Is Biden good for Canada?

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Joseph Gedeon, with Maura Forrest and Nick Taylor-Vaisey. The prime minister may be out on tour, but WFH-ers want to work from home. We begin today with the president’s travel schedule, then we’ll catch you up on the House committee studying China.

DRIVING THE DAY

A SURVEY OF BORDER WATCHERS — After weeks of NORAD sitting on high alert, U.S. President Joe Biden has just wrapped another trip abroad, this time to Poland. Including a surprise stop in Ukraine on Monday, the magic number of countries Biden has visited since taking office is now 18.

As we’re all well aware, Canada is not on the list.

Canada, otherwise known as America’s largest trading partner, is usually the first or second international visit a U.S. president makes, notwithstanding President DONALD TRUMP.

BARACK OBAMA, BILL CLINTON and GEORGE H.W. BUSH made their first foreign trips to the Neighbors Up North. Since 1906, Canada has been visited by U.S. presidents 41 times — officially, unofficially or while vacationing, according to the Office of the U.S. Historian.

Yet Canada is still waiting on Biden.

Biden minders will note the president did visit Canada (a virtual confab) and does so (technically) when flying over its airspace on the way to Europe. Perhaps he even looked out his window at Canada en route to Kyiv for his recent surprise visit.

Biden is down to visit Canada in March, the Biden administration has confirmed.

But the overdue visit has relationship watchers wondering. What does all of it mean for Biden’s legacy as it relates to Canada? The answer — at least so far — from experts on both sides of the border: Meh.

“How to rank the invisible?” Carleton University historian NORMAN HILLMER said in an email.

“Biden did (most) Canadians the signal service of ridding us of Donald Trump. Then Biden disappeared, unlike every U.S. president since JOHN KENNEDY. Canadians knew those presidents, or thought they did. They mattered to Canadians, for better or for worse. It’s a mystery why Joe Biden does not.”

STEPHEN AZZI, professor and the author of Reconcilable Differences: A History of Canada–U.S. Relations, says Biden’s most important contribution to Canadians has been to bring stability to the U.S. government after the Trump years.

“Canada is heavily influenced by American money and culture, but also by American politics,” Azzi tells Playbook via email. “When the American government is dismissive of its allies and its treaties, that has an enormous impact on Canada. When democracy is under attack in Washington, we worry — and rightly so — that it might soon be under attack in Ottawa.”

Hillmer, Azzi and other experts polled by Playbook on both sides of the border rank Biden in the middle to lower end of the pack of modern U.S. presidents when it comes to Canada. Biden may be contending with global issues and domestic divisions, but the consensus is that he is expending just enough energy to make sure the bilateral relationship is operating smoothly.

Presidents and prime ministers operate as a kind of “fire department,” explains CHRISTOPHER SANDS of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. That is, they only get involved “when an issue or dispute is burning and at risk of getting out of control.”

One “fire” could be Biden canceling the presidential permit for the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office, Sands said.

LAURA DAWSON of the Future Borders Coalition notes that Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Biden share similar values on social policy, Ukraine and the environment.

“You can’t imagine these two in a room together and not getting along,” she tells Playbook. “This has definitely not been the case with previous pairs of prime ministers and presidents.”

Still, she says, even though Obama and former prime minister STEPHEN HARPER weren’t particularly compatible, they found a way to put their stamp on cooperative efforts, like restructuring Chrysler during the auto industry crash.

Which president has been the best to Canada, you ask?

Sands says it’s a tough call. “GERALD FORD, RONALD REAGAN, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton were the most willing to spend political capital on bilateral relations.”

What do you think? Let us know here.

On the Hill


CHINA PROBE — A parliamentary committee has expanded its study of foreign election interference following a bombshell Globe and Mail report published last week.

The report, based on leaked CSIS documents, claims China used a “sophisticated strategy” to back the re-election of a Liberal minority government in 2021 and to defeat certain Conservatives deemed unfriendly to Beijing.

“If established, what this amounts to is an all-out assault on Canadian democracy by the Chinese communist regime and an effort that raises questions about the integrity of the election in 2021 in certain ridings targeted by Beijing,” Conservative MP MICHAEL COOPER told the procedure and House affairs committee on Tuesday.

