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Favorites

Declared
Portrait of Donald Trump
Maybe
Portrait of Ron DeSantis

Contenders

Portrait of Nikki Haley
Portrait of Mike Pence

Long shots

Portrait of Vivek Ramaswamy
Portrait of Asa Hutchinson
Portrait of Perry Johnson
Portrait of Larry Elder
Portrait of Ryan Binkley
Portrait of Tim Scott
Portrait of Chris Sununu
Portrait of Kristi Noem
Portrait of Mike Rogers

Ruled out

Portrait of Mike Pompeo
Portrait of Ted Cruz
Portrait of Larry Hogan
Portrait of Rick Scott
Portrait of Tom Cotton
2024 Presidential Election

The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose

By Steven Shepard | March 20, 2023, 4:00 a.m. EDT |

The race for the GOP presidential nomination has a set of historic firsts: a criminally indicted former president seeking an Oval Office comeback, a vice president who refused to go along with a plot to steal the last election, the most politically accomplished woman ever to run as a Republican — and an already-popular governor waiting in the wings.

Who ultimately wins out will take on President Joe Biden in a likely reelection bid — and potentially secure the White House.

There are also other candidates and would-be candidates, too. We've put the entire field into three categories — based roughly on their chances to capture the nod — along with full scouting reports for everything that could go right or wrong along the road to the 2024 convention in Milwaukee.

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The Favorites

The most likely nominee(s). The Favorites have established major campaign infrastructure — plenty of money, staff in key states, outside groups ready to bombard the airwaves with advertising — built broad coalitions in polling and garnered endorsements from party leaders.

Portrait of Donald Trump
Declared
Donald Trump
The former president — who has refused to accept his 2020 defeat — is seeking to become only the second man in history to return to the Oval Office after his ouster.
🏆 Winning path

Trump remains popular among the Republican base despite numerous scandals and the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol that punctuated his turbulent presidency. His false claim that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election has given his comeback bid a patina of grievance to add to his appeal to return to the policies of his administration. With only a few exceptions, Trump's likely rivals have refrained from criticizing his time in office or behavior outside of it.

❌ Losing path

Trump fatigue. Trump has dominated American politics — in both parties — since he first became a candidate in 2015. Unlike his first campaign, when the field against him was split, Trump could face a single competitor who serves as a counterweight in DeSantis. And legal jeopardy on multiple fronts — including criminal charges in New York — could convince enough GOP primary voters to turn the page and look to the future, even if they like Trump and his record as president.

Portrait of Ron DeSantis
Maybe
Ron DeSantis
Since elected as Florida’s governor in 2018, DeSantis has positioned himself as a national figure by championing far-right causes — and successfully turned the nation’s largest swing state a distinct shade of red. He is widely expected to begin his campaign after the state legislative session ends this spring.
🏆 Winning path

DeSantis doesn’t want to be the anti-Trump, but rather a more effective (and less scandalous) continuation of the former president’s political movement. By the numbers, it could be a winning primary coalition to combine Trump fans with loyal Republicans who are skeptical about a third straight Trump nomination. But it requires DeSantis to go at Trump directly — without alienating too many of his supporters — and position himself as a more electable alternative.

❌ Losing path

By selling Trump Lite to an audience that still yearns for the full-calorie version, and at the same time too extreme and unserious for the party’s Trump skeptics. He's considered an awkward retail campaigner. DeSantis’ decision to align with Trump on the Russian invasion of Ukraine suggests he’s unlikely to make any significant breaks from the former president.

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The Contenders

In the ballgame, but not top-tier candidates. The Contenders are running credible campaigns, with enough money and staff to be competitive, but haven’t gained as much traction. Still, a Contender has enough support in a key early state or among a segment of the GOP electorate to build upon as the primaries approach — or potentially play king- (or queen-) maker down the road.

Portrait of Nikki Haley
Declared
Nikki Haley
Haley combines executive experience, foreign policy chops, a tie to Trump’s administration, home-field-advantage in an early state and a historic candidacy.
🏆 Winning path

As the alternative to a months-long Trump-DeSantis food fight. A win in South Carolina’s primary — third after Iowa and New Hampshire — would go a long way to vaulting Haley into the top tier. Already, Haley is the most politically accomplished woman — as a twice-elected governor and cabinet member — to enter a Republican presidential primary field. Despite the gender gap between the parties, women make up nearly half of the GOP primary electorate.

