Playbook: No one’s blinking on the debt limit anytime soon

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

PLEADING THE 25TH — “Is It Time for a Constitutional Amendment to Oust Incapacitated Senators?” by Joanne Kenen for POLITICO Magazine: “Questions about DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s future underscore the limited options available for easing out aging senators.”

— ICYMI: “Feinstein ‘hopeful’ she can return to Senate next week, Schumer notes say,” by Katherine Tully-McManus and Nicholas Wu … “AOC says Feinstein’s refusal to retire is ‘causing great harm’ to US courts,” by the Guardian’s Martin Pengelly … Rep. AYANNA PRESSLEY (D-Mass.) also expressed support for Feinstein’s resignation, per GBH News’ Saraya Wintersmith.

NOT-SO REALITY TV — “‘My job is not nearly as sexy’: The hits and misses of Netflix’s ‘The Diplomat,’” by Nahal Toosi and Rosa Prince: “State Department employees around the world have been bingeing ‘The Diplomat,’ a new Netflix show starring KERI RUSSELL. And many of them find it preposterous — and utterly amusing.”

DEBT LIMIT REALITY CHECK — With the nation set to default on its payments as soon as June 1, President JOE BIDEN and congressional leaders are set to meet next week in hopes of finding a way to hike the debt ceiling and avoid economic ruin. But as key leaders took stock of the newly accelerated deadline yesterday, expectations for the Oval Office confab rapidly diminished.

Expect the staring contest, in fact, to continue well into May — testing the nerves of political leaders, Wall Street investors and everyday Americans alike.

A fundamental clash of perspectives is driving the impasse. For Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and fellow House Republicans, the ball is in Biden and Democrats’ court after uniting around a GOP debt ceiling proposal last week. It’s on them, in their view, to come down off their clean-hike demands and negotiate.

“The Senate and the President need to get to work — and soon,” McCarthy said Monday.

But Democrats are still convinced they have the upper hand, believing that it’s McCarthy who has to come off his position. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER yesterday insisted that Republicans had to start bargaining down from the House-passed proposal, which trades a yearlong debt limit hike with deep spending cuts and the reversal of key Biden initiatives.

“This is not a plan,” the New York Democrat said when asked about the House proposal. “This is a hard-right-wing wish list that everyone knows has no chance of passing.”

Against that backdrop, various players are testing potential off-ramps — each of them problematic:

— In the House, Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES revealed yesterday that a quietly filed shell bill could in theory be used to try to make an end-run around McCarthy. As reported by NYT’s Carl Hulse, Democrats started the process to launch a discharge petition targeting that “Swiss Army knife” measure, which could be amended with a debt patch.

  • The problem: There aren’t the votes to discharge anything, with a number of moderate GOP lawmakers already panning the idea as Democratic leaders refuse to negotiate. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), for one, told CNN’s Manu Raju he had zero “appetite for a ‘my way or the highway’ stance.” Furthermore, Hulse notes, even in a best-case scenario, “the measure could take until June 12 or 13 to clear Congress,” according to a U.S. Chamber of Commerce analysis.

— At the White House, NYT’s Jim Tankersley reports that aides continue to explore whether the administration can unilaterally continue paying the nation’s bills even if Congress refuses to act. The idea, once deemed unthinkable even by Democratic administrations, would mean invoking a provision of the 14th Amendment, which says that “the validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned.”

  • The problem: Any attempt to circumvent Congress would be subject to swift legal challenge, leaving the question ultimately in the hands of a conservative Supreme Court, and it would invite potentially ferocious political blowback for the Biden administration. Meanwhile, any attempt to skirt the debt ceiling would invite chaos in the financial markets. Even in the best-case scenario, Tankersley notes, it’s “likely to cause a surge in short-term borrowing costs because investors would demand a premium to buy debt that could be invalidated by a court.”

— In the Senate, Republicans are looking to two familiar faces — Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) — to break down the partisan logjam. As our colleague Burgess Everett writes this morning, the GOP’s thinking is that the two moderates could force Democrats to the negotiating table, allowing one of the chamber’s familiar “gangs” to swoop in and cut a deal. Manchin recently popped by McCarthy’s office, while Sinema “has quietly dined with McCarthy and signaled her hopes for a negotiated solution to GOP senators,” Burgess reports.

  • The problem: The Senate leadership, let alone its rank-and-file, are on the sidelines — at least for now — as Republicans seek to empower McCarthy. (As Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL put it bluntly yesterday, “There is no solution in the Senate.”) There’s also no guarantee that the type of deals Manchinema forged in the last Congress could pass muster in a more conservative House.