— The details: The unanimous motion calls on senior officials from CSIS, CSE, the RCMP, Elections Canada and the Privy Council Office to appear before the committee to discuss the revelations. The committee also wants to hear from Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO and national security adviser JODY THOMAS, among others.

The Conservatives had also wanted to invite the PM’s chief of staff, KATIE TELFORD, but her name was struck from the final version.

— The background: The committee is already studying foreign election interference following a report last November from Global News alleging China supported 11 candidates in the 2019 federal election.

— Also worth noting: The Liberals on the committee ended up voting for the motion. But that didn’t prevent Liberal MP JENNIFER O’CONNELL from suggesting the Conservatives only care about foreign interference now because they lost the past two elections. She accused the opposition of trying to cast doubt on the election results with “Trump-type tactics” and said the motion was a “fishing expedition.” The National Post story on this leads Newswatch this morning.

Trudeau has insisted attempts at interference didn’t influence the outcome of the elections.

— The latest from BOB FIFE and STEVE CHASE — Canadian military found Chinese monitoring buoys in the Arctic.

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‘CLOSE ROXHAM ROAD’ — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is calling on the prime minister to close the Roxham Road border crossing within 30 days, adding to a similar demand from Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT.

— Noted: Poilievre’s deadline coincides with Biden’s scheduled visit to Canada.

— Notable quotable: “The problem started when there was a different president in office. If Joe Biden were not to run again, and there was another president, under Justin Trudeau’s current approach we’d continue to have this problem,” Poilievre said Tuesday on Parliament Hill. “The one thing that we have that is common to this problem across the board is Justin Trudeau.”

Asked by reporters if he’s suggesting Canada build a wall, Poilievre replied, “just close it.”

For your radar


ROAD SHOW — Trudeau has kicked off a reboot of his town hall tours of yore — aka the pre-pandemic era, when the PM would surround himself with curious Canadians who asked occasionally awkward questions. It was at an Edmonton town hall where Trudeau introduced “peoplekind” to the #cdnpoli lexicon.

— Back at it: The prime minister’s first stop took him to the heart of the 905 region: a carpenters’ union hall in Woodbridge, just outside of Toronto. He plunked himself in the middle of a crowd adorned in reflective vests and ballcaps, and took questions on skilled trades, health care and the war in Ukraine.

— What’s next: Later this afternoon, Trudeau will join a town hall of farmers.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


— Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will be in New York City to speak at the U.N. General Assembly’s emergency special session on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

10 a.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA will be in Windsor, Ont. to make an announcement about ballast water in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River regions.

10:15 a.m. The PM will be in York Region where he will participate in a discussion with personal support workers. He’ll hold a short media availability shortly after.

2 p.m. Trudeau will meet with Longueuil Mayor CATHERINE FOURNIER. Later, he will take questions from farmers and agricultural producers.

4:30 p.m. (1:30 p.m. PST) Defense Minister ANITA ANAND will visit the Seaspan Shipyards in Vancouver and will take media questions.

PAPER TRAIL

WFH PLANNING — Canada had not yet received an avalanche of Covid vaccine doses on March 26, 2021. Only 335,903 Canadians were double-dosed. That day, Privy Council clerk JANICE CHARETTE approved a risk assessment for her department’s back-to-work plan.

The briefing note reached Charette’s desk long before there was any talk of a vaccine mandate for federal public servants. At the time, Trudeau expressly opposed mandates, calling them “more extreme measures that could have real divisive impacts on community and country.” (He changed his tune the following summer.)

— Hindsight is 20/20: The Privy Council Office’s risk report acknowledged what now seems obvious: A lot of federal employees felt better off working from home.

“There is no one-size-fits-all solution,” wrote the briefers. “Many workers and organizations will thrive in a hybrid situation, where time is split between home and office.”

The PCO note committed to a “thoughtful approach” that “reflects a careful consideration for employee mental health.” But the briefers noted that secure systems would require some staff to return to the office with less flexibility.

— “Low": That’s how PCO characterized the risk employees faced according to the department’s plan to secure their health and safety. But again the briefers recognized hybrid life changed the game for workers of the world.

“Remote work has reached a tipping point,” they concluded. “That is because many organizations have come to realize that the worldwide work-from-home experiment brought about by the COVID19 crisis has been relatively successful.”

