Playbook: How Kevin McCarthy proved his naysayers wrong

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — FRANKLIN FOER has written the first comprehensive insider account of the Biden White House. The book, “The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White House and the Struggle for America’s Future” ($30), will be released Sept. 12. We have the first look at the cover:

JUST POSTED — JMart’s latest: “Is Trump Inevitable? Some in the GOP Are Starting To Wonder”

LAST NIGHT AT THE WHITE HOUSE — President JOE BIDEN gave South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL a guitar signed by DON McLEAN — and Yoon shocked everyone by bringing down the house with a rendition of “American Pie.” Read on for a glimpse at the star-studded guest list

HE WHO MUST NOT BE NAMED — “GOP study on poor 2022 election showing doesn’t mention Trump,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer

THE NEW McCARTHY ERA — After KEVIN McCARTHY won the speakership in January, one of his top critics quietly offered an unexpected olive branch. During the fight over the gavel, arch-conservative Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.) had vowed never to back McCarthy, citing a personal beef that left him thinking the would-be speaker was untrustworthy.

But when McCarthy agreed to decentralize power to conservatives, Good voted “present” with other Freedom Caucus skeptics to allow the California Republican to clinch the gavel. The two then met in the new speaker’s office, where Good promised McCarthy to do his best to support him, stay united behind him and make sure he was successful in taking on the Biden administration.

“We talked about our shared goals and how we plan to work together for the best of the conference … and the best of the country,” Good later told Playbook of their meeting.

There was a time when many House watchers — us included — speculated that McCarthy was a dead man walking. After all, he’d become speaker in the most humiliating way imaginable, begging conservatives to give him a shot at his dream job over the course of 15 ballots.

Now, nearly four months in, McCarthy appears to have proven his naysayers wrong — at least for now. By passing a debt ceiling increase with Republican votes yesterday, he clinched a major victory that eluded his GOP predecessors PAUL RYAN and JOHN BOEHNER, who struggled mightily to navigate internal tensions between conservatives and moderates.

Among those who voted yesterday to increase the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling alongside a package of spending cuts and conservative policy prescriptions: Good, who has spent his career railing against GOP sellouts who weren’t doing enough to tackle federal spending, and more than a dozen other House Republicans who had never before voted for a debt limit increase.

What’s been just as astounding is the praise McCarthy’s gotten from the members who drove the hardest bargain during the gavel fight — and stand ready to expel him should he take a false step. The plaudits continued yesterday, even after McCarthy engaged in the kind of late-night, closed-door, last-minute dealmaking that they’d demanded an end to.

“Look, we’re passing things — big things,” said Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.), the House Freedom Caucus chair, when asked to assess McCarthy’s leadership. “Isn’t that a sign of success?”

Those words floor Republicans who were around for previous GOP majorities. BRENDAN BUCK, a former top adviser to Boehner and Ryan who regularly tussled with conservatives, said it’s “remarkable” that McCarthy is not only getting Republicans to vote for a debt-limit hike but that “no one seems to be using that against him.”

“This is something that none of us had been able to do,” Buck said. “It’s a very impressive achievement for him — particularly given how many people we know were out to get him at the start.”

THE $31.4 TRILLION QUESTION: How long will the kumbaya last? Uniting his members around a GOP-only proposal is one thing. Convincing his members to vote for a deal negotiated with a Democratic White House and Senate is another thing entirely.

Already there are signs of trouble ahead. Freedom Caucus member RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.) told Playbook that in a bid to win their support, McCarthy promised conservatives late Tuesday night that the debt ceiling bill they voted on yesterday was a floor, not a ceiling. McCarthy, he said, told them he would personally oppose and fight against any debt ceiling agreement that doesn’t include all of the red-meat provisions in the House bill.

Said McCarthy spokesman MARK BEDNAR about Norman’s claim: “The speaker’s job is to fight for the House’s priorities, and the House has spoken. No one should be surprised that he’s going to fight for what the House passed.”

Norman credited McCarthy’s collaborative, talk-it-out style with keeping the GOP ranks together so far. But he told us things would change quickly if McCarthy moves to water down the deal in the coming weeks: “That,” he told us, “will be a problem.”

It will also be inevitable, given that Democrats will never swallow many of the provisions in the GOP bill. (Things like repealing student loan forgiveness, gutting the Inflation Reduction Act and trimming eligibility for social programs stand to be rejected outright.)

“He’s going to have to eat a crap sandwich at some point,” Buck said. “And if eating that crap sandwich happens when he’s got his members fully backing him, versus when they are already nipping at him, that’s a very big difference.”

For now, McCarthy is sitting pretty. He’s still no NANCY PELOSI — none of his members are afraid of him or worried about retaliation if they cross him. His strategies, it often seems, are a whisper away from crumbling.