— And on both sides of the Capitol, lawmakers are openly floating the idea of punting the issue for anywhere between a few weeks and a few months. Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) told PBS’s Lisa Desjardins that he’d be open to a 30-day extension if the White House is in bona fide negotiations. Meanwhile, Rep. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-Pa.), the top House Budget Committee Democrat, told Bloomberg TV that he’d be open to linking the debt deadline with the Sept. 30 appropriations deadline. “It would allow a little more breathing room,” he said.

  • The problem: Schumer rejected a stopgap yesterday, and it’s unclear if Republicans would accept even a brief extension without some sort of concession from Democrats. Furthermore, even a small debt limit increase or suspension has historically allowed the Treasury Department to replenish its “extraordinary measures” capacity, making it all but impossible to pinpoint a new deadline.

Given that menu of flawed alternatives, genuine bipartisan negotiations could start looking pretty appealing by the end of the month. But the big unanswered question of the moment is: What will end the staring contest?

Will it be pressure from the business community or a financial market freakout? Will frontline Republican or Democratic lawmakers start to get nervous and band together to force action?

Or, like STEPH CURRY dropping 50 in Game 7, will some veteran player swoop in to save the day?

Could McConnell reprise the role he played more than a decade ago, cutting a deal with Biden to avoid default? What about Rep. PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.), the House Financial Services Committee chair who we hear is watching the back and forth closely? Or maybe the leaders of the Problem Solvers Caucus, whose proposal to set up an outside fiscal commission has attracted support from dozens of centrist Republicans?

Right now, we only know this: We’re still a ways away from any savior showing up.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. How do you see this all ending? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

CRAB CAKES, FOOTBALL AND UNINTERESTED GOP RECRUITS — Former Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN told NewsNation’s Leland Vittert last night that he’s skipping a chance to succeed Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), all but extinguishing Republican hopes for a competitive race: “I’m getting called by senators, and donors, and I’m getting lots of inquiries from the media, but the thing that surprised me the most was that my wife said, ‘Why don’t you run for the Senate?’” Hogan said. “I told her she was crazy.”

Also passing: Orioles legend CAL RIPKEN JR., who told Fox he has “no interest in getting into politics or running for political office.”

INSIDE TUCKER’S TEXTS — NYT’s Jeremy Peters, Michael Schmidt and Jim Rutenberg report on explosive text messages written by TUCKER CARLSON that were part of the lawsuit between Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems and added to growing concerns inside the building that Carlson was too toxic to carry and in part led the company to settle the case. The texts show Carlson “sharing his private, inflammatory views about violence and race” and “set off a panic at the highest levels of Fox on the eve of its billion-dollar defamation trial,” the Times trio writes.

The shocking details: “In the message, sent to one of his producers in the hours after violent Trump supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Mr. Carlson described how he had recently watched a video of a group of men — Trump supporters, he said — violently attacking ‘an Antifa kid.’

“It was ‘three against one, at least,’ he wrote. And then he expressed a sense of dismay that the attackers, like him, were white. ‘Jumping a guy like that is dishonorable obviously,’ he wrote. ‘It’s not how white men fight,’ he said. But he said he found himself for a moment wanting the group to kill the person he had described as the Antifa kid.”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

THE REELECT ROLLOUT — “Biden, Harris planning 1st 2024 fundraisers as soon as next week,” by Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt: “Some of the events being planned for Biden include a reception and dinner that could take place in New York City on May 10, the people said. … Harris, meanwhile, is being scheduled for what will likely be her own first fundraising event for the campaign on May 12 in the key swing state of Georgia.”

DON VS. RON — “‘The DeSantis people are rookies’: Even Trump critics say he’s running circles around DeSantis,” by Sally Goldenberg and Meridith McGraw: “It’s a campaign operation characterized by an unusual level of organization and discipline — one that’s chipping away at his likely chief rival before he even jumps in the race.”

THE DEBATE DEBATE — Trump is considering skipping the first one or two Republican presidential primary debates, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan scoop. “In private comments to aides and confidants in recent weeks, Mr. Trump has made it clear that he does not want to breathe life into his Republican challengers by sharing the stage with them,” they write.

Another choice detail: “Trump has told advisers that the second debate is a nonstarter for him because it will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. The chairman of the library’s board of trustees, FREDERICK J. RYAN JR., also serves as the publisher and chief executive officer of The Washington Post, a fact that Mr. Trump regularly brings up.”

