Playbook: McCarthy cuts a late-night deal

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

LINE OF THE DAY … “I can tell you that freedom has been testing very, very strongly.” — Democratic pollster CELINDA LAKE to New York Mag’s Gabriel Debenedetti on Biden’s 2024 message.

McCARTHY GRINDS IT OUT — After declaring confidently over the weekend that House Republicans will pass his GOP debt ceiling bill this week, Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY faced a rude reminder yesterday about the pains of governing with a five-seat majority.

But he appears to be on the cusp of a breakthrough: The House Rules Committee voted at 2:20 a.m. to send the legislation to the floor for a final vote that could come as soon as today.

The early morning action came after hours of negotiations with a handful of holdouts — and after McCarthy’s top lieutenants insisted that they would not be changing the bill to accommodate them. “We’re done negotiating,” said Rep. MIKE JOHNSON (La.), said at one point last night.

Yet in the end McCarthy blinked: The measure advanced to the floor with a last-minute amendment that appears to incorporate changes sought by some of the House GOP’s most conservative members, including Reps. ANDY BIGGS (Ariz.) and MATT GAETZ (Fla.). The new provisions include accelerating a plan to impose work requirements on those receiving federal benefits including food stamps and cutting more Inflation Reduction Act programs.

GOP leaders also appeared to cut a deal with another group of fence-sitters: Midwestern Republicans concerned about repealing ethanol subsidies. The late-night amendment also rolls back an effort to repeal “[i]ncentives for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and alternative fuels” as well as “[s]econd generation biofuel incentives.”

Will this solve McCarthy’s math problem? We’ll see. He can withstand no more than four defections assuming all members vote and Democrats, as expected, stay united in opposition.

The last-minute changes left Democrats seething, with Massachusetts Rep. JIM McGOVERN, the top Rules Democrat, calling them the result of a “midnight seance” that left the bill “even more draconian, even more devastating, even worse, even more mean.”

The clock is ticking. The House is scheduled to be in through Friday then break for a recess until mid-May. McCarthy will be traveling over the weekend with a bipartisan delegation to Israel, where he’s scheduled to address the Knesset on Monday. More from our Hill team

Meanwhile: “Senators plot bipartisan spending backup plan amid McCarthy-Biden split,” by Caitlin Emma

JUST POSTED — “The Washington gambler,” by WaPo’s Ben Terris: “SEAN McELWEE, a young Democratic insider with friends in high places, bet on himself in the post-Trump era. But that wasn’t all he was betting on.” The piece is the first excerpt from Terris’ forthcoming book, “The Big Break: The Gamblers, Party Animals, and True Believers Trying to Win in Washington While America Loses Its Mind” ($30)

A taste:

“Sean was not shy about his gambling. He told people he bet $20,000 on Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. He’d make prop bets with his buddies around the poker table. He’d sometimes end conference calls with other organizations by seeing if anyone wanted to make a wager with him about upcoming elections. He put tens of thousands of dollars a year on prediction markets, sometimes on contests as far‐flung as the Seattle mayoral race (‘I won like $6,000 on that,’ he told me). He once told me he would sometimes commission little polls ‘mostly’ for the purpose of getting intel that he could use to make smart bets.

“At that earlier poker night, Sean had demurred when one of his buddies asked if he ever bet on races he was working. But the next time he hosted a game, Sean showed off a pair of pink high‐tops he had bought with the money he’d made betting against NINA TURNER, the more-liberal candidate in the Democratic Ohio primary. ‘I was polling for Nina Turner’s super PAC,’ he announced to the table. ‘So I knew SHONTEL BROWN was going to win.’

“When I asked Sean if he worried his clients might read him as some kind of degenerate gambler, he said putting skin in the game forced a guy like him to be serious about his craft.

“As the Biden era picked up speed, and Washington regained its muscle memory, it seemed clear to me that Sean was destined either to become the biggest thing in Democratic politics or to completely flame out. Either possibility seemed like a good bet.”

BIDEN LAUNCH, DAY TWO — JOE BIDEN and KAMALA HARRIS said yesterday they’re running for reelection, but chances are you heard more about TUCKER CARLSON, DON LEMON and McCarthy, who overshadowed the rollout.

As Eli Stokols notes, that’s just fine with Team Biden, who is gearing up for a 2024 version of what worked pretty well for him and Democrats in 2020 and 2022: lay low, keep the spotlight on MAGA extremism, and beat the drum on the popular items in the laws Biden passed before the House flipped.

