Inside the multi-car pileup to replace Cicilline

TOP LINE

It’s rare to have an open congressional seat in Rhode Island. So when there is one, ambitious pols pounce on what could literally be a once-in-a-generation shot to go to Washington.

More than a dozen Democrats have declared their candidacy for Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District — a crowded field that has formed before outgoing Democratic Rep. David Cicilline, who has represented the district for over a decade, even officially resigns. He’s set to leave Congress in just a few weeks to become CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation, a philanthropic organization in the state.

It’s a reliably blue district, all but guaranteeing the victor of the Democratic primary will prevail in the general election.

Those Democrats lining up include Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, who was first appointed to the role in 2021 but won reelection last year, and Gabe Amo, who recently left his White House post to pursue a bid. There’s also a host of local elected officials, like state Reps. Marvin Abney, Nathan Biah and Stephen Casey; state Sens. Sandra Cano and Ana Quezada; and John Goncalves, a member of the Providence City Council. Nick Autiello, a former staffer to then-Gov. Gina Raimondo; former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg; Stephanie Beauté, who unsuccessfully ran for secretary of state last year; and renewable energy investor Don Carlson are also among those in the fray.

“None of them — not even the lieutenant governor — none of them are a household name,” said Joe Fleming, a political analyst and pollster in the state.

No Republicans have declared.

Some big names declined to run — like Helena Foulkes, who lost in the Democratic primary for governor last year, and state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi — and there is no clear cut frontrunner in the field, operatives say.

It’s not guaranteed that all of these hopefuls will stay in the race, and more can jump in. There’s still plenty of time: Nomination papers are due in mid-July, the primary is on Sept. 5 and the general election is Nov. 7.

Because there are so many candidates — and because it’s a special election, which some in the state estimate could draw as little as 30,000 voters — the winner probably won’t be pulling in that many votes, possibly as low as 4,000. Not helping the fact is that the stakes are fairly low: The seat is reliably Democratic, and no balance of power in the chamber is at play here.

“There’s no argument that one Democrat is protecting the seat more than another,” said Katie Nee Zambrano, who managed Democratic Rep. Seth Magaziner’s campaign last year in RI-02. “So what’s going to motivate donors here is really the personal relationships. … It’s just so much easier for Rhode Island donors to say, ‘I like you all, I’m not going to start picking and choosing.’”

Fleming said he expects some paid media — but money is required to run ads. And when there’s so many people jockeying for the same spot, that may be hard to come by. Some candidates have already pulled in more than $100,000 and some, like Carlson, could self-fund their bid. Even still, operatives predict that it’s going to be more about building grassroots support and getting local officials to rally behind a candidate to help voter turnout rather than a big media buy election.

Nee Zambrano said she’ll be keeping an eye on local groups, like abortion rights, environmental and progressive-leaning ones, to see if they back any candidate, many of whom have similar stances on such issues. Even if the groups don’t invest a lot of money, such endorsements could tip the scale in such a low-turnout race, she said. And given that so many candidates serve in the state legislature, labor groups may stay out of the mix until the session is over in June.

Matos claimed the first significant national endorsement of the election from BOLD PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm, as well as backing from scores of local officials.

Another factor that could come into play: the diversity of the field. Many of the candidates are people of color, and there are a number of women running for the post. Rhode Island has never elected a Democratic woman to Congress, and the current congressional delegation is all white men.

“Right now it’s just very quiet, and every day somebody else gets in,” said Kate Coyne-McCoy, a Democratic consultant in the state. “We have yet to see anybody make a first strike. It hasn’t really gotten on yet. But it needs to, because it’s a short window.”

Happy Monday, and welcome to May. Reach me at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Kentucky primary: 15

Days until the Mississippi primary: 99

Days until the Louisiana primary: 166

Days until the 2023 election: 190

Days until the 2024 election: 554

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Presidential Big Board

REACHING VOTERS — Hispanic voters have soured on President Joe Biden, and now he needs to win them back, POLITICO’s Marissa Martinez reports. “As he launches his reelection, there are doubts about whether he’ll be able to replicate that multiracial excitement, even if he might face off against [former President Donald Trump] again. His favorability has dropped across the board since last year, falling nearly 30 points among Latinos in some polling. … Several sources said [Julie Chávez Rodríguez’s] appointment in particular showcased how serious the president is about reaching Latino audiences, boosted by the presence of Texas Rep. Veronica Escobar of El Paso as a national co-chair.”