Related read: “Republicans aim to disrupt general election debates amid Trump complaints,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey: “Top Republicans summoned the bureau chiefs of the five major television networks to the party’s Capitol Hill headquarters this spring for a secret meeting aimed at breaking the country’s 35-year-old system for presidential debates.”

THE COMEBACK CONTINUES — CNN announced Monday that it will host a primetime town hall with Trump at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire next Wednesday with Kaitlan Collins moderating, marking the former president’s first appearance on the network since the 2016 campaign. More from CNN

The counterpoint: “There remains little value in broadcasting Trump’s comments live,” by WaPo’s Philip Bump

MORE POLITICS

BY THE NUMBERS — “Black turnout dropped sharply in 2022 midterms, Census survey finds,” by WaPo’s Scott Clement and Lenny Bronner

LOOK WHO’S BACK — “Former Nevada assemblyman, election denier Jim Marchant plans U.S. Senate run,” by the Nevada Independent’s Naoka Foreman and Gabby Birenbaum

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “The AI political campaign is here,” by CNN’s Donie O’Sullivan and Yahya Abou-Ghazala

THE WHITE HOUSE

DUCKLO AND COVER — As former Biden hand TJ DUCKLO prepares to return to the fold in a new role on the reelection campaign, some of his former colleagues are standing behind the previously ousted aide, while others are torching him with rare fiery quotes on the record. “It’s hard to believe that in the post-#MeToo, anti-bullying world we live in, that the president’s team would be this tone-deaf,” former first lady press secretary MICHAEL LaROSA told our colleagues Lauren Egan and Eli Stokols. (Ducklo declined to comment.) Read more in West Wing Playbook and subscribe

AT 1600 PENN — “Muslim New Jersey mayor denied entry to White House calls for Biden end to ‘discriminatory’ practices,” by Daniel Han

CONGRESS

COMING ATTRACTIONS — The Senate Banking Committee will bring in the former CEOs of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank for a hearing on May 16, the panel announced yesterday. More from AP

KNOWING HILLARY SCHOLTEN — “Rep. Hillary Scholten wants Democrats to reclaim faith, freedom and ‘compassionate conservatism,’” by The 19th News’ Grace Panetta

KNOWING JAMAAL BOWMAN — “From TikTok to ‘90s rap, Jamaal Bowman is learning to raise his voice in Congress,” by NBC’s Scott Wong

TRUMP CARDS

AT THE TRUMP TRIAL — “Trump won’t take the stand in lawsuit accusing him of rape,” by Erica Orden in New York: “The jury, however, will hear from Trump, albeit not live or in person. An attorney for Carroll said she expects to play about 45 minutes of a videotaped deposition of Trump for jurors.”

THE ‘ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE’ IS MY FRIEND — “Trump joins media coalition in opposing DA’s proposal to limit public use of evidence in hush money case,” by NBC’s Zoë Richards

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

LEAK LATEST — “Zelensky says White House told him nothing about Discord intelligence leaks,” by WaPo’s Isabelle Khurshudyan in Kyiv, Ukraine: “Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY has not had any conversations with the White House about a massive leak of top-secret U.S. intelligence documents, he said in a wide-ranging interview with The Washington Post on Monday, calling the disclosures damaging to both Washington and Kyiv. Zelensky learned about the disclosures like everybody else — in the news.”

SPM’S LANDING PAD — “Biden to send Sean Patrick Maloney to Paris as OECD ambassador,” by Axios’ Hans Nichols: “Officials ultimately decided that his experience in the private sector and on the House Intelligence Committee made him a good fit for an important multilateral ambassadorship. But they needed an open slot. The Paris posting will be made available by the departure of the current ambassador, former Delaware Gov. JACK MARKELL, who will be nominated to be ambassador to Italy.”

THE ECONOMY

BANK ON IT — “Why Washington Let JPMorgan Buy First Republic,” by WSJ’s Ben Eisen and Andrew Ackerman: “Officials have sought to put new limits on bank mergers to prevent large banks from getting even bigger. But with the First Republic sale, they set those concerns aside, a recognition that the largest lenders possess unmatched firepower to step in during times of financial stress.”

