No Sweden in NATO until after election, senators say

With help from Lara Seligman and Erin Banco

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Senators are increasingly convinced that Turkey won’t let Sweden into NATO until after general elections in May.

The issue has once again come to the fore with Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in Sweden — the first Pentagon chief to visit the country in more than 20 years — to reiterate the Biden administration’s support for its accession to the alliance. Austin said he expects Sweden will be in NATO ahead of the alliance’s next summit in mid-July.

Our own LARA SELIGMAN, who is traveling with Austin, writes in that he sailed in Sweden’s new Visby-class corvette and watched from the deck as Swedish naval ships demonstrated around him. Two combat boats filled with marines conducted a mock amphibious landing, while a submarine surfaced from the waves and fighter jets and Black Hawk helicopters flew overhead.

The message was unmistakable: Sweden is ready, and America thinks so, too. “It was an honor to see them in action. I look forward to calling Sweden a fellow NATO ally,” Austin tweeted Wednesday afternoon.

But Turkey remains defiant, even though it approved Finland’s membership in late March. One of the reasons President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN gives is that Sweden is too cozy with the Kurds, which he deems to be terrorists fighting against the country he leads. The sincerity of that grievance aside, it’s clear that Erdoğan making a fuss about this plays to his base in an election that is too close for the strongman’s comfort.

Because of that, senators in interviews with NatSec Daily seem confident Erdoğan won’t change his mind before the votes are cast on May 14, putting them in general agreement with Austin. After the election, whether Erdoğan or his challenger is in power, Sweden’s chances of NATO membership skyrocket.

“I think we’re going to see movement very quickly after May 14th, however that [election] comes out,” said Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“I have a feeling it will all happen, but it won’t happen until after the election,” agreed Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), the panel’s chair. He added that a victorious Erdoğan could be convinced that holding up Sweden’s formal entry into the alliance could ultimately benefit Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN.

The greatest skepticism we heard — read: not that skeptical — was from Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), who said he was “cautiously optimistic” Turkey would give the green light, but “time will tell.”

Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), also a SFRC member, reiterated his stance that Turkey shouldn’t get its requested 40 F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. until Sweden is in NATO.

“There may be other things that are going to be important for Turkey to do as well, from my perspective, but the least common denominator here has to be support for Sweden’s entry into NATO,” he said.

But the prospects for Turkey receiving the F-16s soon remains slim, even if Sweden becomes NATO’s 32nd member.

Menendez has repeatedly vowed to block the $20 billion sale despite backing a much-smaller modernization contract for Turkey, repeating a laundry list of changes Ankara must make to its foreign policy.

“They need to end their belligerence against their fellow NATO members [to include] the Hellenic Republic,” he said, using the official name for Greece. “They need to stop overflights, they have to permit the ecumenical patriarch to exercise his rights as the religious leader of millions of people around the world. Those are some of the things.”

The Inbox

STRUGGLE FOR SUDAN: When one ceasefire fails, call another. That’s what happened on the fifth day of fighting between the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group and the Sudanese Army.

Each side accused the other of violating Tuesday’s ceasefire. The RSF called for another on Wednesday that Sudanese forces accepted for humanitarian reasons, the New York Times’ DECLAN WALSH and VICTORIA KIM report. If it holds, the ceasefire will run from 6 p.m. local time on Wednesday and last into Thursday evening.

Airstrikes pounded the international airport in Khartoum Wednesday morning, as paramilitary fighters on the ground shot at jets. One major difference between the warring sides: “The army has airpower, and the RSF does not,” Walsh points out.

So far, some 300 people have been killed and over 3,000 wounded since fighting broke out on Saturday, according to the World Health Organization, but observers believe those numbers to be much higher.

The U.S. Embassy in Sudan, alongside allied missions, released a statement Wednesday urging both parties “to end hostilities immediately and without pre-condition.”

NEW AID FOR UKRAINE: The Biden administration announced a $325 million military assistance package for Ukraine, which Lara reported before the reveal.

“This security assistance package includes more ammunition for U.S.-provided HIMARS and artillery rounds, as well as anti-armor systems, small arms, logistics support vehicles, and maintenance support essential to strengthening Ukraine’s defenders on the battlefield,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said in a statement.

This aid could help Kyiv stockpile weapons in preparation for a widely anticipated spring offensive.

