POLITICO Playbook: Is the Dobbs effect fading?
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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
DRIVING THE DAY
THE WEEK — Today: Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day. VP KAMALA HARRIS heads to Manhattan for “Late Night with Seth Meyers.” First and only statewide debate between Ohio’s JD VANCE and TIM RYAN. … Tuesday: Four weeks until Election Day. … Wednesday: Sept. inflation numbers (producer price index) released. … Thursday: Jan. 6 committee holds its first hearing since July. More Sept. inflation numbers (consumer price index) released. First debate between Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER and TUDOR DIXON. … Friday: Only scheduled debate between Georgia Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK and HERSCHEL WALKER.
BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Russia blasts Kyiv, other Ukrainian cities in deadly strikes,” by AP’s Adam Schreck and Hanna Arhirova: “Russia unleashed a lethal barrage of strikes against multiple Ukrainian cities Monday, smashing civilian targets including downtown Kyiv, where at least six people were killed amid burnt-out cars and shattered buildings. The onslaught brought back into focus the grim reality of war after months of easing tensions in the capital.”
BREAKING THIS MORNING — The Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to BEN BERNANKE, DOUGLAS DIAMOND and PHILIP DYBVIG “for research on banks and financial crises.” In a statement, the Nobel committee said that “[t]he laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts.”
ABORTION VS. INFLATION — Though it’s a tad too simplistic, if you had to boil down the midterm fight between Democrats and Republicans to a single headline, that might be it. Yes, Democrats are talking a lot about health care and warning about the return of Trumpism (and Trump). Yes, the GOP is increasingly playing up the issue of crime. But the political see-saw in these final 29 days seems most sensitive to how much weight voters are giving to abortion rights and rising prices.
At the Washington Post, data analyst David Byler has a useful dive into recent polling to explain how President JOE BIDEN’s approval rating is highly sensitive to concerns about the economy, especially inflation — but that Democratic candidates have been able to partially inoculate themselves from his troubles by focusing on issues, especially abortion rights.
Byler writes: “If Biden’s net approval — the difference between his approval rating and his disapproval rating — were the only factor in the midterm elections, the Republicans would win the House by a healthy margin. But, instead, two strong political forces — voters’ discontent with Biden and their frustration with the GOP on abortion — are pushing against each other.
“Voters still might start to blame Democrats for the economy and Biden’s policy disappointments, allowing the GOP to retake the lead before November. But for now, they’re letting Democrats distance themselves from Biden — and, at least momentarily, defy historical trends.”
Two points made in a mid-September polling memo from the RNC made it clear that top GOP strategists realized the Dem comeback was real:
— “While a vast majority of voters trust the GOP to fix the economy, a majority have yet to blame Biden and Democrats.”
— “Early on, the RNC understood that the Dobbs decision could shift the electorate and it became the focus of a national poll.”
What clouds the picture is that the much-discussed improvement for Democrats since the Dobbs decision also coincided with a 99-day drop in gas prices. Now, gas prices are rising and, despite a good jobs report on Friday, the news is filled with gloomy headlines about the economy. “Confidence slumps around the globe as cost of living crisis bites,” said the FT over the weekend. “Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn,” reads a gloomy headline in the WSJ. “The job market is still strong, but the long-expected slowdown has begun,” notes the NYT this morning.
So is the Dobbs effect fading as the economic storm clouds gather?
On the one hand, the Georgia Senate race — which has dominated political news since last Monday night, when the Daily Beast reported that in 2009, Republican HERSCHEL WALKER paid for his then-girlfriend’s abortion (reporting that Walker has denied and POLITICO has not independently verified) — suggests abortion is more central to the midterms than ever.
“Month before midterms, abortion in focus as GOP backs Herschel Walker,” says the WaPo in a piece by Amy Wang and Azi Paybarah.
They write: “Bombshell allegations about Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Georgia, have drawn renewed attention to the debate over abortion, which Democrats are hoping will boost turnout among their supporters, though polling suggests it may be lower than it was two years ago.”
