No ATACMS to Ukraine following U.K. move

With help from Paul McLeary and Joe Gould

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The Biden administration has no plans to follow Britain’s lead in sending long-range missiles to Ukraine — with some officials saying the U.S. is now off the hook thanks to the U.K.’s planned delivery.

London is set to send missiles with a range of 300 km, or nearly 200 miles, The Washington Post’s KAREN DeYOUNG reports. That’s the same range as the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, that Washington has refused to transfer to Kyiv. U.K. Foreign Secretary JAMES CLEVERLY declined to comment on the timing and scale of future commitments during a Tuesday news conference alongside Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN.

But the possibility of British missiles heading to Ukraine has President JOE BIDEN’s team breathing a quiet sigh of relief, according to multiple U.S. officials who spoke to NatSec Daily. They hope it will silence critics who want the U.S. to send ATACMS since Ukraine may soon get the long-range capability from London.

NatSec Daily asked the U.S. officials if the administration might follow Britain’s lead in sending long-range missiles. One official, who like others wasn’t authorized to detail internal deliberations, said “our policy on ATACMS has not changed.” Instead, the official said the U.S. will continue to provide air-defense capabilities like Patriots, ammunition and armored vehicles.

There’s also the matter of the U.S. not having enough ATACMS in the arsenal to spare. “From a military standpoint, we have relatively few ATACMS, we do have to make sure that we maintain our own munitions inventories, as well,” Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, told Defense One in March.

Another person familiar with the discussions said Britain has told Ukraine the condition for providing long-range missiles is a commitment by Ukraine to use the capability only on targets inside of Ukrainian territory.

That mirrors the same concern the administration has about giving ATACMS to Ukraine. The last thing the White House wants is Ukrainian troops using them to strike deep into Russia.

The Inbox

PUTIN’S PUNY PARADE: Victory Day is supposed to be a major display of power for Russia, commemorating the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Germany in World War II. But it fell flat this year, to say the least.

During remarks in the Red Square on Tuesday, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN claimed Western nations are waging a “real war” on Moscow as they treat Ukraine as a “bargaining chip.” But the scaled-back celebrations — featuring a single Soviet-era tank, no aircraft and lasting less than an hour — underscored Russia’s vulnerability and military weakness instead of its might, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.

“There was lots of hardware that looks tank-adjacent, but isn’t officially a tank,” a Moscow resident watching the parade said.

Following the parade, Wagner Group chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN continued his verbal assault against Moscow’s top brass for not providing ammunition to his paramilitary forces, Reuters ANDREW OSBORN reports. He previously threatened to pull his troops from Bakhmut, the highly contested eastern city, but walked back his comments after Moscow promised to supply him with supplies to keep fighting.

Russia’s defense ministry has faced ongoing criticism during the war for shortcomings, and the latest spat between Prigozhin — a powerful oligarch with potential political ambitions — and the military leaders underscores a shifting power dynamic in the country, according to MAKSYM SKRYPCHENKO, president of Transatlantic Dialogue Center in Ukraine.

“While the defense ministry currently faces dwindling popularity in Russia, Prigozhin, conversely, is increasingly acquiring the attributes of a national hero, perceived as fighting against the corrupt and bureaucratic machinery,” Skrypchenko told NatSec Daily.

DEADLY GAZA AIRSTRIKE: An Israeli airstrike against the Islamic Jihad armed group in Gaza killed three of its leaders on Tuesday, as well as 10 civilians including children.

The attack on residential buildings ended a week-long ceasefire between the two sides, causing Israel and the Islamic Jihad, which is labeled by the United States and others as a terrorist organization, to brace for escalating violence, the New York Times’ ISABEL KERSHNER and RAJA ABDULRAHIM report.

A year after the Al Jazeera journalist SHIREEN ABU AKLEH was fatally shot — likely by an Israeli soldier — while covering an Israeli army raid in the West Bank, it’s improbable anyone will be held accountable, according to a report released by the Committee to Protect Journalists on Tuesday.