READY FOR TAKE OFF: North Korean leader KIM JONG UN said his country’s first spy satellite is ready for launch, hailing it as a major technological advance to keep tabs on the U.S. and its allies, the Wall Street Journal’s DASL YOON reports.

The satellite’s imminent launch is in direct response to South Korea and the United States’ joint military drills in recent months, which Kim has likened to a rehearsal for invasion of his nation. As a result, it’s important for Pyongyang to monitor adversaries in real time, Kim said.

Also: On Monday, Gen. PAUL LaCAMERA, commander of U.S. forces in Korea, told the House Armed Services Committee that North Korea’s Hwasong-18 missile was powered by solid fuel — seemingly the first U.S. confirmation of Pyongyang’s claim.

Next door, South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL said his country may consider new ways to support Ukraine in the case of a large-scale attack on civilians, which could include arming Kyiv for the first time.

“If there is a situation the international community cannot condone, … it might be difficult for us to insist only on humanitarian or financial support,” Yoon told Reuters’ SOYOUNG KIM, JU-MIN PARK and HYONHEE SHIN, likening the scenario to how South Korea received international assistance during the Korean War.

DOCS KEEP COMIN’: North Korea isn’t alone in the surveillance push, apparently. China’s military could soon unveil a spy drone that travels at least three times faster than the speed of sound, per new leaked Pentagon documents.

The high-altitude hypersonic drone would greatly strengthen Beijing’s ability to conduct surveillance operations, the Washington Post reported Tuesday night. China is also making technological advances that could target American military bases in the region and warships near Taiwan, according to a military assessment.

But wait! There’s more: Russia has experimented for months with electronic warfare in an attempt to disrupt Starlink, ELON MUSK’s satellite system that has proven crucial to Ukraine’s military, the Post’s ALEX HORTON reported. While the docs didn’t detail whether the efforts were successful or not, they reveal that Moscow has used a system, designed to protect its own satellites, to attack other ones.

While the leak continues, the Air Force has taken away the intelligence mission from the Massachusetts Air National Guard unit where JACK TEIXEIRA allegedly obtained the classified material, the Associated Press’ TARA COPP reported.

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2024

PENCE ON CHINA: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE will use a speech Wednesday at the Nixon National Energy Conference to call out China’s growing influence, including sounding the alarm about Beijing’s threats toward Taiwan.

“Appeasement has never worked a single time in human history, and it will not work now,” Pence will say, per an excerpt. “America and her allies cannot not allow either China or Russia to trample the liberty of our friends — we must ensure that our leaders send an unambiguous message that such aggression will never be tolerated.”

Pence has yet to formally enter the field of growing GOP presidential candidates, but has used foreign policy and national security as ways to further highlight the contrast between him and his former boss.

RFK IS IN: ROBERT KENNEDY JR. has thrown his hat in the ring for the Democratic nomination for president, challenging President JOE BIDEN’s almost certain reelection bid. His foreign policy views aren’t widely known, though he is an avid environmentalist and peace advocate.

He is also a vaccine skeptic, promoting debunked claims that vaccines cause autism, as well as founding Children’s Health Defense, an activist group that spreads Covid-19 vaccine misinformation.

He’s not alone in the hunt for the Dem nom: self-help personality MARIANNE WILLIAMSON threw her hat in the ring earlier this year.

Keystrokes

CYBER ONSLAUGHT: A pro-Russian hacking group attempted to attack the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a European energy company that operates one of the largest oil pipelines in the world, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!).

A Google report released Wednesday showed that Sandworm, the group responsible for the attacks, has also focused heavily on collecting intelligence about the war and leaking stolen data on platforms like Telegram. The group, which Google refers to as FROZENBARENTS, has also launched credential theft efforts against Ukrainian defense officials.

The findings come as Russian hackers have continued launching cyberattacks against Ukraine since last year’s invasion, including growing threats against U.S. critical infrastructure.

SIR, PLEASE COME WITH ME: BRIAN SULC, the executive director of the Transnational Organized Crime Mission Center at DHS’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis, was escorted from his office Monday after bringing in a personal electronic device to a secure office, a person familiar with the matter told our own ERIN BANCO.

He is under investigation, that person said, who requested anonymity to speak about an ongoing probe. Rolling Stone was the first to report the news.

