‘Do this! You can get away with it!’ Kappel said.”

A lot of money — “An individual involved in Republican fundraising in Florida said the expectation is DeSantis will raise about $200 million this cycle, and he will need less than half of it for his reelection campaign. That will leave DeSantis with at least $100 million in seed money for a super PAC to support a White House bid, giving him a financial head start that at the moment is only rivaled by Trump’s own fundraising machine. Trump’s Save America PAC had $106 million in its coffers as of May. ‘I think that’s totally the plan,’ the individual said. ‘It would be ludicrous of anyone to try to dissuade you that it’s not what’s happening.’”


‘A FINE LINE’ — Abortion fight strains Democratic alliance with Gen Z, by POLITICO’s Elena Schneider: The fear is that an already deflated Democratic base won’t show up in November, particularly the youngest voters, who smashed participation records in the last two elections and backed President Joe Biden by a 25-point margin in 2020. Some Democrats stress that the Biden administration and Congress need to do more to show their rage — and willingness to take significant action — to mirror the passion seen among young people, three-quarters of whom support abortion being generally legal.

Weighing-in — “There’s a fine line between the recent events pushing someone to never vote again or pushing someone to vote with that righteous anger and bring friends with them,” said Maxwell Frost, a 25-year-old Democrat who is running for a Florida congressional seat. “It’s up to our leaders to decide which direction that’s going to go in. When they show they’re in the fight, using all the resources to fight for the most vulnerable in our community … but we need more right now.”

CONSOLIDATION — “Bryan Jones withdraws from 1st congressional district race, throws support to Lombardo,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Kevin Robinson: “A candidate for Florida’s 1st Congressional District announced he is withdrawing from the race, in part, to avoid splitting votes with another military veteran running for the same office. Bryan Jones, a U.S. Air Force Special Operations pilot and Fort Walton Beach native, announced his formal withdrawal from the race Tuesday. Jones left active duty service in order to campaign against U.S. Rep Matt Gaetz, but said in a statement that continuing his campaign ‘is no longer in the best interest of serving the district’ in light of U.S. Marine Corps veteran Mark Lombardo also entering the race.”

A 2023 RACE TO WATCH — The campaign of Jacksonville mayoral candidate Donna Deegan is touting a new poll that shows the Democrat leading the field of eight potential candidates running in the race to replace term-limited and Republican Mayor Lenny Curry. Deegan is a former television journalist and has been a candidate for Congress. The poll released Wednesday by FrederickPolls shows that 30 percent of those polled back Deegan, which is a 13-point lead over two other declared and potential candidates, including state Sen. Audrey Gibson. The poll has a margin of error of four percent. This Jacksonville race could become a bright spot for Florida Democrats in what is likely to be a rough overal midterm election. “This poll shows the real connection and confidence Donna has built across the Jacksonville community,” said Pat McCollough, Deegan’s campaign manager in a statement.

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Latino Victory Fund, the political action committee looking to grow Latino representation, is endorsing five legislative candidates in Florida on Wednesday, including state Sen. Janet Cruz, Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith as well as state Senate candidates Eunic Ortiz and Janelle Perez and House candidate A.J. D’Amico. D’Amico is the lone candidate with a primary opponent. … League of Conservation Voters Action Fund on Tuesday endorsed four congressional candidates in Florida: State Sen. Annette Taddeo for Florida’s 27th, Maxwell Frost for Florida’s 10th, former Florida emergency management director Jared Moskowitz for Florida’s 23rd and former Obama administration official Eric Lynn for Florida’s 13th. Taddeo, Frost and Moskowitz have Democratic primaries. … The Florida Home Builders Association endorsed Senate President Wilton Simpson for agriculture commissioner on Tuesday.

— “3 more inmates sentenced for election-related crimes in local voter fraud investigation,” by The Gainesville Sun’s Andrew Caplan

— “Scotty Moore back on primary ballot for Congress, judge rules,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Ryan Gillespie

— “Lawsuit filed challenging Austin Brownfield’s eligibility in HD 57,” by Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

NEXT ROUND — “Injunction blocking new Florida abortion law short-lived, as state appeals,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Lawrence Mower: “Florida’s 15-week abortion ban was temporarily halted Tuesday morning, then quickly restored, after lawyers for the state appealed a Leon County circuit judge’s injunction he promised last week. In a 68-page order, Circuit Judge John C. Cooper said he was bound by Florida Supreme Court precedent, which ruled in 1989 that Florida’s right to privacy, enshrined in the state Constitution, protected the right to an abortion. Gov. Ron DeSantis is trying to overturn that precedent. ‘This Court must follow the Florida Supreme Court’s precedents on the right to privacy as those precedents currently exist, not as they might exist in the future,’ Cooper wrote.”

