How consultants are thinking about AI for 2024

TOP LINE

Hundreds of political consultants walk into a bar … and no, that’s not a joke. Last week, political campaign professionals gathered in California for the annual American Association of Political Consultants’ Pollies conference, where they discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the industry heading into the 2024 cycle.

Here’s what’s on their minds heading into a monumental presidential election year.

— Artificial intelligence: Artificial intelligence will seep its way into campaigns this cycle. Given that it’s still emerging and developing, campaigns are toying with how to best use the technology.

“It’s going to be tough for you guys to use this in a fully political context, I’ll be totally honest,” said Dave Leichtman, director of corporate civic responsibility at Microsoft, during a panel on ChatGPT.

He pointed to the fact that the program is trained to lay out facts, rather than have a political discussion or help generate persuasive tactics that campaigns use when reaching voters. (When asking ChatGPT certain political questions, it may refuse to answer the question, or add a word of caution reminding the user that it’s an AI language model.)

Still, there are potential benefits to using such technology in a creative context. It can be helpful for brainstorming copy or creating AI-generated images — as long as it’s disclosed that they’re not real. Leichtman said that if campaigns do decide to use AI to help draft a fundraising email, for example, it’s good for outlining, but then it’s critical to go back and rewrite it to ensure it’s accurate.

“AI is here to assist you, not to do your job,” he said.

But integrating AI into campaigns raises the need to train or hire staff that knows how to prompt the program in an effective way — depending on how a question is asked, the program provides different answers. And even if a team isn’t planning on using AI this cycle, some panelists said that it’s important to have conversations now about how it will be used in workflow and team structures. As the technology progresses, campaigns in the future may be able to use private models to parse through data it collects to inform its messaging.

“It just sort of changes the human role in this, we can move away from crunching data,” said Vance Reavie, founder and CEO of Junction AI. “Let the machine do that, surface those most important insights up. … That’s where the human plays the role, saying this is the one that’s relevant to the message I need.”

— Advertising: In 2022, broadcast was still the dominant medium for advertising. But can the growth of connected TV — such as streaming services — challenge that? Already, some target demographics, like young voters, are less likely to be watching traditional media. Some strategists on panels about crafting an advertising media mix expected more advertising dollars to be allocated on CTV in the upcoming cycle.

Another prominent way to reach voters is one that’s a bit more tried and true: direct mail. A white paper presented at the conference by the United States Postal Service and AAPC found that 2022 saw a 34 percent increase in political mail volume compared to 2018. The research suggests that such advertising is even beneficial for an unlikely group — younger voters. Although Gen Z-ers check their mail less frequently, “they have a unique relationship with direct mail that runs counter to the narrative of a digital-first culture,” the report says. Sixty-two percent of Gen Z voters “trust direct mail more than online political advertising — compared to 42 percent of older voters.”

— Polling: Although polling has been under a critical eye for years, pollsters on a panel about getting the most out of polling emphasized that the work they do is distinct from polls conducted for media outlets or by institutions of higher education.

“A poll is not meant to predict the outcome of an election,” Democratic pollster Jill Normington said on the panel. “This isn’t Vegas, and we’re not in the business of trying to figure out who’s going to win and who’s going to lose. … Our work is a decision-making tool inside of a campaign.”

Panelists also stressed the need for campaigns to look at potential swing voters, or the nearly half of adults who are independents, heading into 2024. With Democrats and Republicans each having just a quarter of adults affiliated with the party, “solidifying your base isn’t going to necessarily win any elections right now,” Brett Loyd of the Bullfinch Group said on the panel.

Happy Monday. Reach me at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Kentucky primary: 22

Days until the Mississippi primary: 106

Days until the Louisiana primary: 173

Days until the 2023 election: 197

Days until the 2024 election: 561

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

2024 WATCH — Republican North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson announced his bid for governor. Robinson, who’s made a number of statements against abortion and the LGBTQ community, “will need to do what many high-profile, controversial Republicans failed to accomplish in last year’s midterms — overcome his past comments that could be deeply unpopular with general election voters,” POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro and Natalie Allison write. Read more on Saturday’s campaign launch from The News & Observer’s Avi Bajpai.

… Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is expected to launch his Senate bid on Thursday, per POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Ally Mutnick.

… Illinois Republican Darren Bailey, who lost his bid for governor last year, is mulling a bid against Republican Rep. Mike Bost in IL-12, POLITICO’s Shia Kapos scoops. Bailey talked to former President Donald Trump about a potential run last week.

… Former state Sen. Curtis Hertel and Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, both Democrats, are considering campaigns to succeed Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in MI-07 as she runs for Senate, per the AP’s Joey Cappelletti.

SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — Walter Berbrick is the 15th Democrat to join the field for the RI-01 special election taking place later this year. Berbrick was a Navy intelligence officer and professor at the U.S. Naval War College. The Providence Journal’s Katherine Gregg has more.