Sulc reports to the head of DHS I&A KEN WAINSTEIN and is responsible for tracking cross-border threats, including how drugs like fentanyl are making their way into the United States.

The Complex

PATRIOTS IN UKRAINE: Two Patriot missile defense systems, one from the United States, the other jointly gifted by Germany and the Netherlands, arrived in Ukraine on Wednesday, Matt reports.

Patriots, a sophisticated system designed to shoot down airplanes and missiles, have long been at the top of Kyiv’s wish list as Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy grid and infrastructure with airstrikes.

“Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine,” Ukrainian defense minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV wrote in a tweet.

MILITARY UPGRADE: The German army will refurbish 143 Puma infantry fighting vehicles, according to a statement from the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, which said it and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann were tasked with retrofitting the vehicles as part of a joint venture, the Financial Times’ PATRICIA NILSSON and LAURA PITEL report.

Refurbished Pumas will be fitted with high-resolution camera systems and advanced missile systems among features, at a cost of more than $800 million.

The deal comes after 18 vehicles malfunctioned during a drill in December, marking a setback for a country that has vowed to bolster their military in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ already made an unprecedented €100 billion available for defense spending in 2022.

On the Hill

NO ‘OPERATIONAL CONTROL’: House Republicans bashed Secretary of Homeland Security ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS for the southern border crisis, blaming him for “intentionally” allowing the situation to worsen under his leadership, Matt reports.

“You have not secured our borders, Mr. Secretary, and I believe you’ve done so intentionally,” Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.), chair of the Homeland Security committee, said in his opening remarks during a budget hearing on Wednesday.

At the center of much of the debate was Mayorkas’ previous comments to Congress that the border is secure. Republicans have charged that he lied under oath when he told Congress that, though Mayorkas said he interprets “operational control” in a different way.

“Republicans are criticizing you for not achieving something that no secretary has ever achieved. It seems like their standard changes dependent on the administration,” ranking member BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) said.

SSCI WANTS LEAKED DOCS INFO: The top two members of the Senate Intelligence Committee have asked for information how widespread the leak of classified information is and any potential damages to national security.

Among the information Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and ranking member MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) want from Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES and SecDef Austin, per their Wednesday letter to them:

  • A detailed list and summary of the classified documents determined to have been removed from secure facilities.
  • A full accounting of any classified information — to include classified documents responsive to the above request — transmitted on the Discord server or any other unclassified online platform.
  • Copies of all classified documents or other classified information displayed on the Discord server.
  • A description of all steps taken to date by each affected intelligence agency, Department of Defense entity, or military service to assess and mitigate the damage of the unauthorized disclosures and to prevent further disclosures.

Transitions

— ANDREW MOORE has been named U.S. Central Command’s first adviser on AI, robotics and cloud computing. He previously was director of Google Cloud AI and dean of the Carnegie Mellon University School of Computer Science.

What to Read

— CAMILLE GRAND, European Council on Foreign Relations: A question of strategic credibility: How Europeans can fix the ammunition problem in Ukraine

— KAREN GREENBERG, The Nation: Ukraine Is Another Chapter in the Forever War

— MORGAN ORTAGUS, Washington Examiner: Via Airbus deals, Macron provides China new means of war against US

Tomorrow Today

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis Continued? Assessing China’s April 2023 Military Exercises Against Taiwan

— The Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The Posture of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and U.S Forces Korea in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: The China Policy GEORGE BUSH Passed to BARACK OBAMA

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Nearly Nuclear: How Small States Compel Concessions from Big States

— The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: Detainees and Forcibly Disappeared Persons in Syria: Paths to Truth and Accountability

— The Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: Avoiding the Brink: Escalation Management in a War to Defend Taiwan

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: The War in Ukraine and the Future of Europe: A View from Capitol Hill with Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.)

— The Atlantic Council, 1:45 p.m.: Breaking things: Melding cyber and kinetic in conflict

— New America, 1:45 p.m.: Ukraine and the Future of NATO

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Does the U.S. Need a Cyber Force?

— The East-West Center, 4 p.m.: Launch of “Korea Matters for America/America Matters for Korea”

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we know won’t acknowledge our existence until after the Turkish elections.

We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who Turkey would welcome into any alliance.