Over about two decades, 20 journalists’ deaths have been attributed to the Israeli Defense Forces, and no one has been held accountable for any of them, the report found.

IMRAN KHAN DETAINED: Pakistan’s former prime minister, IMRAN KHAN, was arrested Tuesday on corruption charges, pitting the now opposition leader against the nation’s civilian and military leadership.

T he Wall Street Journal’s SAEED SHAH reports that Khan, who is planning a comeback and is leading in opinion polls, “accuses the government of obfuscating over the date of national elections, due by October. Regional ballots this year haven’t taken place in the period required under the constitution.”

ADAM WEINSTEIN of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft said the arrest “takes an already escalating political firestorm and douses it with petrol.”

“The arrest is expected to generate large protests, possibly even riots, due to Imran Khan’s extensive political support across the country, especially in urban areas,” he continued.

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2024

KENNEDY: U.S. KILLED 300,000 IN KYIV: Democratic presidential candidate ROBERT KENNEDY Jr. said the United States’ support for Kyiv against Russia makes it responsible for thousands of Ukrainian casualties.

The U.S. has “killed more than 300,000 Ukrainian troops,” he said in a Monday interview with Fox News’ SEAN HANNITY. “What we’re doing in Ukraine is not good for the Ukrainian people.”

The number of Ukrainian deaths is actually estimated to be between 15,500 and 17,500, according to purported U.S intelligence leaked online. An assessment collated by the U.S. indicates Russia has suffered between 35,500 and 43,000 deaths.

Kennedy failed to mention that Russia, the invading country that started the war, is why Ukrainians are fighting and dying. The U.S. is helping Kyiv to confront Moscow with military and economic aid.

Read: VIVEK RAMASWAMY and his ‘Vek Heads’ catch a spark by our own NATALIE ALLISON and LISA KASHINSKY

Keystrokes

MALWARE BE GONE: A piece of advanced malware that Russian intelligence services have used to steal secrets from U.S. and NATO countries for more than 20 years has been disabled by Washington and international authorities, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports.

Russia’s modern-day equivalent of the KGB, the FSB, deployed the Snake malware to steal sensitive information from U.S. and NATO government agencies, defense companies, foreign ministries, media organizations and high-tech research facilities, a senior FBI official told reporters Tuesday.

Overall, the Kremlin spies used the carefully crafted computer program to steal intellectual property and sensitive information from victims in more than 50 countries: “This is what we assess to be the most sophisticated malware deployed by the FSB when it comes to espionage campaigns,” the FBI official said.

The Complex

NEW U.S. AID TO UKRAINE: The White House unveiled a new $1.2 billion aid package on Tuesday, which includes more artillery, ammunition, air defense missiles and drones.

Part of the package funds a program to set up a counter drone testing and evaluation program in Ukraine, a person who advises the Ukrainian government said.

The funding will help the U.S. and its defense industry partners assess what unmanned capabilities work, and what don’t, in combat against a Russian foe with advanced jamming and electronic warfare capabilities.

Similarly, the U.S. is spending money to help network the new U.S. Patriot air defense systems with existing Ukrainian Soviet-era air defenses, as well as the French, German and Italian systems at work in Ukraine.

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– STOPPING IRANIAN BILLS: A new bill would impose sanctions on anyone who aims to boost Iran’s missile program.

The Fight and Combat Rampant Iranian Missile Exports Act, or the Fight CRIME, is backed by HFAC Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and ranking member GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.). The measure, which will be introduced today, could make it harder for Tehran to develop its missile and drones program. It also compels a report on how a lapse in the United Nations’ missile restrictions would impact Iran’s work. Reps. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) and DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) also introduced the bill.

It’s unclear if the bill would make it all the way to Biden’s desk, though there is broad bipartisan support for curbing Iran’s missile advances. But having the top two members of HFAC signed on to the legislation means it’s likely to get out of committee at least.