BUILD BACK LESSER — “After Pandemic Rebound, U.S. Manufacturing Droops,” by NYT’s Lydia DePillis

HAPPENING TODAY — “What to Watch at the Fed’s May Meeting,” by NYT’s Jeanna Smialek: “Federal Reserve officials are set to release an interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon ... Officials will not release fresh economic projections after this meeting, which will leave economists carefully parsing both the central bank’s 2 p.m. policy decision statement and a 2:30 p.m. news conference with JEROME H. POWELL, the Fed chair, for hints at what comes next.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

GUNS IN AMERICA — “Frequent shootings put U.S. mass killings on a record pace,” by AP’s Stefanie Dazio, Larry Fenn and Colleen Slevin: “Mass killings are happening with staggering frequency this year: an average of about one a week, according to an analysis of The AP/USA Today data. The 2023 numbers stand out even more when they are compared with the tally for full-year totals since data was collected. The U.S. recorded 30 or fewer mass killings in more than half of the years in the database, so to be at 19 a third of the way through is remarkable.”

ZEPHYR SPEAKS — “Rep. Zooey Zephyr: My Censure Was an Attack on Democracy,” by Time’s Sanya Mansoor

Related read: “Zephyr’s request to access House floor denied; end of session looms,” by the Billings Gazette’s Holly Michels and Sam Wilson

THE WFH CONUNDRUM — “Public transit banked on office workers and now they’re paying for it,” by Danielle Muoio Dunn and Ry Rivard: “Most of the nation’s most-trafficked public transit systems are still seeing less than 80 percent of their pre-pandemic ridership.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Doug Emhoff and Kamala Harris are a house divided for the Lakers-Warriors series. (Emhoff’s Lakers took a 1-0 lead late last night.)

Chuck Schumer has a lot of street cred with Gen Z now.

SPOTTED at the Raben Group’s launch event for its new Faith Strategies Group at the Washington City Church of the Brethren yesterday: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Derrick Harkins, Robert Jones and Nikki Toyama-Szeto. Pic

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Mari Manoogian is the new political director for The Next 50. She previously was a state representative in Michigan, served on state Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s political team and was a senior adviser at New Blue Interactive.

— Swing Left is bringing on a handful of new staffers: LeJamiel “Lee” Goodall will be managing director and previously was senior adviser to the GSA Deputy Administrator Katy Kale. Dan Kalik will be head of politics and strategy and previously was senior political adviser at MoveOn. Jade Tacka will be head of development and previously was senior finance adviser for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Michelle Alwardt will be operations lead and previously was managing director at Scale for Change.

— Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group is bringing on former Egyptian diplomats Waguih Hanafi, Karim Haggag and Mohamed Hanafi as senior advisers as it launches a new strategic partnership with Cairo-based LYNX Strategic Business Advisors.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Josh Black is now senior director for multilateral affairs on the NSC staff at the White House. He was previously senior adviser to U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Dan Cluchey and Sarah Gouda have left the White House to join Fenway as principals. Cluchey most recently was senior presidential speechwriter to President Joe Biden. Gouda most recently was deputy director of speechwriting for VP Kamala Harris.

TRANSITIONS — Jay Rhoden is now comms director for Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.). He previously was digital press secretary for Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.). … Reed Powell is now a legislative assistant for Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.). He most recently was a professional staff member for the House Communications Standards Commission and is a Jody Hice and Stephanie Bice campaign alum.

… Lavin Gartland is now chief of staff at GOPAC. She previously was president and CEO of Lavin Gartland LLC. … Darcy Hirsh is joining Interfaith Alliance as senior director of policy and advocacy. She previously was associate VP for public affairs and government relations at The Jewish Federations of North America.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Katherine Haddad, senior director of government affairs at Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and Raaed Haddad, director of federal government affairs at the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America, welcomed John Awwad Haddad on April 12. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) (8-0) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) … NBC/MSNBC’s Willie Geist … Caroline Critchfield Hunter of Stand Together … Ben Ginsberg … Scott Kamins of Kamins Consulting … former Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) … POLITICO’s Matt Friedman, Anna Stubbs and David Nicks … Chip Rogers of the American Hotel and Lodging Association … Alex Loehr … SKDK’s Stephen Krupin ... Greg Clugston ... Linda Kenyon … Vic Goetz of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) office … NBC’s Stephen Labaton … Claudia Russo … Chris Bodenner … ACT | The App Association’s Chelsea Thomas … Ella Yates … Julia Convertini … Lindsey Kolb … Caitlin Peruccio … Sam Azzarelli of Firehouse Strategies … Tim Mulvey … Paul Kangas … Democratic strategist Max Burns (36) … Seth Flaxman of Democracy Works … Jason Killian Meath … former national climate adviser Gina McCarthy … Solvay’s Michael Blume … Charter’s Catherine Bohigian … Avi Weinryb … West End Strategy Team’s Carolyn Davis and Eleanor Donohue (24)

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