But whatever the continued interest in the story of Walker’s hypocrisy on the issue — and his debate against RAPHAEL WARNOCK on Friday will be one of the most-watched political events of 2022 — there are other signs that the issue is losing some salience. (Related read: “Democrats sidestep Herschel Walker abortion firestorm,” by AJC’s Patricia Murphy, Greg Bluestein and Tia Mitchell)
The AP’s Steve Peoples’ headed to Nevada and kicked the tires of Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO’s campaign to find out whether the vulnerable incumbent had placed too big a bet on Dobbs saving her candidacy. “Nevada Senate race tests potency of abortion focus for Dems” is the headline, and we imagine you will see several versions of this piece pegged to races around the country in the coming days.
The lede: “Democrats predicted abortion would be Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s saving grace. But inside Nevada’s crowded union halls, across its sun-scorched desert towns and on the buzzing Las Vegas strip, there are signs that outrage over the Supreme Court’s decision to dismantle abortion rights may not be enough to overcome intensifying economic concerns.
“That’s leaving Cortez Masto as the Senate’s most vulnerable Democrat in the final month of a volatile midterm election year. Her predicament is the starkest example of the challenge facing Democrats nationwide as they try to capitalize on anger over the abortion ruling while Republicans focus on crime and stubborn inflation. If Cortez Masto can’t turn things around, the GOP would be well on its way to netting the one seat they need to retake the Senate and blunt the final two years of President Joe Biden’s term.
“In an interview, Cortez Masto sidestepped questions about her fragile political standing. She acknowledged ‘there’s more work to be done’ on the economy in a working-class state in which gasoline remains over $5.40 per gallon, the unemployment rate is higher than the national average and spending at casinos has not kept pace with inflation.”
And don’t miss this quote from JAMES CARVILLE that will be widely circulated today among Dems:
“‘A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don’t think so,’ said Carville, a vocal Cortez Masto ally who has sent dozens of fundraising emails on her behalf. ‘It’s a good issue. But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.’”
Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your best drinking game ideas for the Walker-Warnock debate: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
A TITANIC CASE? — Federal prosecutors are planning to unleash some star power at the upcoming trial of Fugees’ star PRAS MICHEL on charges he conspired to make illegal campaign contributions and acted as an unregistered foreign agent for a Malaysian financier charged in the 1MDB scandal, JHO LOW.
Our colleague Josh Gerstein reports that a government witness list filed Sunday includes actor LEONARDO DiCAPRIO, whose 2013 film “The Wolf of Wall Street” was funded in part by money prosecutors allege was looted from the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund.
Other prosecution witnesses listed for Michel’s trial, set to open Nov. 4 in Washington: former White House chief of staff JOHN KELLY, former national security adviser H.R. McMASTER, former deputy national security adviser MATT POTTINGER, casino mogul STEVE WYNN and former RNC deputy finance chair ELLIOT BROIDY.
BIG PICTURE
HOW IT’S PLAYING — Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania are deploying doctors on the campaign trail to send the message that abortion restrictions will hurt the state’s health care sector. “It’s a major shift for Pennsylvania’s medical community — the fourth-largest job sector in the state, employing more than 400,000 people — as doctors and medical organizations are usually hesitant to wade into politics, careful to maintain good relations with both the Democratic governor and Republican legislature,” Alice Miranda Ollstein reports from Philadelphia.
OBAMA OFF THE BENCH — “Democrats won’t get as much Obama as they want in the midterms. But he has some other plans,” by CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere: “[Former President BARACK] OBAMA’s small staff has … been coordinating which appearances he’ll make and which ads he’ll record with President Joe Biden’s White House political operation and the Democratic National Committee. A similar effort already happened with fundraising emails his name has been put on — political coordination between a sitting and former president, which — like so much else in current politics — is unprecedented.”
DEMS’ DEMOGRAPHIC DILEMMA — “Florida offers warning for Democrats about Hispanic voters,” by WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor and Silvia Foster-Frau in Kissimmee, Fla.: “Strategists privately admit that Democrats are still not investing enough to attract Florida’s Hispanic voters as the party sees that years of neglect and cultural conservatism has made the voting base too partisan to sway. Florida is emerging as a glaring warning for Democrats about what can happen if they do not aggressively court Hispanic voters in other states, some party strategists say.”
