Playbook: How the debt limit is playing in the primary

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

SURVEY SAYS — “Former President DONALD TRUMP is regaining favor with once skeptical Republican grassroots leaders — largely at the expense of Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS,” writes Seth Masket for POLITICO Magazine. Meanwhile: “CHRIS CHRISTIE remains the most unpopular presidential candidate among surveyed county chairs.”

X DATE UPDATE — Ahead of President JOE BIDEN’s meeting with congressional leaders this afternoon, the Bipartisan Policy Center is out with a new analysis this morning forecasting that the government will bump up against the debt limit between “early June to early August” after previously predicting the so-called “X date” might not hit until early fall. The new range tracks with Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN’s recent warning to Congress. More from Caitlin Emma

There’s a lot of wonky detail in the full report. But the big variable determining whether the debt limit is reached within weeks (early June) or months (early August), will be the May tax receipts. If they come in strong, then Treasury could make it to the June 15 quarterly estimated tax deadline, around which there will be a spike in revenue. At that point there’s a good shot at making it to June 30, a “crucial date … when approximately $145 billion in one time, additional extraordinary measures become available.” And if that works out, the government will be able to make it “through at least part of July.”

But that’s a lot of ifs.

If there’s no deal before June — 23 days from now — “policymakers may be playing daily Russian Roulette with the full faith and credit of the United States, risking financial disaster for their constituents and the country,” said SHAI AKABAS, BPC’s director of economic policy.

THE VIEW FROM 2024 — We don’t expect debt-limit breakthroughs at the White House meeting today, or even this week. We’re still in the stage of each side sticking to unrealistic negotiating positions to increase leverage ahead of the real wheeling and dealing once the actual X date becomes more certain.

Meanwhile, however, the debt-limit debate has spilled into the GOP primaries as an early barometer of how the Republican presidential candidates are attempting to distinguish themselves from one another — and it’s not going how you might expect, with candidates jockeying to outflank each other on fiscal rectitude.

Let’s run through how the 2024 candidates are approaching the Washington standoff:

— TRUMP: The entire conversation in the GOP primary, to the extent it exists, has been driven by Trump — and it has been almost entirely centered on entitlements. In a January video, first reported on by Meridith McGraw, Trump warned, “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security.”

House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY soon adopted the Trump policy.

But it turns out that Trump’s position, which bucks Republican orthodoxy about how to handle entitlements and happens to be overwhelmingly popular with voters, wasn’t really about separating Trump from GOP entitlement reformers in Congress. It was about laying the groundwork for attacks on Ron DeSantis.

“People are beginning to find out that Ron wanted to destroy Social Security and raise its minimum age to at least 70,” Trump said in another video. “He fought very hard to do it. He also had strong plans for cutting Medicare and still does.”

There’s a lot of Trumpian hyperbole there but also kernels of truth: in Congress, DeSantis voted for nonbinding budget resolutions that called for privatizing both programs and raising their eligibility age to 70.

— DeSANTIS: DeSantis has not weighed in on the debt limit with any real specificity, but in a Friday interview with Newsmax, he responded to Trump’s attacks on Social Security and Medicare.

“Those are Democrat attacks. I don’t think anybody really buys that. But I also think some of the stuff where you look forward, people in my generation,” he said, not completing the thought but seemingly hinting at support for changes that would affect future retirees.

He then mounted his most detailed defense of his congressional budget votes — and tried turning the tables on Trump: “Those budgets that I think they’re pointing to — those are just standard Republican budgets,” he said. “And it’s interesting — Donald Trump himself wrote a book where he was talking about the need to increase the age of eligibility for Social Security to seventy and said people shouldn’t be worried about retiring, just keep working. That’s what his words were.”

— MIKE PENCE: In a recent interview, the former VP endorsed McCarthy’s House plan and called for Biden to negotiate. But like Trump and DeSantis he entered the debate through talk about Social Security and Medicare. And he distinguished himself by criticizing the GOP’s hands-off stance.

“While I respect the speaker’s commitment to take Social Security and Medicare off the table for the debt ceiling negotiations,” Pence said in February, “we’ve got to put them on the table in the long term.”

— NIKKI HALEY: As first reported in Playbook in early March, Haley has tried to separate herself from the rest of the field by attacking Republicans for their role in adding to the national debt. She has kept it up as a standard attack line on the stump.

“I don’t know that our kids are ever going to forgive us for this,” she said in New Hampshire in late March, as National Review reported. “It’s easy to blame Biden for that, but our Republicans did that to us too, and we need to acknowledge that.”

Haley is also embracing entitlement reform, floating a later retirement age for “kids in their 20s,” means-testing benefits for the wealthy and restructuring Medicare, per NR: “‘I balanced a budget in South Carolina. You balance a budget at home. Our businesses, we balance budgets. Why is Congress the only group that’s exempt from doing that?”