— The state of play: The highly transmissible Omicron variant and its successive waves of hospitalizations delayed return-to-office planning for most federal employees. But the reprieve ended in January 2023, when many were directed to return two or three days a week.

Almost immediately, unions were complaining of a “one-size-fits-all” approach. The Public Service Alliance of Canada has launched a tsunami of grievances.

“As we feared, we are now living with the logistical nightmares created by this hastily-implemented return-to-office policy,” said JENNIFER CARR, president of the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada. Carr claimed some of her members couldn’t find desks when they got to their offices.

— Potential chaos: In Policy Options, KATHRYN MAY describes a fractured relationship between the unions and federal employers as they bargain new collective agreements, fueled in part by gripes from pro-WFH public servants. A strike could be in the offing.

That wasn’t a risk that found its way into the PCO’s 2021 assessment, back when Covid vaccine doses were thought to prevent infection. When the shots hadn’t yet morphed into a political lightning rod. Before things got … complicated.

MEDIA ROOM

— The west is avoiding the big question about Ukraine, writes POLITICO’s editor, MATTHEW KAMINSKI.

— Top of POLITICO this hour: Bidenworld chatters that Joe may not run.

— “Not only do Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have no fiscal anchors, it turns out they also have no moral ones, either,” GARY MASON writes in the Globe.

— TYLER MEREDITH, a former assembler of Liberal budgets, joins The Boys in Short Pants pod to talk about how to build a federal budget.

— THE NEW YORK TIMES reports: ‘Effective altruism’ led Bankman-Fried to a little-known Wall St. firm.

— “With our national security anything but guaranteed, it’s baffling then that ‘defence’ remains a dirty word for many in Canada,” PETER MACKAY writes in the Post.

— In case you missed it, here’s ALEX PANETTA on a water shortage in an Arizona suburb that has cross-border implications.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MAURA FORREST: MPs look to expand probe after China leak.

In news for POLITICO Pro subscribers:
— Biden wants to build a green future. Where are the workers?
— Brussels seeks to woo Washington into setting up raw materials club.
— Future of Ukraine grain deal up in the air.
— F-16s, longer-range missiles could help Ukraine beat Russia, U.S. general privately tells lawmakers.
— A Manhattan park under the Brooklyn Bridge.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to forever candidate JOHN TURMEL.

Spotted: MURAD HEMMADI and RYAN TUMILTY with thoughts on Ottawa weather … The National Capital Commission, assuming ownership of the building at 100 Elgin St. — aka the Lord Elgin Hotel.

Movers and shakers: Chief CADMUS DELMORE of the Cowessess First Nation has been appointed chairperson of the Residential School Documents Advisory Committee.

Cabinet appointed SANDRA PUPATELLO, a former provincial minister and two-time federal Liberal candidate, to the Toronto Port Authority board of directors.

Trudeau guy ALEX WELLSTEAD, joining Novartis Canada. ... MICHELE AUSTIN, starting with the public affairs team at Bell Canada.

MEGAN LESLIE, on a tour of the House .... Ontario Green Party Leader MIKE SCHREINER, with news that he’s staying put.

Media mentions: Our POLITICO colleagues in D.C. have won a prestigious George Polk Award for their work covering the draft U.S. Supreme Court Dobbs opinion and its fallout.

In memoriam: Former journalist and Cabmin JIM FLEMING has died. Read his obituary.

JOHN E MACDONELL, who served as chief of staff to PETER MACKAY for more than seven years — in Foreign Affairs, Defense and the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, has died.

“A loyal, intelligent humble man who gave much to public service,” MacKay tweeted of his friend and former colleague. “A keen mind for law + politics + people + huge heart for people + causes.”

DAN DUGAS called MacDonell a brilliant legal mind. “He could deal with 17 problems at once, and still come up with a funny Simpsons quote to break the tension.”

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected].

TRIVIA


Tuesday’s answer: The theme of this year’s Black History Month is “Ours to Tell,” a salute to the life and legacy of LINCOLN ALEXANDER.

Props to ENRICO WLOCH and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Wednesday’s question: Name the future senator who was the subject of a 1979 NFB short documentary.

Send your answer to [email protected]

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected].

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.