❌ Losing path

Like all of the candidates below the top tier, Haley risks getting drowned out in a primary where Trump and DeSantis suck up most of the oxygen. And Haley’s seemingly shifting views of Trump after the Jan. 6 riot threaten her credibility in taking on her former boss.

Portrait of Mike Pence
Maybe
Mike Pence
Pence spurned Trump when he honored the results of the 2020 election, and the former vice president appears poised to be Trump’s loudest critic in the 2024 presidential field.
🏆 Winning path

He probably doesn’t. But if he can survive the early caucuses and primaries as the candidate of choice of the GOP’s small but real “never-Trump” bloc, he could be a powerbroker in the heart of primary season to steer his voters toward an alternative.

❌ Losing path

The danger for Pence is being a non-factor in the race. Other candidates will hit Trump, too, though perhaps not with the solemnity of the former vice president. And those in that group — DeSantis, Haley, among others — won’t have Pence’s low ceiling.

Portrait of Ted Cruz
Ruled out
Ted Cruz
The 2016 runner-up is foregoing another campaign, instead choosing to seek a third term in the Senate.

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The Long shots

Not a factor — at least not yet. The Long Shots barely register in polling, nationally and in the early states. There’s always the possibility of catching fire, especially in one of the early states, to propel you into the next tier. But there’s an even greater likelihood of an ignominious, early dropout.

Portrait of Ryan Binkley
Declared
Ryan Binkley
A Dallas-area businessman and non-denominational pastor, Binkley is concentrating his early efforts in Iowa, where he went up with TV ads in early May 2023.
🏆 Winning path

Binkley's opening ad hit inspirational notes, promising to renew a country that is "strong, unified and reconciled to God and each other."

❌ Losing path

A first-time candidate with little national profile, Binkley is betting big on an Iowa-first strategy that could easily flame out.

Portrait of Larry Elder
Declared
Larry Elder
The former conservative media personality, who first took the plunge when he campaigned to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a failed 2021 recall effort, is going national.
🏆 Winning path

Elder worked for decades as a talk-radio host, and he could be a strong communicator, including on a debate stage. Despite African Americans making up a very small slice of the Republican primary electorate, each of the past two contested primaries have seen Black candidates surge to the top tier (Herman Cain and Ben Carson, respectively), though subsequently decline before the voting began.

❌ Losing path

A lot of ink was spilled about Elder’s effort to topple Newsom mid-term, but the 2021 recall failed spectacularly, 62 percent to 38 percent. Elder was also accused by his ex-fiancee of abuse during their relationship last decade.

Portrait of Asa Hutchinson
Declared
Asa Hutchinson
After a lengthy career in public office — as a U.S. attorney, congressman (and Bill Clinton impeachment manager), DEA administrator and two-term Arkansas governor — Hutchinson says he’s mounting an underdog presidential bid.
🏆 Winning path

Hutchinson has expressed misgivings about the GOP’s direction during the Trump era, but selling a return to the conservativism of the 1990s and 2000s is an uphill climb. He says Trump should drop out of the race following his indictment in New York — far from a majority opinion in the party.

❌ Losing path

He could end up like two of Trump’s 2016 rivals — former New York Gov. George Pataki or another former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee — who barely register after their political moments have already passed them by.

Portrait of Perry Johnson
Declared
Perry Johnson
Johnson failed to qualify for the ballot in his last campaign — for Michigan governor in 2022 — but the businessman and self-described “quality guru” has already been running cable-TV ads in Iowa.
🏆 Winning path

Actually getting on the ballot would be a good start. Johnson was disqualified in 2022 due to signature fraud — he blamed a vendor — rendering the more than $7 million he loaned his campaign wasted. His early-state advertising could get him on a debate stage, however, if he starts to register in polls.

❌ Losing path

Like other self-funding long shots, there's a limit to how much of their own money someone would spend if they aren't going anywhere.

Portrait of Vivek Ramaswamy
Declared
Vivek Ramaswamy
The investor and former pharmaceutical company CEO has launched an outsider campaign based largely on a critique of “wokeness” among corporations and other institutions.
🏆 Winning path

If his pet issue is vaulted to the fore, especially in primary debates, where it will compete with a more traditional GOP issue set of the economy, crime, foreign policy and immigration. But he also won’t be the only loud voice against “wokeness” if DeSantis is in the race. He’s wealthy and can afford to jump-start his campaign out of his own checkbook.