Yesterday was a textbook example of the 2024 version of the basement strategy, with Biden’s early morning launch video emphasizing Jan. 6, book bans and attacks on abortion rights.

Later in the day Biden spoke before the North America’s Building Trades Unions and bragged about his big bills: The BIF — yes, we miss that acronym, too! — and the IRA. It was an official White House event, not a campaign rally, and he never mentioned his reelection launch. White House aides, meanwhile, spent the day offering reporters a steady stream of hits on McCarthy and House Republicans.

This will all look very familiar if you were paying attention in 2020 and 2022. And because the number of swing states is so small and the number of swing counties within those swing states is so small, the messaging from Biden will be awfully familiar as well.

Speaking of that…

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The pro-Biden Super PAC Unite The Country will announce this morning that it’s going up on the air today with a $1 million ad buy in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — three of the roughly eight swing states that are likely to decide the 2024 election. Trump narrowly won all three states in 2016 and Biden narrowly won them in 2020.

The positive ad is called “Promise,” and focuses on Biden’s record on prescription drugs, manufacturing, and infrastructure.

Also … “Top Dem super PAC starts Biden ad blitz, pledges $75 million campaign effort,” by Myah Ward: “Priorities USA, according to plans first shared with POLITICO, will also announce its overall investment target of $75 million for the 2024 presidential cycle — $5 million more than its 2020 target. The group will use the money to reach voters in key battleground states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

More Biden reads…

“Biden v. Trump 2.0: What’s old is new again,” by Jonathan Lemire and Meridith McGraw: “For a country that likes to pride itself on its youthful vitality, it now is more likely than not that come November 2024, voters will be left to choose between two men who would be octogenarians while in the nation’s highest office.”

“Biden Is Running on His Record (and Away From It),” by NYT’s Peter Baker: “President Biden has acknowledged that he has not accomplished all he wished to. But that, he maintains, is an argument for his re-election.”

“Biden’s balance sheet: Weak numbers, but in Donald Trump, a valuable foil,” by WaPo’s Dan Balz

“2024 race won’t be like 2020. That’s good and bad for Biden,” by AP’s Will Weissert and Zeke Miller

“With Biden’s 2024 Bid, Kamala Harris Will Be Under More Scrutiny,” by NYT’s Katie Rogers: “The vice president will be central to President Biden’s re-election efforts, particularly on the issue of abortion access. Both critics and supporters say the increased spotlight is a good thing.”

“‘Don’t get in our way,’ Harris urges in speech at Howard University,” by Eugene Daniels: “Though Harris had just one line about the reelection, (‘I stand here, proud to run for reelection with President Joe Biden … so we can finish the job’), for the crowd, the impending fight was undergirding her appearance.”

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your reviews of Biden’s first day as an official 2024 candidate: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s camp is making a bold claim this morning in a memo on the state of the 2024 GOP presidential primary. BEN YOHO, the CEO of Vivek 2024, predicts that Ramaswamy will be polling in second or third place nationally by the end of the year.

“As Trump and DeSantis continue to destroy each other over the summer and into the fall,” says Yoho, “GOP voters will be looking for a third alternative who is an outsider and embraces the Trump/America First agenda.”

In fact, this time next year, it will be Trump vs. Vivek, says the campaign: “By early 2024, GOP Primary voters will have a clear choice between President Trump and the memories of America First 1.0, or Vivek Ramaswamy and the promise of America First 2.0.” Read the full campaign memo here

The current RCP average has Ramaswamy polling at 1.5% nationally.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Democratic Data Exchange will serve as the primary national real-time data sharing hub for Biden’s reelection campaign and the DNC for the 2024 cycle, a source familiar with the arrangement tells Playbook. DDx’s data set — which comprises 3.4 billion data points — is updated in real-time by hundreds of clients who contribute their own unique program data to the exchange, which currently covers 85-95% of registered voters in battleground states.

DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — “Florida GOP lawmakers ready move allowing DeSantis to run for president without resigning,” by Gary Fineout: “With time running out on this year’s annual session, Senate Republicans will add the provision to a sweeping elections bill that will go before the full Senate on Wednesday. The elections bill is a top priority for DeSantis and Republicans and is expected to go to the governor’s desk between now and May 5.”

HALEY’S COMMENT — “Nikki Haley promised to address abortion ‘directly and openly.’ Then she didn’t,” by Natalie Allison: GOP presidential candidate NIKKI HALEY “offered few specifics during her speech inside a converted breakroom at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America’s Arlington office, instead calling for the country to reach an unspecified ‘national consensus’ on abortion to ‘save as many lives and help as many moms as possible.’