But his allies say the grueling speakership battle actually paid dividends. It forced Republicans to work together in ways they hadn’t done before, they argue, and his move to put conservatives on the powerful House Rules and Appropriations panels eased tensions and allowed many on the right to give him the benefit of the doubt when he hasn’t lived up to his promises.

“Kevin is going to be speaker a lot longer than people think,” said one senior McCarthy ally.

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

HOW THE PRESIDENT GETS HIS NEWS — “Joe Biden’s Secret Oval Office TV,” by Eli Stokols for POLITICO Magazine

NIGHT OF THE HUNTER — “Hunter Biden lawyers meet with Justice Department,” by CNN’s Paula Reid, Evan Perez, Aileen Graef and Steven Williams

WHAT TO EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT — “‘There will be Clarence Thomas jokes,’” by our West Wing Playbook colleagues Lauren Egan and Eli Stokols

PHOTO OF THE DAY

PLAYBOOK READS

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE PRICE OF DISSENT — The Montana state House voted along party lines yesterday to ban Democratic state Rep. ZOOEY ZEPHYR from the chamber for the rest of the session, though she’ll still be able to vote remotely. Following Tennessee Republicans’ (short-lived) expulsion of two Dems, it’s the latest example of statehouse Republicans in a supermajority reacting with unprecedented harshness to aggressive criticism from the left. And it’s poised to become another national flashpoint over speech and democracy.

Zephyr, who’s transgender, is being punished for her support of protesters who disrupted the legislature by demonstrating against anti-transgender legislation — and for telling her Republican colleagues that they had “blood on [their] hands.” Zephyr said yesterday that it wasn’t figurative: She’d heard from a family whose trans child had attempted suicide while watching a hearing. More from the Billings Gazette

All in the family: Conservative Gov. GREG GIANFORTE’s son DAVID is a gay/nonbinary 32-year-old — and is lobbying his dad against signing anti-LGBTQ bills, the Montana Free Press’ Mara Silvers reports.

BIDEN ADMIN STEPS UP THE FIGHT — “Department of Justice challenges Tennessee’s ban on transgender care for minors,” by the Nashville Tennessean’s Melissa Brown

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — “As Rail Profits Soar, Blocked Crossings Force Kids to Crawl Under Trains to Get to School,” by ProPublica’s Topher Sanders and Dan Schwartz and Gray Television/InvestigateTV’s Joce Sterman

MEDIAWATCH

FOX IN THE DOGHOUSE — The reports continue to dribble out about just what went wrong between TUCKER CARLSON and Fox News.

  • NYT’s Jim Rutenberg, Jeremy Peters and Michael Schmidt write that “highly offensive and crude” messages Carlson had sent made their way to top Fox execs and the board of directors for the first time just one day before the Dominion defamation trial was set to begin, helping to trigger his ouster. LACHLAN MURDOCH saw it as a “business decision.”
  • WaPo’s Sarah Ellison and Jeremy Barr have complementary reporting that the Murdochs came to see Carlson as “more trouble than he was worth” — from his Ukraine views to his offscreen behavior.

Last night, in a video posted to Twitter, Carlson himself made his first public statements since being fired. He didn’t address his departure directly, but ended with this: “Where can you still find Americans saying true things? There aren’t many places left, but there are some, and that’s enough. As long as you can hear the words, there is hope. See you soon.”

Where could we see Carlson soon? Insider’s Aaron Short runs down the possibilities, from Newsmax to talk radio to Blaze Media to an independent venture, as we prepare for “a new realignment in conservative media.”

But Carlson won’t be Fox’s last headache:

  • CBS’ Melissa Quinn reports that ABBY GROSSBERG’s lawyer said her team has gotten inquiries from law enforcement and federal investigators about election fraud discussions among RUDY GIULIANI, MARIA BARTIROMO and SIDNEY POWELL.
  • ABC’s Olivia Rubin reports that as Smartmatic’s defamation case against Fox ramps up, the two sides agreed yesterday that by May 10, Fox will turn over more evidence related to the Murdochs, VIET DINH and RAJ SHAH.

2024 WATCH

HE’S (ALMOST) RUNNING — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS is planning to launch an exploratory committee, his first official step in running for president, in mid-May, NBC’s Matt Dixon and Natasha Korecki scooped. It could come as soon as May 11, as his team seeks to beat back the growing narrative about Trump momentum and DeSantis stumbles — or worries that he’s missed his moment.

In the meantime, though, DeSantis’ bad press continues: Billionaire GOP megadonor JOHN CATSIMATIDIS slammed him to the Washington Examiner’s Gabe Kaminsky. “Why would I support somebody to become president of the United States that doesn’t return phone calls?” he fumed.