❌ Losing path

Self-funding candidates often tire of spending millions of dollars if they aren’t catching on among the electorate.

Portrait of Kristi Noem
Maybe
Kristi Noem
Since her election as South Dakota governor in 2018, Noem has yearned to be a national figure. A Fox News mainstay, her state’s tourism board spent nearly $1 million in 2020 on the channel during that year’s Republican convention for ads that featured Noem touting South Dakota direct-to-camera.
🏆 Winning path

If there’s room in the Trump/MAGA lane for a third (and female) candidate. Also, unlike Haley, Noem has stayed in Trump’s good graces and is often mentioned as a possible replacement for Pence on the general-election ticket if Trump wins.

❌ Losing path

DeSantis was first elected the same year and has executed his version of conservative governance on a much larger scale. South Dakota is no Florida.

Portrait of Mike Rogers
Maybe
Mike Rogers
Rogers gave up the gavel of the House Intelligence Committee in 2014 to become a talk-radio personality. Now he says he’s considering a political comeback.
🏆 Winning path

The Michigan Republican is a frequent cable-news guest, so he has a slightly higher profile than anyone else who hasn’t been on a ballot in more than a decade. In addition to being a former intel chair in Congress, he was an FBI agent before running for office — an interesting profile in today’s GOP.

❌ Losing path

As a TV pundit and all-around Republican wise man, Rogers has occasionally been critical of Trump, even though he served on Trump’s 2016 transition time and was briefly mentioned as a possible James Comey replacement as FBI director in 2017.

Portrait of Tim Scott
Maybe
Tim Scott
The South Carolina senator hasn’t jumped into the race yet, but he’s a favorite of the party’s donor class and hails from an early-primary state.
🏆 Winning path

By selling primary voters on a sunnier vision for the country than Trump’s “retribution” tour or DeSantis’ war on liberalism. Scott won’t have to worry about money — he’s one of the Senate GOP’s strongest fundraisers and has connections to well-heeled conservatives like Oracle’s Larry Ellison and the Koch network. And showing strength in South Carolina could vault him into contention elsewhere.

❌ Losing path

If Republican voters are more attracted to the bellicose rhetoric from the current frontrunners. And if both Scott and Haley are still on the ballot in South Carolina, it could dilute their favorite-son and -daughter candidacies.

Portrait of Chris Sununu
Maybe
Chris Sununu
The popular governor of the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire has made the rounds in the national media, dismissing Trump as the GOP’s leader.
🏆 Winning path

By becoming the main figure of the party’s moderate lane, amid a pileup on his right. He's won four gubneratorial elections, including two on the ballot the same time Trump lost the battleground state. And a victory in the New Hampshire primary would be a prerequisite, too.

❌ Losing path

If he’s too moderate (and anti-Trump) for today’s GOP primary voters. And if his “favorite son” status in New Hampshire diminishes the state’s weight — as then-Sen. Tom Harkin’s candidacy did in 1992, when the Iowan won his home state but struggled in major contests elsewhere.

Portrait of Greg Abbott
Unlikely
Greg Abbott
Abbott was just elected to a third term as Texas governor and has been one of Republicans’ top fundraisers anywhere in the country.
Portrait of Chris Christie
Unlikely
Chris Christie
The former New Jersey governor and one-time Trump confidant has said he’s considering running again.
Portrait of Marco Rubio
Unlikely
Marco Rubio
Since being hailed as the potential future of the GOP eight years ago, Rubio has been eclipsed by a fellow Floridian in DeSantis.
Portrait of Glenn Youngkin
Unlikely
Glenn Youngkin
The term-limited Virginia governor is sometimes floated as an electable conservative candidate.
Portrait of Tom Cotton
Ruled out
Tom Cotton
The Arkansas senator said in November 2022 he wouldn’t run for president.
Portrait of Larry Hogan
Ruled out
Larry Hogan
The former Maryland governor — one of Trump’s top GOP critics — chose not to enter the race.
Portrait of Mike Pompeo
Ruled out
Mike Pompeo
After a monthslong flirtation, Trump’s former CIA director and secretary of state announced in April that "the time is not right" for him to launch a presidential campaign in 2024.
Portrait of Rick Scott
Ruled out
Rick Scott
After an eventful four years in the Senate — including a fruitless cycle as NRSC chairman and an unsuccessful effort to topple Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — Scott chose a bid for a second term over a presidential campaign.

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