… “As Biden Runs Again, Black Voters’ Frustration Bubbles,” by The New York Times’ Maya King and Reid J. Epstein.

‘I CALL IT BEING SEASONED’ — Voters in older age groups approve of Biden’s job performance in greater numbers than those in younger clusters, POLITICO’s Steve Shepard writes in his latest polling installment. (Biden’s taking the chatter about his age as he mounts a reelection bid in stride, too: At the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday night, he made some quips about being 80 years old.)

FIRST LADY LOOK — “Close advisers say [first lady Jill Biden] feels a comfort level with her role inside the White House, balancing the ceremonial responsibilities of the office with the weight of serving as a trusted adviser to the president,” our Eugene Daniels writes. “And at a time when suburban women are drifting toward Democrats and the nation’s schools have become political battlefields, the White House sees utility in having a prominent educator standing beside her husband. The issue of ‘book banning’ featured prominently in Biden’s reelection launch video.”

DONOR DANCE — Biden had the first in-person donor confab of his 2024 reelection campaign on Friday night. “The reception, while not a fundraiser, was the first of a two-day meeting that offered Democratic Party officials the opportunity to sell donors on Biden’s reelection campaign strategy and begin an ambitious fundraising push aimed at topping the $1 billion the campaign raised last election cycle,” POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs writes.

PRIMARY COLORS — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been “receiving praise from right-wing influencers who may be trying to draft the scion of the famous political family into a similar role as the one Rep. Tulsi Gabbard played in the 2020 Democratic primary, when she made common cause with the right by claiming the primary was rigged against her,” NBC News’ Alex Seitz-Wald writes. “While Biden is overwhelmingly favored to reclaim the Democratic nomination, early polls show a sizable portion of the party’s base interested in Kennedy — though most mainstream Democratic operatives dismiss that as a product of his recognizable last name.”

FOR YOUR CALENDAR — Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will announce if he’s running for president on May 22, per the AP’s Meg Kinnard.

SHIFTING GEARS — Never Back Down, the super PAC backing a potential presidential bid for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has been hitting Trump. But its sights are set on a new target: former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. The group is “running an ad online attacking Haley, has polled Twitter users on a new nickname for her, and accused her in a tweet of ‘trying really hard to audition’ to be Trump’s vice presidential pick,” POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt and Natalie Allison write. “The move suggested a shifting dynamic in the contest: With DeSantis falling further behind Trump in national and early-state surveys, his allied super PAC is trying to ensure that the primary remains a two-way race and that other candidates vying to be the Trump alternative do not gain traction.”

RESIGN TO RUN — The Florida legislature on Friday passed a law that would, in part, not require DeSantis to resign from his position to run for governor. The bill now heads to DeSantis’ desk. Read more from POLITICO’s Gary Fineout.

JUST SUPER — A super PAC boosting a presidential bid for former Vice President Mike Pence is set to launch later this month, our Adam Wren writes. Pence’s campaign is having conversations about the PAC with Mike Biundo, the New Hampshire-based veteran of nine presidential campaigns who was national senior adviser to Trump in 2016. (Biundo is also in talks with other campaigns.)

Pence’s campaign is also ramping up talks with consultants and activists in early nominating states, including Chip Saltsman, the architect of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s 2008 Iowa victory, who has been advising Pence on his early state strategy.

TRAIL MIX — Trump is set to be in Iowa on May 13 “to headline an organizing rally at a sprawling park in downtown Des Moines,” the AP’s Thomas Beaumont writes. Yes, that is the same day that DeSantis will be in the state, attending Rep. Randy Feenstra’s annual summer fundraiser and speaking at a party fundraiser.