Apart from the presidential run, DeSantis is embroiled with an increasingly antagonistic fight with Disney, which culminated yesterday in a federal lawsuit. NYT’s Charles Homans warns that “corporations that might have been leery of such fights a generation ago are now more likely to see them as inevitable, and in some cases even a source of market advantage.”

And at least one presidential rival spies an opening: “Hey @Disney, my home state will happily accept your 70,000+ jobs if you want to leave Florida,” tweeted NIKKI HALEY. “We’ve got great weather, great people, and it’s always a great day in South Carolina! SC’s not woke, but we’re not sanctimonious about it either.”

Yes: sanctimonious.

JUST POSTED — “The Tiny, Tight-Lipped Circle of Aides Guiding Biden 2024,” by NYT’s Reid Epstein and Katie Glueck: Spoiler alert: It’s the Quint plus JEFF ZIENTS.

MORE POLITICS

DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE — Today could prove a pivotal day in the battle to control the Senate in 2025: West Virginia Gov. JIM JUSTICE is expected to jump into the Senate race, giving the GOP what polls show is their strongest challenger to Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent. The billionaire is making a “special announcement” — with his English bulldog BABYDOG, natch — at his Greenbrier Resort. Of course, he won’t have a clear path to the nomination: Rep. ALEX MOONEY is gunning for it too. Preview from WaPo

At the same time, Democratic Sen. JOE MANCHIN is working harder than ever to separate himself from his party. Just yesterday, he was the only Dem to vote with Republicans in overturning an EPA regulation on emissions from heavy-duty trucks, per CNN. (It passed 50-49, and will likely head to the House — and then Biden’s veto.)

And in another Congressional Review Act move, Manchin co-sponsored Sen. RICK SCOTT’s (R-Fla.) resolution to undo Biden’s suspension of solar power tariffs, per The Hill. (That also landed the support of vulnerable Ohio Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN.)

KNIVES OUT FOR ADAM SULLIVAN — “He Calls the Shots for New York’s Governor. He Lives in Colorado,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos and Jeffery Mays: “Now, as the de facto head of [Gov. KATHY] HOCHUL’s political operation, Mr. Sullivan has been deputized to revive New York’s embattled state Democratic Party. And the outcome could have significant implications for Democrats’ chances to retake the House. Even by the Zoom era’s standards, the breadth of Mr. Sullivan’s influence from afar is unusual, puzzling much of New York’s clubby political establishment and exasperating many on Ms. Hochul’s own team.”

CONGRESS

SURPRISE MARIJUANA LOSS — “GOP revolts against bill to study cannabis to help veterans with pain and PTSD,” by CNN’s Ted Barrett: “The vote on the procedural measure was 57-42, falling shy of the 60 [needed] to move forward. The move came after a ‘spirited debate’ in the Senate Republican policy lunch, according to Sen. JOHN CORNYN … [I]f the bill passed the Senate, it could be perceived as a big win for Sen. JON TESTER.”

JULIE SU CLEARS ONE HURDLE — “Senate panel advances Su for Labor secretary,” by Roll Call’s Caitlin Reilly and K. Sophie Will

TRUMP CARDS

TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS — “E. Jean Carroll Gives Jury Graphic Testimony of Rape Trump Denies,” by Bloomberg’s Erik Larson

DOCU-DRAMA — “Trump lawyers rail against DOJ in letter, reveal foreign leader briefings may be among classified documents taken from White House,” by CNN’s Paula Reid, Jeremy Herb, Katelyn Polantz and Zachary Cohen

JUDICIARY SQUARE

NOTHING TO SEE HERE — “Supreme Court on ethics issues: Not broken, no fix needed,” by AP’s Jessica Gresko: “The statement signed by [all nine] justices essentially said that they consult a wide variety of sources to address ethical issues, decide for themselves when a conflict requires that they step away from a case and file the same annual financial disclosure reports as other judges.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

MORE LEAK FALLOUT — “Air Force suspends leaders of alleged Pentagon leaker Jack Teixeira’s unit,” by CBS’ Eleanor Watson

MORE LEAK REVELATIONS — “Russia can fund war in Ukraine for another year despite sanctions, leaked document says,” by WaPo’s Adam Taylor

STRANGE ONE — “The Mystery of a Former CIA Legend Going ‘Foreign Agent’ for Ukraine,” by The Daily Beast’s Shannon Vavra: “BOB BAER, a former CIA agent whose memoir inspired an award-winning movie starring GEORGE CLOONEY, registered as a foreign agent for Ukraine in March. Then things got weird.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Elon Musk was on the Hill.

Todd Young showed off the (giant) Borg-Warner Trophy ahead of the Indy 500 next month.

Brian Kolfage, an associate of Steve Bannon, was sentenced to more than four years in prison for defrauding donors to an effort to build a border wall.