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
COLORADO HEATS UP — The Senate Leadership Fund is officially jumping into the Colorado Senate race to back Republican JOE O’DEA in his effort to unseat Democratic Sen. MICHAEL BENNET, Natalie Allison reports. “The Senate Leadership Fund on Friday made a $1.25 million contribution to the pro-O’Dea super PAC American Policy Fund, an investment the group first confirmed with POLITICO. The spend is significantly smaller than SLF’s expenditures in other battleground states this year, though spokesman JACK PANDOL said they ‘aren’t closing the door on further investment’ in Colorado, and are ‘keeping an eye on’” the race.
— “Michael Bennet Authored the Democrats’ Most Successful Pandemic Aid Program. Why Is His Senate Reelection Shaky?” by The New Republic’s Grace Segers: “The expanded child tax credit lifted millions of kids out of poverty, but Congress failed to extend it. Now the Colorado senator is facing the difficulty of running on an expired policy.”
KNOWING TED BUDD — Rep. TED BUDD (R-N.C.) is on track to become the next senator from North Carolina and is “among the most conservative members of the House, with a voting record to show for it,” Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers write. “Budd’s House record sheds some light on how he might break from [Sen. THOM] TILLIS, [retiring Sen. RICHARD] BURR and the late Sen. KAY HAGAN (D-N.C.), a trio that occasionally tacked to the center on a narrow range of issues.”
KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE — “The Vulnerability of John Fetterman,” by N.Y. Mag’s Rebecca Traister: “In the final weeks, [Democrat JOHN] FETTERMAN is banking on the hope that voters will see in his vulnerability a new way to appreciate his strength. In our conversation, he was lucid and animated, eloquent about the stakes of the race and incensed about the nasty tenor of Oz’s campaign. There were also moments in which his syntax got snarled or he had trouble getting a word out. ‘I really can’t hide it even if I wanted to,’ he said.”
— “We asked undecided voters in Pa. why they’re still unconvinced. We got a range of answers,” by the Philly Inquirer’s Julia Terruso: “There’s an instinct to think of undecided voters as politically engaged moderates wrestling with policy contrasts. That is almost never the case. Most are just not paying attention yet.”
GEORGIA ON MY MIND — “‘Saved by Grace’: Evangelicals Find a Way Forward With Herschel Walker,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Dias: “The Senate race in Georgia has become an explicit matchup of two increasingly divergent versions of American Christianity. Walker reflects the way conservative Christianity continues to be defined by its fusion with right-wing politics and tolerance for candidates who, whatever their personal failings or flaws, advance its power and cause. Mr. Walker has wielded his Christianity as an ultimate defense, at once denying the abortion allegations are true while also pointing to the mercy and forgiveness in Jesus as a divine backstop.”
BATTLE FOR THE STATES
BULLETIN — “Shooting outside Rep. Zeldin’s home in NY; family unhurt,” by CNN’s Greg Clary and Isa Kaufman Geballe: “The two individuals who were shot had been laying down under the family’s front porch and in the bushes in front of the porch, [GOP gubernatorial nominee and Rep. LEE] ZELDIN said. … Suffolk County Police said the shooting has no connection to the Zeldin family. A police spokesperson said the two people injured in the incident have been transported to area hospitals for treatment.”
DOWN-BALLOT DOWNLOAD — “Why Little-Noticed State Legislative Races Could Be Hugely Consequential,” by NYT’s Nick Corasaniti: “With Congress often deadlocked and conservatives dominating the Supreme Court, state governments increasingly steer the direction of voting laws, abortion access, gun policy, public health, education and other issues dominating the lives of Americans.”
AD WARS — “Newsom TV ad asks Californians to back abortion protections — not him,” by Christopher Cadelago: “Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM is launching his first TV ads of the election cycle in California — and he isn’t asking voters to support his campaign. Instead, the California Democrat is spending $2.5 million over the next two weeks to implore Californians to back Proposition 1, a measure on the fall ballot that would enshrine the right to abortion and contraceptives in the state constitution.”
HOT ADS
With help from Steve Shepard
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Michigan: The pro-gun control group Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund is launching a $2.3 million ad campaign in Michigan, writes Zach Montellaro. The group is running a pair of ads — both on TV and on digital platforms in the Detroit media market — going after Republican gubernatorial nominee TUDOR DIXON. One ad, called “Extreme,” attacks Dixon over both abortion and gun policy: “She opposes a woman’s right to make her own health decisions, and wants to ban abortions,” the ad’s narrator says. “She opposes common-sense gun safety laws that save lives.” The second ad is focused on gun violence, saying Dixon is “flooding our streets with guns” and that “she even supports a plan that could cripple police, with deep budget cuts.”