… In New Hampshire news: Republican Perry Johnson is speaking at St. Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics on Monday, his first time campaigning in the state. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is continuing his New Hampshire bus tour from Tuesday through Thursday.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

2024 WATCH — John Tuttle, the vice chair of the New York Stock Exchange, is considering a run for Senate in Michigan. Tuttle, who would have the funds to support a campaign and a major network of potential donors to tap, has spoken with Republicans in D.C. and Michigan about a possible run and the NRSC has shown interest in his candidacy. Read more from POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick.

… Sources tell POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin that Democratic Texas state Sen. Roland Gutierrez is convening an organizational meeting as early as Monday morning as he gears up for a potential bid against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Former Rep. Filemon Vela has flown to Austin to lead the effort, and is expected to serve as chair of the campaign.

… Democrat Mckayla Wilkes filed to run for MD-05. She unsuccessfully sought to defeat Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer in both the 2020 and 2022 elections.

NEW YORK STATE OF MIND — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is not planning to run for Senate in 2024, POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Brittany Gibson report. She was one of the strongest potential primary challengers against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones and Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Ritchie Torres also are not running.

… The New York Democratic Party is rolling out “new investments in staffing, digital media and targeted outreach to AAPI, Black, Hispanic, Jewish and younger voters” ahead of 2024, POLITICO’s Anna Gronewold reports. “New York Democrats are attempting to rebuild even as they remain plagued by state party infighting, and calls for [New York Democratic Party Chair Jay] Jacobs’ resignation from the liberal wing of the party that were rebuffed by party leaders.”

TAKING CONTROL — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell “sees a path back to the Senate majority through the red states of West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, races that the party can win even with Trump at the top of the ticket,” POLITICO’s Burgess Everett writes. The most recent evidence of that was when Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice jumped into the Senate race last week. Back in October, McConnell flew to West Virginia to woo him into challenging Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. “The upside to McConnell’s visit was simple: Courting Justice early would limit the risk if the former president backs another Manchin challenger and wins the party’s presidential nomination.”

LEGAL CORNER — The North Carolina Supreme Court, which switched to a GOP majority after last year’s midterms, overturned a past ruling that said partisan gerrymandering is illegal. That clears the way for Republicans to “redraw the state’s congressional lines in a way that heavily favors the GOP,” our Zach Montellaro, Josh Gerstein and Ally write. The ruling could also cause the U.S. Supreme Court to drop Moore v. Harper, the case dealing with the power of state legislatures over federal elections.

… The North Carolina Supreme Court also overturned another of its past decisions concerning voter ID law, which “will clear the way for a long-litigated photo ID law to go into effect in the state.”

IN THE STATES — Christale Spain was elected chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party. She’s a former executive director of the state party who led Black voter engagement for the DCCC in 2022, and had the backing of Democratic heavyweights in the state, including Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Spain is the first Black woman to lead the party in the state. Read more from The Post and Courier’s Alexander Thompson.

POLL POSITION

MS GOV — Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves holds a lead over Democratic challenger Brandon Presley, per a Mississippi Today/Siena College Research Institute poll. Reeves earns 49 percent of support compared to Presley’s 38 percent (783 registered voters, April 16-20, MoE +/- 4.3 percentage points).

AS SEEN ON TV

PRESIDENTIAL — Never Back Down is targeting local broadcasts in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada with a new spot that touts DeSantis’ record as governor, ABC News’ Will Steakin and Rachel Scott previewed.

WV SENATE — Club for Growth Action is slamming Justice, claiming he “got filthy rich by stiffing working people and small businesses.”

THE CASH DASH

— “In a series of private meetings in recent weeks, Gerrit Lansing, the president of WinRed, has told the leaders of the Republican National Committee, the House and Senate campaign arms and former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign that WinRed’s prices needed to go up,” The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher writes. “The plan to raise prices appears to have stalled over fierce G.O.P. objections, according to people involved in the talks. But the episode has accelerated conversations at the party’s highest levels about the decision four years ago to clear the way for WinRed to dominate the online donation-processing field, and about whether the for-profit company’s model needs to be reassessed.”

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “You’re going to have to drag my dead, cold body out of this institution.” (Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.))