UKRAINE VISIT: Helsinki Commission Chair JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) and ranking member STEVE COHEN (D-Tenn.) visited Kyiv with Ukrainian-born Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) last week. The delegation met with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY after he returned from the Hague, Reznikov, members of Parliament — and visited Bucha, where they met with relatives of Russian atrocity victims and saw images of mass graves.

Wilson and Cohen, in separate interviews, told our own JOE GOULD they plan to urge the Biden administration to facilitate the donation of materiel Kyiv has sought for months: F-16 jets and long-range munitions, such as the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System.

With the Black Sea Grain Initiative teetering, Zelenskyy told the delegation that Ukrainian pilots could one day secure grain shipments using the F-16s, according to Wilson. (Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA made a similar pitch in the name of global food security on Twitter last week.)

“He hoped to receive F-16s from the United States [or] one of our NATO allies,” Wilson said of Zelenskyy. “It’s for a defense of supply lines and for grain collection and distribution, to be able to protect the extraordinarily significant grain harvest for the people of Africa, Europe and the rest of the world.

“By having air cover, haulers — by ground and sea — would feel comfortable,” Wilson added.

MCCONNELL: AID TO KYIV WILL PERSIST: Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL said funding to Ukraine’s military will continue despite calls from his colleagues to roll back aid, Bloomberg’s STEVEN DENNIS reports. “I do think that we have enough support within Congress to sustain this for a good deal longer,” said the Kentucky Republican. “All the leadership in the House and Senate in my party is very much in favor of defeating the Russians.”

Broadsides

TASTE OF YOUR OWN MEDICINE: Beijing retaliated in a tit-for-tat diplomatic row by expelling a Canadian envoy, following Canada’s decision to eject a Chinese diplomat Monday amid allegations of a plot to coerce a Canadian lawmaker, our own KYLE DUGGAN reports.

Beijing strongly condemned Canada’s move in a statement posted by China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, and said it’s responding with a “reciprocal” one by declaring JENNIFER LALONDE, a diplomat from Canada’s consulate in Shanghai, persona non grata. She has been asked to leave China by Saturday, it said.

The spat comes after Canada declared diplomat ZHAO WEI persona non grata on Monday over his alleged involvement in an attempt to pressure Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG through his extended family living in Hong Kong. Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY said in a statement Monday that Canada has “zero tolerance” for “any form of foreign interference,” and that Canada has warned diplomats in the country that they could be sent packing over such actions.

Transitions

— CATHERINE HEIN is now counsel in Latham & Watkins’ Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States & U.S. national security practice. She previously was acting principal deputy assistant general counsel of enforcement and intelligence at the Treasury Department.

What to Read

— Editorial Board, The Washington Post: Interview with NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG

— LEONID BERSHIDSKY, Bloomberg: Putin’s Victory Day brings evidence of defeat

— ROBERT DRAPER, The New York Times: WILLIAM BURNS, a CIA spymaster with unusual powers

Tomorrow Today

— Defense Strategies Institute, 8 a.m.:2023 Assured Positioning, Navigation and Timing Summit

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Press Briefing: Previewing G7 Leaders’ Summit in Hiroshima

— ICS Village, 9 a.m.: Hack the Capitol 6.0

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 9:45 a.m.: Conflict in Sudan: Options for an Effective Policy Response

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.:Carnegie Connects: Is It Too Late To Save the Planet?

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS

— House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, 10 a.m.: An Overview of the Budget Proposal for the National Institute of Standards and Technology for FY2024

— Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 12 p.m.:Surviving, Thriving and Managing Risks in a Digital World

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: A Contested Domain: From Space Theory to Practice

— House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: Evaluating High-Risk Security Vulnerabilities at our Nation’s Ports

— The Brookings Institution, 2:30 p.m.: The U.S. Coast Guard in an increasingly complex world: A conversation with Admiral LINDA FAGAN, 27th commandant of the USCG

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never gives us the weapons we ask for.

We also thank our producer, Sinobia Aiden, who is a weapon at all ranges.