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK —Texas: The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund is launching a new ad in Texas’ 28th Congressional District today featuring local news clips from the FBI’s search of Democratic Rep. HENRY CUELLAR’s home. Watch the ad
New Mexico: Republican gubernatorial candidate MARK RONCHETTI’s latest ad highlights a sexual harassment claim against Democratic Gov. MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM before her election in 2018. “Wouldn’t this get you fired?” a narrator asks.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
PLAYBOOK READS
CONGRESS
GREENER PASTURES — AP’s Lisa Mascaro chronicles the rise of Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) within the Republican Party. “Once shunned as a political pariah for her extremist rhetoric, the Georgia congresswoman who spent her first term in the House stripped of institutional power by Democrats is being celebrated by Republicans and welcomed into the GOP fold. If Republicans win the House majority in the November election, Greene is poised to become an influential player shaping the GOP agenda, an agitator with clout. … This is the outlook for the Republican Party in the Trump era, the normalizing of once fringe figures into the highest ranks of political power.”
PLAN OF AT-TAX — “GOP Gains in Congress Would Challenge Biden’s IRS Expansion,” by WSJ’s Richard Rubin: “The real challenge to Democrats’ IRS plans goes beyond [KEVIN] McCARTHY’s first-day agenda. It is embedded in the agency’s continuing need for lawmakers to approve annual spending that rises steadily to cover workers’ cost-of-living pay increases and other expenses. Between now and the end of 2031, when the $80 billion expires, those annual budgets are projected to total $138 billion.”
JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH
TALE OF THE TAPES — “McCarthy told 2 officers in private meeting that Trump had no idea his supporters were attacking Capitol on January 6, newly obtained audio shows,” by CNN’s Zachary Cohen
TRUMP CARDS
FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Steele dossier source heads to trial, in possible last stand for Durham,” by WaPo’s Salvador Rizzo and Devlin Barrett: “IGOR DANCHENKO — a researcher who fed information to former British spy CHRISTOPHER STEELE, and whose contributions ended up in the now-infamous “Steele dossier” of allegations about Trump’s ties to Russia in 2016 — goes on trial Tuesday. The trial is expected to last one week.”
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
TOP-ED — Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) and Yale’s JEFFREY SONNENFELD write for POLITICO Magazine: “The Best Way to Respond to Saudi Arabia’s Embrace of Putin”: “The Saudi decision was a pointed blow to the U.S., but the U.S. also has a way to respond: It can promptly pause the massive transfer of American warfare technology into the eager hands of the Saudis. Simply put, America shouldn’t be providing such unlimited control of strategic defense systems to an apparent ally of our greatest enemy — nuclear bomb extortionist Vladmir Putin. That is why we are proposing bicameral legislation in the Senate and House on Tuesday that will immediately halt all U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia.”
ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA — “NKorea confirms simulated use of nukes to ‘wipe out’ enemies,” by AP’s Hyung-Jin Kim in Seoul, South Korea
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
IAN LATEST — “Hurricane Ian traumatized Floridians. It also erased their nest eggs,” by Zack Colman and Katy O’Donnell
POLICY CORNER
THE CULTURE WARS — The Education Department left transgender student athletes out of its sweeping June proposal to revamp Title IX, the federal education law that prohibts gender-based discrimination. Now the department is under pressure to issue an anti-discrimination rule on sports just as Republicans step up their attacks against Dems on trans athletes, Bianca Quilantan reports. “The Education Department has two options: Push out a rule that’s likely to put campaigning Democrats on the defensive, or risk giving a Republican-controlled Congress more time to reverse the rule — and prevent anything ‘substantially similar.’”