— TIM SCOTT: As the only senator actively exploring a campaign, Scott (R-S.C.) will actually have to vote on whatever deal Congress moves. So, unlike his primary opponents, he’s taken a fairly specific position, one outlined in the letter that 43 Republican senators signed endorsing McCarthy’s strategy: “[W]e will not be voting for cloture on any bill that raises the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms.”

— ASA HUTCHINSON: When asked by CBS News’ Major Garrett recently if he supported the House plan, the ex-Arkansas governor went vague: “The important thing is to have a framework as to how we’re going to control federal spending in the future. And the president of the United States needs to agree to that framework.”

The bottom line … While Biden and fellow Democrats have itched for a straightforward fight about Social Security and Medicare, Trump and McCarthy have largely taken that cudgel away from the White House as Trump himself uses it to hammer his GOP opponents. The entitlement debate has so far distracted attention from politically vulnerable aspects of the House-passed package, and it’s allowed 2024 candidates to sidestep questions about whether they support every detail of that bill. But as the standoff comes to head, it may be more difficult to maintain that level of fuzziness.

The table-setters … “The first test of the Biden-Jeffries relationship comes with the global economy in the balance,” by Jennifer Haberkorn … “Biden, GOP Lawmakers Not Budging as Debt-Ceiling Meeting Convenes,” by WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia and Natalie Andrews … “Deal or default? Biden, GOP must decide what’s on the table,” by AP’s Zeke Miller, Seung Min Kim and Josh Boak

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

PRIZE PATROL — A hearty congratulations to our colleagues Josh Gerstein, Alexander Ward, Peter Canellos, Hailey Fuchs and Heidi Przybyla for being named Pulitzer Prize finalists in Breaking News Reporting for POLITICO’s historic disclosure of a draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would strike down Roe v. Wade and the subsequent reporting on the high court and the decision’s impact.

“As with all great breaking stories, the report was a bombshell in the moment, upending the midterm campaign and galvanizing opponents and supporters of abortion rights not just in the U.S. but worldwide,” Editor-in-Chief Matt Kaminski wrote yesterday in a note to staff. “But we had impact because POLITICO reporters didn’t stop there.” Read the original report on the draft decision … See the full list of winners and finalists

Heartwarming read: “Father-Son Duo in Alabama Wins Pulitzer, Bucking Headwinds in Local News,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin

PHOTO OF THE DAY

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

RASKIN WATCH — Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) told our colleague Jordain Carney last night that he will decide by June whether to jump into the Senate race to succeed fellow Maryland Democrat BEN CARDIN. Raskin, who would instantly become a serious contender in the race, described his position right now as an “absolute toss-up” as he fields input and weighs the broader role he wants to play beyond 2024. He acknowledged a “complex calculus” between staying in the House, where he is well positioned to become Oversight chair, or joining the Senate, where he could be joining as a freshman member of the minority party.

ON THE RISE — “Vivek Ramaswamy and his ‘Vek Heads’ catch a spark,” by Natalie Allison and Lisa Kashinsky in Windham, N.H.: “It’s the most always-on, always-available strategy of the 2024 presidential race. And it appears to be working.”

ON THE ISSUES — “Anti-abortion group aligns with Trump, weeks after criticism,” by AP’s Meg Kinnard: “Calling her meeting Monday with Trump ‘terrific,’ MARJORIE DANNENFELSER, president of the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America group, said in a statement that he ‘reiterated that any federal legislation protecting these children would need to include the exceptions for life of the mother and in cases of rape and incest.’”

MORE POLITICS

WHAT THE GOP WANTS — Following the Trump years, the conservative push to restrict voting laws across the country is continuing apace among Republican-led legislatures. “Behind the efforts is a network of billionaire-backed advocacy groups that has formed a new hub of election advocacy within the Republican Party, rallying state activists, drafting model legislation and setting priorities,” NYT’s Nick Corasaniti and Alexandra Berzon write. “The groups have largely dropped the push for expansive laws, shifting instead to a strategy one leader describes as ‘radical incrementalism’ — a step-by-step approach intended to be more politically palatable than the broad legislation that provoked widespread protest in 2021.”

SHOOTING THEIR SHOT — Some Democrats are looking deep down the bench for someone to box out Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) in 2024. NBC’s Matt Dixon and Jonathan Allen report that donors are discussing whether former NBA stars DWYANE WADE and GRANT HILL could be coaxed into challenging. “There have been separate active efforts to get both to consider forays into state politics, which have not been driven by either the state or national parties,” they note.

