National Grid serves about 1.9 million gas customers in parts of New York City and on Long Island, plus 600,000 gas and 1.6 million electric customers upstate. The U.K.-based utility also released a similar plan for its Massachusetts business on Tuesday.

The company said its plan can slash emissions from its system in line with New York’s emissions mandate, but the analysis appears to rest on rewriting the hard-fought climate law that New York legislators passed in 2019.

That includes a change to how the warming impact of greenhouse gasses is evaluated, with National Grid preferring a longer time horizon that gives less weight to the impact of methane — the molecule they want to continue delivering to customers. National Grid’s plan also doesn’t account for the carbon dioxide emitted when renewable gas is burned the same way New York does.

Wynter said no other state uses the 20-year global warming potential and treats renewable natural gas nearly the same as geologic gas.

“We believe this is something that has to be relooked at in New York state,” he said. “Renewable natural gas is a way of capturing those methane emissions that would occur naturally in water treatment facilities, at landfills, on farms, and instead of it venting into the atmosphere, us capturing it, repurposing it for use in the network, and then it displaces geological natural gas.”

What National Grid is calling for

National Grid’s vision calls for half of buildings to use electric heat pumps; a quarter to remain on a “fossil free” gas system; and the remaining quarter to use electric most of the time with “fossil free” gas backups on the coldest winter days.

Energy efficiency would reduce demand. The gas system would gradually downsize and transition to using 20 percent green hydrogen, with increasing amount of renewable gas making up the remainder, the company estimated.

The hybrid option could lower upfront costs for smaller electric heat pumps that would still supply cooling and heating benefits in more moderate temperatures.

The state’s draft climate plan does not envision any significant role for the gas system or hybrid heating options. Buildings are the largest source of emissions in New York.

In all pathways outlined to achieve the reductions in emissions required by law, electrification of nearly the entire building stock is the focus. Even under a proposal with higher use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen and renewable gas, 89 percent of buildings would need to be electrified to achieve the state’s goals, according to the state’s plan.

Just 7 percent would use alternative fuels. Hybrid options would be reserved for larger commercial or institutional buildings.

National Grid’s vision said their approach would be more affordable for customers and require a less extensive buildout of the electric grid. The company relied on a Massachusetts analysis to make the cost claim. The pathway cited by the company calls for electrifying more than 90 percent of buildings, but would leave gas in place as a backup on cold winter days. It calls for 75 percent renewable gas in the pipeline system by 2050.

What’s next in climate change debate

National Grid opposed a measure to ban fossil fuel use in new construction as part of the state budget passed earlier this month. A halt to the continued buildout of gas infrastructure is a key part of the draft climate plan.

“Our concern and my concern is taking off any clean energy options off of the table this early in the transition is our biggest concern,” Wynter said. “We fully agree that we’re going to have to electrify a large sector of the heat load in New York state.”

Building new homes with gas appliances likely locks them in for 15 to 30 years, given the lifespan of heating equipment. Costs for new single-family homes with electric heating in upstate New York are about $10,000 higher than gas, according to NYSERDA. Electric multifamily homes are closer to cost parity.

New York’s draft plan calls for smaller buildings and new single-family homes to be fossil free by 2024 and multifamily buildings over 4 stories by 2027. It calls for a ban on installing replacement gas furnaces in single-family and small buildings by 2030 and in larger settings by 2035.

The plan calls for 1 million to 2 million buildings to be electric by 2030 and thereafter 250,000 buildings electrified annually starting in 2030. National Grid notes that replacing gas appliances at the end of their useful life results in a slower pace, with just 4.7 million of about 8 million buildings electrified in 2050.

There’s no proposed mandate for current homeowners to install electric heating before a gas appliance needs to be replaced. Such an “early retirement” requirement is contemplated for larger buildings.

The measures call for drastically scaled-up incentives to support electrification and efficiency programs, but they lack a source of funding.

“This is an alternative pathway that continues to give some customers who cannot afford to convert and change out their equipment to an electric heat pump another pathway without giving up on our clean energy goals,” Wynter said. “I haven’t heard about incentives yet, so I’m going to assume a customer is going to pay to switch.”

Continuing to burn gas — whether from cow manure or extracted from the ground — and hydrogen would still have co-pollutant emissions that are harmful to human health, including NOx. Wynter said there are emerging technologies that can reduce the levels of those emissions.

Steps toward renewable energy

It’s not just New York’s climate plan that has focused on electrification of buildings as the best option. The recent U.N. IPCC report, Massachusetts’ decarbonization plan and the International Energy Agency all highlight heat pumps as a more viable strategy for tackling building emissions than hydrogen or renewable gas.

Massachusetts’ plan from National Grid warns that relying on renewable gas is more costly and poses a risk of locking in fossil fuel infrastructure if those sources fail to become available. Electrifying new buildings also avoids investment in stranded gas assets, the company contended.

Wynter said he’s confident renewable natural gas will be available in sufficient quantities for National Grid’s plan. National Grid expects to need 150 TBtus of renewable gas and 70 TBtus of hydrogen in 2050 to support its plan. Grid says that’s about 5 percent to 15 percent of the forecast potential production for the eastern U.S.

The American Gas Association estimates that, on the high end, New York has the potential to produce about 60 TBtus of renewable gas in 2040.

“I think we are seeing a lot of potential for renewable natural gas. I don’t think we have any evidence to say that we are in danger of it not coming to fruition,” Wynter said, citing the recent enactment of a renewable gas standard for utilities in California and clean fuel standards.

There are several landfill- or manure-to-pipeline projects in the works in upstate New York, with most of the emissions benefits set to be sold in California. National Grid’s own pilot for pipeline-grade gas from wastewater in New York City has faced years of delay but is scheduled to come online in July. The company is also piloting a green hydrogen blend to serve 800 homes in Hempstead.

The company, as part of its plan, also says it supports switching oil customers to electric heating, strengthening building codes and a “market-based” carbon price to incentivize clean heat.

National Grid fought a proposal to reshape the state’s building codes to account for lifecycle costs and emissions impacts to increase efficiency during state budget talks. Wynter said the company supports “any policies that will tighten up building standards.”

“But we are also cognizant and concerned about the cost that would have on end use consumers,” he added. “The right balance has to be struck, and we have to evaluate all technologies in its ability to deliver that — not just the electrification path.”

National Grid also wants to see the state require gas utilities to begin procuring renewable gas, with costs passed to ratepayers. The company also supports allowing utilities to own district geothermal heating systems, incentives for green hydrogen and the buildout of “hydrogen hubs” in some areas.

“Our plan does call for next steps — obviously engaging electeds, engaging our regulators, asking for permission to procure renewable natural gas,” Wynter said. “Also on these next steps are pilots all along the way to show us how to scale these things up.”

The state’s Climate Action Council is finalizing the draft plan, which is currently open for public comment, ahead of its end-of-year deadline.