“Haley did not embrace a specific time threshold after which she would want to see abortion banned, though the hosts of the event said she had done so to them in private discussions. Afterward, she did not take questions from the reporters gathered.”

The WSJ editorial board take: “Nikki Haley Gets Real on Abortion: The GOP candidate makes the pro-life case for political realism.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

HAPPENING NEXT MONTH — “Biden to visit Japan, Australia for meetings with allies,” by AP’s Zeke Miller

HEADS UP — “Hunter Biden ordered to appear at Arkansas contempt hearing in a paternity-related case,” by CNN’s Marshall Cohen

TRUMP CARDS

AT THE TRUMP TRIAL — “Trial begins in civil lawsuit accusing Trump of rape,” by Erica Orden: “Describing how [E. JEAN] CARROLL and Trump bantered playfully before he allegedly assaulted her in the dressing room, Carroll’s lawyer, SHAWN CROWLEY, told the 9-person jury, ‘the moment they went inside, everything changed. Suddenly, nothing was funny.’ … Trump, who isn’t required to appear at the proceedings, didn’t attend the first day of the trial. His lawyer, JOE TACOPINA, sought to portray Carroll’s claim as a ‘sick story’ while also trying to reassure jurors that they could side with his client even if they dislike him.”

CRIMINAL CASE LATEST — “Manhattan D.A. Seeks to Limit Trump’s Access to Some Evidence,” by NYT’s Jonah Bromwich, William Rashbaum and Ben Protess

JUDICIARY SQUARE

ROBERTS’ RULES — “Roberts declines to appear at Senate’s Supreme Court ethics hearing,” by Daniella Diaz

AS THE CROW FLIES — “Clarence Thomas Billionaire Benefactor Harlan Crow Bought Citizenship in Island Tax Haven,” by POGO’s Jason Paladino and The Intercept’s Ken Klippenstein

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Judge tosses Devin Nunes suit over Esquire article,” by Josh Gerstein: “U.S. District Court Judge C.J. WILLIAMS ruled Tuesday that the claims at issue in writer Ryan Lizza’s story — ‘DEVIN NUNES’s Family Farm is Hiding a Politically Explosive Secret’ — were essentially accurate.” Read the 101-page opinion

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

AT THE PROUD BOYS TRIAL — “Proud Boys blame Trump as defendants prepare to find out fate in sedition trial,” by NBC’s Ryan Reilly

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

LEAK LATEST — “U.S. is concerned about rivals’ space threats, leaked documents show,” by WaPo’s Christian Davenport: “Russia’s troubled space program ‘very likely will diminish during the next decade’ as it faces increased global competition, U.S. sanctions and the rise of SpaceX, which has eaten a large chunk of Russia’s revenue, according to a leaked top secret U.S. intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post. At the same time, China has developed significant capabilities ‘to hold key U.S. and Allied space assets at risk,’ and would deploy them in any conflict with Taiwan, according to another leaked document.”

HEADS UP — “Taliban kill mastermind of suicide bombing at Kabul airport,” by AP’s Farnoush Amiri, Matthew Lee, Aamer Madhani and Lolita Baldor: “He was killed during a series of battles early this month in southern Afghanistan between the Taliban and the Islamic State group’s affiliate, according to several officials.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Venezuela’s Juan Guaidó not seeking political asylum in U.S.,” by AP’s Regina Garcia Cano in Mexico City

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

NASHVILLE NORTH — “Republican leaders seek ‘disciplinary consequences’ for silenced Montana transgender lawmaker Zooey Zephyr, letter says,” by CBS’ Faris Tanyos: “State Rep. ZOOEY ZEPHYR posted a letter to her Twitter account she received from GOP House leaders Tuesday night which states that a motion will be presented on the House floor Wednesday afternoon to determine whether Zephyr’s ‘actions’ during a rally Monday on her behalf necessitate ‘disciplinary consequences.’ … Zephyr tweeted that she could be either censured or expelled, and that she will be given ‘a chance to speak.’”

MASA REBELLION — “The Hot Issue Bedeviling Arizona’s New Governor: Tamales,” by NYT’s Jack Healy in Phoenix: “Gov. KATIE HOBBS vetoed a bill that would have allowed an informal network of home cooks to sell perishable food legally. The backlash has been fierce.”