ALL FALLS DOWN — “Kanye West treasurer resigns, alleges possible ‘unlawful’ campaign transaction,” by Jessica Piper

THE WHITE HOUSE

BIDEN STRIKES BACK — Biden weighed in for the first time publicly on the Hollywood writers strike at the White House yesterday as he hosted a screening for the upcoming streaming series “American Born Chinese” in honor of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month. What Biden said: “I sincerely hope the writers strike in Hollywood gets resolved and the writers are given a fair deal they deserve as soon as possible. … We need the writers and all the workers and everyone involved to tell the stories of our nation and the stories of all of us.” More from the AP

ANALYZE THIS — The NYT is up with two sharp analyses of Biden on two of the recent challenges that have cropped up for the White House …

CONGRESS

McCARTHY’S MAJORITY — Our colleagues Olivia Beavers and Sarah Ferris tick through the list of demands that McCarthy ceded in order to secure his speakership and how he is faring in delivering on those key concessions among his conference. “I’m pretty happy with him,” said Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.), one of the 20 initial detractors, adding he’d give McCarthy’s tenure as speaker an “A.” But Norman and others on the right flank have made clear their praise is conditional, pending the debt fight.

COUNTING CROW’S — The Senate Judiciary Committee is stepping up its scrutiny of GOP megadonor HARLAN CROW’s ties to Supreme Court Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, sending a letter to Crow asking for specific details about his gifts to any justices on the bench, WaPo’s Liz Goodwin and Marianne LeVine report. The details: “Judiciary Committee Chair RICHARD J. DURBIN (D-Ill.) and the committee’s 10 other Democrats signed on to the letter asking Crow to provide an itemized list of gifts worth more than $415 that he’s made to Thomas, any other justice or any justice’s family member, as well as a full list of lodging, transportation, real estate transactions and admission to any private clubs Crow may have provided.”

REPUBLICAN RIFT — “House and Senate diverge on immigration as border fears mount,” by Jordain Carney and Daniella Diaz

TRUMP CARDS

AT THE RAPE TRIAL — “The Trump rape trial is headed to the jury. Here are the questions jurors will weigh,” by Erica Orden

AT THE HUSH MONEY TRIAL — “Judge limits Trump’s sharing of information from New York criminal case on social media,” by CNN’s Jeremy Herb and Kara Scannell

POLICY CORNER

WHERE WE GO FROM HERE — “What goes away when the Covid health emergency ends this week,” by Daniel Payne, David Lim and Ben Leonard

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — “NIH restarts bat virus grant suspended 3 years ago by Trump,” by Science Magazine’s Jocelyn Kaiser: “The new 4-year grant is a stripped-down version of the original grant to the EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit research organization in New York City, providing $576,000 per year.”

BORDER TALES — “Cold, hungry and determined: Families climb freight trains to reach U.S. border,” by CNN’s David Culver, Karol Suarez and Rachel Clarke

WATCHING THE WATCHERS — “Brain Drain Threatens the F.D.I.C. and Its Efforts to Regulate Banks,” by NYT’s Alan Rappeport

THE ECONOMY

HEADS UP — “Recession risks rise for Biden and Democrats,” by Ben White: “The latest survey of lending standards by banks, released by the Federal Reserve on Monday and intently watched by Wall Street for recession signals, reflected ‘tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans to large and middle-market firms as well as small firms over the first quarter.’”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

TEXAS SHOOTING LATEST — “Texas gunman fantasized over race wars on social media before mass killing,” by WaPo’s Jack Douglas, Tim Craig, Alex Horton, Hannah Allam and Brittany Shammas

ABORTION FALLOUT — “Abortion clinics in 3 states sue to protect pill access,” by AP’s Matthew Perrone and Denise Lavoie: “The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Virginia on behalf of clinics in Virginia, Montana and Kansas, is the latest legal action over [mifepristone].”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Rise of mpox cases in Chicago raises concern about possible summer spread,” by NBC’s Benjamin Ryan

MEDIAWATCH

CASHING IN — “New York Times to Get Around $100 Million From Google Over Three Years,” by WSJ’s Alexandra Bruell: “The publisher announced its deal with Google earlier this year, which it described as an expanded agreement that included content distribution and subscriptions, as well as using Google tools for marketing and ad-product experimentation.”

WHICH WAY THE WIND BLOWS — “Both parties trust the Weather Channel ... and that’s about it,” by WaPo’s Philip Bump

PLAYBOOKERS

Ke Huy Quan had fun introducing Joe Biden at the White House.

Carly Fiorina will lead Virginia’s planning efforts for the 250th birthday of the U.S.

JJ Green will receive an honorary degree from Champlain College.

Michael Bennet embraced his inner child.

PGA Tour pros Zach Johnson and Davis Love III will be on the Hill today to meet with members of Congress for National Golf Day.