MAY WANT TO RUN IT BY PLAZA FIRST — “Election 2022: Passidomo, unopposed, has big plans as next Florida Senate president,” by Fort Myers News-Press’s Charles Runnells: “That will make her only the third woman to lead the Senate. She was selected for the job in October 2021 and will take the reins after the 2022 election, as long as Republicans keep control of the 40-member Senate. ‘The next two years — God willing — I will serve as president of the Senate,’ said [Sen. Kathleen] Passidomo, who represents Florida’s Senate District 28. ‘That role is management of the entire Senate and setting the tone for the next two years, setting the direction. I have a number of initiatives that I want to undertake.’ The new job gives her a lot more influence on what gets done in Tallahassee. ‘The president is in charge,’ she said, ‘and that’s what I’ll be doing.’”

BY THE NUMBERS — Florida brings in $741M more than forecast in May, by POLITICO’s Matt Dixon: Florida brought in $741 million more than originally expected in May, a huge uptick driven in part by inflation that is contributing to the state bringing in record revenues. The new numbers, published by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, show nearly 80 percent of the increase is driven by sales tax collections, a dynamic driven, in part, by rising prices due to inflation.

— “Tallahassee federal courthouse named for Judge Joseph Woodrow Hatchett after partisan delay,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s James Call

— “State data: Nearly 5K COVID-19 workers’ comp claims filed in 2020 remain open,” by Florida Politics’ Christine Jordan Sexton

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

AWFUL — “‘Mass fentanyl poisoning event’: Laced drugs in Gadsden claim nine lives over holiday weekend,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Ana Goñi-Lessan: “A bad batch of drugs left 9 people dead in Gadsden County over the holiday weekend, according to local officials. After two women were found dead of an apparent overdose Friday, the Gadsden County Sheriff’s Office put out an alert seeking the public’s help to warn others of the possibly polluted drug supply. An autopsy is pending for a final determination as to the cause of death. ‘Here in Gadsden, I have not heard of any opioid poisoning here in the county as it relates to fentanyl,’ said Sheriff Morris A. Young in a Facebook video. ‘But on Friday, it was very apparent that it was here in the county, and we had about 15 calls related to it.’”

AFTERMATH — “Surfside a year later: Memories of condo collapse leave hole in hundreds of hearts as pain, questions persist,” by Palm Beach Post’s Valentina Palm: “The year that has passed since Champlain Towers South collapsed has been the hardest of Kevin Spiegel’s life. ‘One year later, time has not healed my broken heart,’ said Spiegel, who lost Judy, his wife of 39 years, when part of the 12-story condominium tower crumbled to the ground on June 24, 2021, killing 98 people. The hospital executive spoke this past June 24 to the hundreds of people who gathered for the one-year memorial, on a patio next to the remains of the building at 88th Street and Collins Avenue. ‘Like all of you, I carry this extreme void with me, because Judy’s life was taken away from us so abruptly.’”


TO COURT — “Sarasota’s Big Olaf Creamery sued over death of woman in ongoing listeria outbreak,” by Sarasota Herald-Tribune’s Laura Finaldi: “Big Olaf Creamery is being sued over the death of a woman whose estate alleges she contracted listeria from its ice cream. According to a lawsuit filed in federal court on Tuesday, the estate of Illinois resident Mary Billman is suing the Sarasota company over her death, which the plaintiffs allege happened because she ate contaminated ice cream. According to the lawsuit, Billman allegedly ate contaminated ice cream at Big Olaf’s Pinecraft location at 3350 Bahia Vista St. in Sarasota on Jan. 18 on a visit to the area. Her daughter lives in Hollywood and Billman herself used to live in Sarasota.”

— “A Lakeland 13-year-old used a protest at Munn Park. She was arrested soon after,” by The Ledger’s Gary White

— “Former JEA execs begin aggressive defense against criminal charges,” by Florida Times-Union’s Nate Monroe

— “Orlando police seek videos after panic at Lake Eola fireworks show,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Monivette Cordeiro, Leslie Postal and Kevin Spear

— “Nude beach: Nudists aim to break skinny dip record at Blind Creek Beach, St. Lucie County,” by Treasure Coast Newspapers’ Laurie K. Blandford

— “‘She’s a trouper’: Doctors will amputate Taylor Co. girl’s leg following shark attack,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Christopher Cann

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— “Boy struck by lightning is given replica of Mighty Thor’s hammer by Florida rescuers,” by Charlotte Observer’s Mark Price: “A boy who survived a lightning strike was discharged from a Florida hospital this week holding a replica of Mighty Thor’s hammer. The symbolic gift — Thor is the Norse God of Thunder — was presented to 11-year-old Levi Stock by the same Hillsborough County deputies who responded to the initial call in Riverview, southeast of Tampa. Photos posted by the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office show the ‘strong kiddo’ was wielding the hammer from his hospital bed Monday, July 4. He was discharged later that day, according to his father, Derek Stock.”

BIRTHDAYS: Joe Gruters, state senator and chair of the Republican Party of Florida … former state Rep. MaryLynn Magar … The Associated Press’ Joe Reedy ... Caleb Orr, former member of Sen. Marco Rubio’s staff ... POLITICO’s Anita Kumar