GROUNDED — “Mayday in rural America: What happens when airlines leave a city,” by Liz Crampton

MEDIAWATCH

END OF AN ERA — “As Carlson and Lemon Exit, a Chapter Closes on Cable’s Trump War,” analysis by NYT’s Jim Rutenberg: “In their most recent incarnations, Mr. Carlson and Mr. Lemon were both products of the Trump years — set-top-box combatants who often made headlines themselves by giving their audiences generous helpings of indignation and outrage. Now, in different ways, their ousters represent at least a temporary pulling back from the excesses of the media coverage that the Trump election, presidency and post-presidency spawned.”

YOWZA — “Fox Has a Secret ‘Oppo File’ to Keep Tucker Carlson in Check, Sources Say,” by Rolling Stone’s Diana Falzone and Asawin Suebsaeng

Related reads: “Where can Tucker Carlson and Don Lemon go now?” by WaPo’s Paul Farhi … “‘Good riddance’: Pentagon officials cheer Tucker Carlson’s ouster,” by Lara Seligman … “Tucker Carlson joked about deporting me on air for ‘good TV.’ That’s the kind of host he was,” by Jose Antonio Vargas for L.A. Times

PLAYBOOKERS

Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Morgan Griffith might need a geography refresher.

Jacinda Ardern is going to Harvard — sort of.

Jennifer Beals, Leisha Hailey, Katherine Moennig and Ilene Chaiken — the cast and co-creator of “The L Word” — popped into the White House briefing yesterday.

John Podesta was interrupted by demonstrators from Climate Defiance — who are pledging to butt in on the White House Correspondents Dinner festivities later this week.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Embassy of Canada hosted an event on its rooftop with the NHL yesterday evening in honor of the United By Hockey mobile museum, which will be stationed in front of the embassy this week, highlighting diversity in hockey. Guests were treated to a Canadian poutine bar, Canadian lobster and Crown Royal tasting. SPOTTED: Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Marty Walsh, Gary Bettman and Major Garrett.

— The PGA Tour, Motion Picture Association and Netflix hosted a screening yesterday of the “Full Swing” docuseries at the MPA offices in downtown D.C. SPOTTED: Allison Keller, Marsha Oliver, Jason Gore, Ashlee Rich Stephenson, David Polyansky, Samantha Dravis, Erin Perrine, Bobby Babcock, Jessica Szymanski, Evan Swarztrauber, Noah Vehafric, Jimmy Soni, Heather Yearwood, Jessica Furst Johnson, Philip Singleton and Mary Ann Laconte.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Chris Cox and Chasen Bullock have launched Caliber Contact, a direct mail and comms firm for Republican candidates, GOP-aligned groups and corporations. Cox is currently president of Capitol 6 Advisors and is a former executive director of the NRA, and Bullock will be the political director for Capitol 6 Advisors and is a Rand Paul alum.

— Emily Benavides is joining P2 Public Affairs as senior VP. She most recently was comms director for Senate Homeland Security ranking member Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

TRANSITIONS — Jake Brennan is now associate director of congressional affairs at the American Osteopathic Association. He previously was a senior associate at Avalere Health. … Jessica Hatcher is now a director at Invariant. She previously was legislative director for Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) and is a Pramila Jayapal alum. …

… Jamie Simpson is now chief policy officer and counsel at the Council for Innovation Promotion. She previously was chief counsel for the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property and the Internet. … Monica Venzke is now deputy press secretary at American Bridge 21st Century PAC. She previously was deputy comms director at the New Hampshire Democratic Party, and is a Biden 2020 alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former first lady Melania Trump … State Department’s Suzy George and Nicole Elkon … Luke Frans … AKPD Message and Media’s Larry Grisolano … Greenwich Biosciences’ Karas Gross … Nick Penniman … NPR’s Domenico Montanaro and Ben Fishel … John Leganski … U.S. News and World Report’s Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder … Ebbie Yazdani … Rich Feuer Anderson’s Jared Sawyer … Shana Teehan … WaPo’s Paulina Firozi … Chris Curry … Morning Consult’s Vlad Gorshkov … Jonathan Rauch … NBCUniversal’s Phil Tahtakran … Meagan McCanna … CNN’s Jessica Schneider … Colin Wilhelm … Jackson Richman … Alex Morgan of the Progressive Turnout Project … NYT’s Russell Goldman … Kristi Stone Hamrick … former Reps. Niki Tsongas (D-Mass.) and Rod Blum (R-Iowa) … Carter Reese of Bullpen Strategy Group … Stagwell’s Jay Leveton

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: A previous version of this newsletter used an incorrect pronoun for Jamie Simpson.