IN MEMORIAM — “Michael Berman, Democratic strategist and force in California politics, dies,” by the L.A. Times’ Melody Gutierrez: “Berman burst onto the political scene before he was old enough to vote, running Henry Waxman’s first campaign for the state Legislature in 1968 … But it wasn’t his age or the long-shot win that earned Berman notice, it was his new approach: devising a plan with UCLA sociologist Howard Elinson to harness demographic data to target where campaign mailers should be sent for maximum impact. Those micro-targeted mailers forever changed how races are won in California and remain standard political operating procedure.”

BOOK CLUB — Marty Baron is writing a new book about his tenure at WaPo titled, “Collision of Power: Trump, Bezos, and The Washington Post” ($34.99).

MEDIA MOVES — Patrick Caldwell is joining POLITICO Magazine as a senior editor. He previously was deputy editor on the print side of The New Republic and is a Mother Jones alum. … Puck co-founder and CEO Joe Purzycki is leaving the organization, Axios’ Sara Fischer reports. … Rosalind Helderman is now deputy national investigations editor at WaPo, where she previously was an investigative reporter. The announcement

OUT AND ABOUT — Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito attended the annual conference of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Antonio yesterday, where he participated in a Q&A led by Trump-appointed 5th Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham.

— SPOTTED at a ceremony last night at the unveiling of the RNC’s new Reince Priebus Media Center: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), Ronna McDaniel, Reince Priebus, Sally and Grace Priebus, Drew McCissick, Ed Gillespie, Jim Nicholson, Sean Spicer, Tory Sendek, Alex Angelson, Rebecca Heilig Lira, Cara Mason, Rick Wiley, Mallory Hunter, Mike Ambrosini, Rick Hohlt, Wells Griffith and Jeff Larson. Pic … Another pic

— Meridian International hosted an intimate reception welcoming new French Ambassador Laurent Bili to Washington last night at the Meridian House. SPOTTED: Sabine Raczy-Bili, Rufus Gifford, Jane Cafritz, Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) and Chrissy Hagerty, Sarah Perot, Tim Hwang, Amédée Prouvost, Ray Washburne, Kim Sajet, Alex Marquardt, Winton and Hap Holladay, David Barrosse, Michael Allen, Aba Kwawu, Maria Elena Carrion, Natalie Jones, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Lee Satterfield and Patrick Steel and Bart and Leslie Gordon.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Tim Persico and Vriti Jain are joining GPS Impact. Persico previously was executive director of the DCCC, and Jain previously was a deputy executive director of the DCCC.

STATE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Jirair Ratevosian is leaving his role as senior adviser at the State Department to run for Congress in his hometown in California. He is also a Barbara Lee and Biden-Harris transition alum.

TRANSITIONS — Amy Spitalnick will be CEO of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs. She most recently was executive director of Integrity First for America. … Catherine Hein is now counsel in Latham & Watkins’ Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States & U.S. national security practice. She previously was acting principal deputy assistant general counsel of enforcement and intelligence at the Treasury Department. … Mike Harney is now SVP of public affairs for CLEAR. He previously was chief of staff at the Commerce Department. …

… Maddy McDaniel is now senior comms adviser to the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. She was previously comms director for Mandela Barnes’ Wisconsin Senate campaign. … Arielle Baran is now director of strategic comms at the ACLU. She previously was a senior campaign director at the Hub Project. … Mike McLaughlin is now a VP at Do Big Things. He previously was VP at Pocket Aces Consulting and is an Amy Klobuchar alum.

WEDDING — Franci Rooney, counsel for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) on the Judiciary Committee, and Corey Becker, chief counsel for crime and national security for Senate Judiciary ranking member Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), got married Saturday at Dahlgren Chapel of the Sacred Heart, followed by a reception at the Decatur House. They met while working on the Judiciary Committee, negotiating a bill. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: N.Y. Mag’s Justin Miller … John McEntee … The Atlantic’s Mark Leibovich … NYT’s Ezra Klein … Joel Kaplan … Parker Poling …Fox News’ Dana Perino, Garrett Tenney and Jordan Powell … White House’s Dhara Nayyar … NBC’s Peter Nicholas … Third Way’s Jon Cowan … Taylor Andreae … POLITICO’s Victoria Guida, Chris ReShore and Madi Alexander … Fabion Seaton … Nihal Krishan of FedScoop … Ashley Schapitl … David Perera … Stu Sandler …Chris Ullman of Ullman Communications … Lauren Decot … Jason Linde of Food Allergy Research & Education … David Gergen … former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt … John Ashcroft … Kent Knutson … former Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.)

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter misspelled Shai Akabas’ and Dwyane Wade’s names.