THE HIDDEN BATTLE — “As suicides rise, U.S. military seeks to address mental health,” by AP’s Ashraf Khalil
WAR IN UKRAINE
THE GLOBAL IMPACT — “In Kyiv, U.S. midterms, and need for aid, cast shadow on battlefield gains,” by WaPo’s Missy Ryan: “In Kyiv, Ukrainians voice hope, and some apprehension, that next month’s legislative polls won’t undercut the staggering flow of U.S. weapons and security aid that Washington has authorized since the start of President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Feb 24. invasion. And they warn that a softening of Republican sentiment has the potential to sap a recent surge in battlefield momentum.”
THE BUSINESS OF WAR — “BAE, U.S. in Talks to Restart M777 Howitzer Production After Ukraine Success,” by WSJ’s Alistair MacDonald and Daniel Michaels
PLAYBOOKERS
Jennifer Granholm ran the Army 10-Miler.
OUT AND ABOUT — British Ambassador Karen Pierce hosted a garden reception at her residence on Sunday celebrating the National Football League’s International Series games in London, which this weekend saw the New York Giants beat the Green Bay Packers. SPOTTED: Senay Bulbul, Josh Stanton, Jonathan Nabavi, Brendon Plack and Roz Turner, Catherine Nabavi, Jason Wright, Joe Maloney, Brandon Etheridge, Fred Humphries, Michael Serwadda, Andrew Kovalcin, Bradley Hayes, Naveen Parmar, Sophie Trainor Khanahmadi, Chris and Lauren Grieco, Rachel Wagley, Ted McCann, Elliott Tomlinson, Nathan Hallford, Deena Tauster, Matt Bravo, Stuart Chapman and Marty and Celeste Gold.
MEDIA MOVE — David Siegel is now a producer for MSNBC’s “The Beat With Ari Melber.” He previously was a producer at CNN.
TRANSITION — Elayne Weiss is joining the Federal Housing Administration as a special policy adviser. She previously was director of housing, community development and insurance policy for the House Financial Services Committee.
WEDDINGS — Cari Lutkins, senior manager for business development at Clinique and a Trump NSC and OPIC alum, and Elliot Kuck, a special agent in the State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service, got married on Oct. 1 at Martin’s Tavern, the first wedding in their 90 year history and was attended by the restaurant’s owners, Billy and Gina Martin, who are family friends of Lutkins. The couple met while both in NYC working for then-U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Kelly Craft when Elliot was on Craft’s security detail and Cari was Craft’s deputy chief of staff. Pic … Another pic
— Laura Howard, a VP of development at political consulting firm Sentinel Strategic Advisors, and Matt Kilfoyle, a VP of strategy and planning at Fidelity Investments, got married on Saturday in St. Tropez, France, at Domaine de la Croix vineyard. The couple met in 2012 in Boston working on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. Pic ... Pic of Romney alums SPOTTED: Jill Barclay, Annie Starke Lange, Ally Schmeiser, Magan Munson Hutchens, Owen Dorney, Kaitlyn Raymond, Chris McMillan, Lexi Longwell and Muireann Mageras.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Richard Weiner, account director at Coupa Software and secretary of the board of directors at FII Marketing, and Sarah Pillemer, neuropsychologist and assistant professor at Brown University’s Warren Alpert School of Medicine, welcomed Mark Andrew Weiner on Thursday. He came in at 7 lbs, 14 oz. and is named after his late grandfather Mark S. Weiner, a giant in Democratic politics, lifelong Rhode Islander and longtime friend of the Clinton family. Pic
BIRTHWEEK (was Sunday): Amy Dacey of the Sine Institute and American University
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: California Gov. Gavin Newsom … NYT’s Adam Nagourney … Reps. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) … the White House’s Natalie Montelongo … Alexandra LaManna … Fox Corp.’s Raj Shah and Brian Nick … State Department’s Spencer Anderson ... Matt Rohan of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce … Miriam Roday … POLITICO’s Clea Benson and Laura DiAngelo … S-3 Group’s Michael Long … APCO Worldwide’s Brandon Neal … Jason Mida … Jessica Powell of Rep. Steve Womack’s (R-Ark.) office … Adnan Mohamed … Christina Harvey of Stand Up America … Guillermo Meneses … Michael Borden of Sidley Austin … former Reps. Joe Pitts (R-Pa.) and Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) … Dirk Maurer … Seth Levey … Victoria Glover … Raquel Krähenbühl … Laurence Tribe … oil and gas adviser Healy Baumgardner … Caroline Wren
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