IT’S BACK — A bill in the Montana state legislature that would establish a top-two primary for only for next year’s Senate election, which is targeting Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s election, was voted down last week. But the Montana State News Bureau’s Holly Michels flags that language establishing a top-two primary in a Senate or House race was added to another bill.

FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Democrats Serve, which supports Democratic candidates with public service backgrounds, announced a slate of congressional endorsements. Those include Gabe Amo, a former special assistant to the president who’s running for this year’s RI-01 special election; Rep. Yadira Caraveo in CO-08; Aditya Pai in CA-45, which is currently represented by Republican Rep. Michelle Steel; David Kim, who’s running for the open CA-47 seat; Josh Riley, who lost in his bid for NY-19 last year but is running again; and Rep. Abigail Spanberger of VA-07. All of these districts (with the exception of RI-01) are targets for either the NRCC or DCCC.

… LGBTQ+ Victory Fund issued its first endorsement of the cycle to Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). Baldwin was the first openly LGBTQ person elected to the Senate in 2012.

Presidential Big Board

MAYBE MAYBE MAYBE — T-minus one day until President Joe Biden is expected to launch his reelection campaign … or maybe not. “It’s not just the president who sees the pluses and minuses of launching a full campaign roughly 18 months out from the November presidential election,” writes POLITICO’s Christopher Cadelago, Holly Otterbein and Jonathan Lemire. “Inside the White House, and even among his tight-knit circle, there’s been disagreement over when to formally commence. … Amid all the breathlessness, several Democrats outside the White House told POLITICO they are fine with him waiting until late summer or even the fall.”

… Julie Chavez Rodriguez, senior adviser and assistant to the president, is set to be named as Biden’s campaign manager, CBS News’ Ed O’Keefe and Fin Gómez report. (Read more from The Washington Post’s Tyler Pager and Michael Scherer.)

CATTLE CALL — Republican presidential hopefuls descended upon Iowa over the weekend for the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition’s spring kick-off event. Speakers who are running for president, or are expected to, included Trump (by video), former Vice President Mike Pence, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and businessperson Perry Johnson. Read more on the hopefuls’ speeches — and their stances on abortion — from the Des Moines Register’s Katie Akin and Galen Bacharier.

TIMELINE CHECK — Pence told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that he would plan to announce his 2024 presidential decision “well before” late June.

… “I think everybody will have to make a decision by Fourth of July,” Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

CASH DASH — Billionaire GOP donor Thomas Peterffy, who recently said his support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is “on hold,” donated $1 million to Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC. POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt writes that Youngkin has paused considering a 2024 bid, but “over the last few weeks he has drawn attention from major donors while fundraising for his PAC, which is planning to spend money in the upcoming Virginia state legislative elections.”

PRIME PRIMARY — Kansas will hold a presidential primary next March, rather than its typical caucus. The Kansas Reflector’s Rachel Mipro writes that it is estimated to cost up to $5 million for 2024, and officials hope the different method — which hasn’t been used in decades — will boost turnout.

POLL POSITION

— Trump continues to lead in Republican primary polls. He earns 46 percent of support, followed by DeSantis with 31 percent, in an NBC News poll conducted by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies. Pence has 6 percent, and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, Scott and Hutchinson earn 3 percent each (292 Republican primary voters, April 14-18, MoE +/- 5.99 percentage points).

… In a poll from The Wall Street Journal, conducted by Impact Research and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, Trump has 48 percent and DeSantis has 24 percent. Haley has 5 percent, followed by Scott with 3 percent and Ramaswamy with 2 percent. Other candidates registered with 1 percent or less (600 likely Republican primary voters, April 11-17, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).

— An internal poll from Never Back Down, the super PAC backing a potential presidential run for DeSantis, conducted by WPA Intelligence, shows DeSantis leading Trump 46 percent to 35 percent in a head-to-head matchup, Deseret News’ Suzanne Bates reports (504 Utah Republican primary voters, April 18-20, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).

AS SEEN ON TV

— Duty and Honor PAC, a Democratic group affiliated with the Senate Majority PAC, is investing early in the race for West Virginia Senate. “Joe Manchin‘s independent approach is making a difference for us,” the ad says. Last week, Republican group One Nation, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, put out an ad hitting Manchin.

— Republican Kentucky gubernatorial hopeful Kelly Craft is again swinging at primary opponent Attorney General Daniel Cameron, this time with an ad emphasizing her support of law enforcement. It comes after Cameron released his own law enforcement ad last week.

STAFFING UP

— Republican Adam Laxalt, who unsuccessfully ran for Nevada Senate, is chair of Never Back Down. Laxalt chaired Trump’s 2020 campaign in Nevada.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “It’s tough to take on Donald Trump if you can’t take down Donald Duck.” (Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) to The New Yorker on DeSantis)