Pras Michel, a former member of the Fugees, was convicted for his role in a foreign-influence scheme.

Kamala Harris will take part in an MTV Entertainment Studios mental health event on May 18 at California State University, Dominguez Hills.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the state dinner last night: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Mark Milley, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Reps. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), Judy Chu (D-Calif.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) and Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.), Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, Angelina Jolie and Maddox Jolie-Pitt, Seung Min Kim and mom Mi Ryung Chang, Charlie Baker, Joanna and Chip Gaines, Chloe Kim, Lea Salonga, Jeff Zients, Mike Donilon, Jen O’Malley Dillon, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, Ben LaBolt, Mitch Landrieu, Steve Ricchetti and Susan Rice. Full guest list

— At the home of Helen and Joe Milby, Keenan Austin Reed, Tiffany Moore and Symone Sanders-Townsend threw a White House Correspondents’ Dinner week kickoff event. SPOTTED: Shawn Townsend, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, John McCarthy, Louisa Terrell, Reps. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), SBA Administrator Isabel Guzman, Dan Koh, Steve Clemons, Gabe Amo, Stephanie Young, Crystal Carson, Kirsten Allen, Tim Miller, Liz Johnson, Tara Setmayer, Erin Wilson, Erica Loewe, D.C. Councilmember Christina Henderson, Vincent Evans, Rachel Scott, Jasmine Wright, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Kevin Young, Anna Palmer, Tyler Pager, Sabrina Siddiqui and Alethia Jackson.

— The Congressional Franchise Caucus launched yesterday at a reception with the International Franchise Association and co-chairs Reps. Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) and Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas). The big attractions were Ronald McDonald and Grimace, along with food from McDonald’s, Taco Bell and Dunkin’ and franchisees from The Little Gym and GymGuyz. Also SPOTTED: Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), Tim Walberg (R-Mich.), Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) and Cory Mills (R-Fla.). Pic of Van Duyne with the mascots … Gottheimer and Ronald

— The Recording Academy hosted its annual Grammys on the Hill Awards at the Hamilton last night and honored Pharrell Williams alongside Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) for their contributions to supporting music creators’ rights. Performers included Nile Rodgers, and presenters included Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.). SPOTTED: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), Reps. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.), Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Jason Smith (R-Mo.), Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.).

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition has announced the creation of the Conservative Foreign Policy Study Group, which consists of a group of conservative foreign policy and national security experts who served in the Trump administration. The organization has also added former Defense Secretary Mark Esper to their national advisory council.

TRANSITIONS — National Public Affairs is adding Matt Dailer as VP of political strategy and Don Chon as director of photography. Dailer most recently was campaign manager for Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) reelect, and is an RNC alum. Chon is a veteran cinematographer. … Juven Jacob will be director of operations and policy adviser for Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio). He previously was director of operations and scheduling for Rep. David Trone (D-Md.). …

… Simon Behrmann is joining Edelman Global Advisory as managing director of global integrated campaigns. He most recently was at Scarlet Oak Strategies and Red Cedar Global. … Pete Welsch is now managing director of payments at NationBuilder. He’s an Obama White House, DNC and Media Matters for America alum. … Elizabeth Hale Simpson is now director at Sirona Strategies. She previously was health advocacy manager at Woodberry Associates.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Caitlin Buchanan, policy adviser to Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), and Sam Yntema, director at the Vogel Group, got married Saturday at St. David’s Episcopal, with a reception at the Perry Belmont House. They met at Sewanee: The University of the South. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice … Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) … Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) … Christopher Garcia … White House’s Hannah Kim and Jamie Citron (both 4-0) … The Intercept’s James Risen … WaPo’s Dana Milbank … Bruce Mehlman … POLITICO’s Aubree Weaver and Francesca Porreca … Erica Elliott Richardson … Michael Crittenden of the Levinson Group … Will Marshall of the Progressive Policy Institute … Austin Hacker … Bloomberg’s Mike Shepard … BP’s Downey Magallanes … Sean Dugan of America’s Health Insurance Plans … The Economist’s Jon Fasman … Global Situation Room’s Brett Bruen … DNC’s Mansoor Abdul Khadir … Alexandra De Luca … Goldman Sachs’ Lee Brenner … Norberto Salinas … David Hudson of the Motion Picture Association … EMILY’s List’s Christina Reynolds and Callie Fines … Dan Lindner … former Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.) … Connor Walsh of Build Digital … Bryan Denton … U.S. News & World Report’s Lauren Camera … Alicia “Lisa” Shepard … Will Brown of the U.S. Travel Association … Doug Rediker … Mary-Kate Fisher … Dan Gerstein … BGR’s Dan Farmer … Meta’s Shannon Mattingly Nathanson

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