Now’s not the time for peace talks, top Zelenskyy aide says

With help from Nahal Toosi

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Ukraine won’t engage in peace talks until Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN shows he’s serious about meeting Kyiv’s demands and ending the war he started, a top Ukrainian official tells NatSec Daily.

“There’s no way to have conversations with them; you can’t talk with terrorists,” said OLEKSIY DANILOV, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, citing Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure during a brutal winter. The war will not end, he continued, until the Ukrainian forces “turn everything back — all the territories.”

In recent weeks, U.S. and Ukrainian officials have discussed the potential for peace negotiations. Late last month, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA suggested that Kyiv is open to U.N.-brokered discussions by February. However, he said his country would participate in that process only if Russia faced a war crimes tribunal for its attacks on civilians.

Kyiv, for now, will not accept any deal that leaves Ukrainian land in Russia’s hands.

“Everything will be linked once again, including Crimea,” Danilov said. “Not one meter will be left for the taking of the enemy. If any of our partners suggest that we should leave something behind or give it away, the Ukrainian people for sure will never accept that.”

Fighting rages in the meantime. Ukrainian troops are trying to advance on the battlefield despite complications from the winter weather. But their success so far — including their ability to retake annexed territory — will require significant additional support from the West, Danilov said.

The U.S. is looking to provide Ukraine with “sustainable” assistance, top Biden administration officials say, striking a balance between what Kyiv’s forces can use and what the U.S. can replace in its arsenal. The distance between what Ukraine wants and what the U.S. and its allies are willing to give has led to simmering tensions, though a working relationship persists.

Danilov told NatSec Daily that the Ukrainians have no intention of slowing down and that they will continue pressing the frontline “until Moscow is [finished].”

“Russia will not break us no matter what they do,” he said. “The Russian Federation is attacking our infrastructure that people depend on, places where children grow up and live. And if you think you can have a conversation with Putin or reason with him, then I don’t understand — what world are we living in? [Russia] must be isolated.”

The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — THE RISKY BUSINESS OF U.S. DIPLOMACY: Many State Department employees are unsure how much risk they can take and whether they can fail without undermining their careers, according to recent survey results.

The findings were laid out in a Dec. 20 email to State Department staffers from BRIAN McKEON, who recently ended his tenure as deputy secretary of State for management and resources. The survey was conducted as part of Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s effort to modernize the department.

McKeon’s note, obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI, framed the results this way: “Nearly 75 percent of respondents said they did not receive clear communication from their leadership on risk tolerance; over 50 percent said they rarely or never participated in formal risk assessment activities; and over one-third did not feel empowered or equipped to manage risk. Moreover, a significant number of respondents associated risk with threat and related concepts like risk aversion, fear of failure, career, and security.”

“The bottom line is clear,” McKeon wrote. “If we are to succeed in advancing U.S. priorities, the department’s perception of risk must evolve. We need to be risk aware, not risk averse. We must accept the possibility of failure when taking risks, and risks must be viewed as opportunities for mission success, not just as threats.”

McKeon hinted at upcoming initiatives to “foster a culture of ‘failing well.’” Already, he pointed out, the department is trying to make it easier to open diplomatic facilities, which is never simple given security concerns.

A State Department spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss an internal matter, said in a statement that Blinken wants to “shift the culture of the department to lead in the face of, rather than avoid, risk.” The spokesperson added: “The department defines risk as anything that has the potential to negatively (threats) or positively (opportunities) impact the Department’s capability to achieve its objectives.”

DON’T COME NEAR US: South Korean President YOON SUK-YEOL said he would consider suspending the military pact with North Korea if they violate his nation’s airspace again, the Japan Times’ HYONHEE SHIN reports.

Yoon’s comments came after he was briefed on possible countermeasures to North Korea’s recent drone activity. In late December, South Korea accused its northern adversary of flying drones into its airspace for the first time in years, violating a 2018 deal between the two countries that called for stopping “all hostile acts,” enacting a no-fly zone around the border, and removing landmines and guard posts within the Demilitarized Zone.

If Yoon abandons the pact, Pyongyang will use that as a pretext to ramp up tensions, SCOTT SNYDER, a senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, told NatSec Daily. And if he doesn’t, North Korea will continue to escalate the situation and violate the pact.

Either way, Yoon’s actions “will have no discernible impact on the dynamics other than to provide North Korea with an external justification to do what it has already decided to do,” Snyder said.

JAPAN’S PM COMING TO THE U.S.: President JOE BIDEN will host Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA at the White House on Jan. 13. The pair will discuss North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, economic issues, Russia’s war in Ukraine, climate change and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

U.S. EMBASSY IN CUBA UP AND RUNNING: The U.S. Embassy in Cuba reopened visa and consular services Wednesday for the first time in five years, the Associated Press’ MEGAN JANETSKY reports.

It will begin processing immigrant visas, prioritizing permits that reunite those with families in the U.S. and those in the diversity visa lottery. In 2017, the service was paused after unexplained health incidents — colloquially known as Havana Syndrome — affected diplomats in the country, leading to a lower American presence there.

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Flashpoints

IRAN DRONE HAS U.S. PARTS: “Parts made by more than a dozen US and Western companies were found inside a single Iranian drone downed in Ukraine last fall, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment,” CNN’s NATASHA BERTRAND reports. “Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment. The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.”

The news illustrates the difficulties the U.S. has in depriving Iran of critical components for military purposes.

“We are looking at ways to target Iranian UAV production through sanctions, export controls, and talking to private companies whose parts have been used in the production. We are assessing further steps we can take in terms of export controls to restrict Iran’s access to technologies used in drones,” National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON told CNN.

LATEST HYPERSONIC WEAPON: Russia deployed a frigate armed with a hypersonic cruise missile to the Atlantic on Wednesday, Reuters reports.

In a video ceremony, Putin was joined by Russian defense minister SERGEI SHOIGU to unveil what they claim is the country’s latest hypersonic weapon, named “Zircon.” They said the weapon could strike targets precisely from more than 600 miles away and evade missile defense systems.

The announcement comes amid an accelerated hypersonic race between Russia, China and the U.S., with the three countries working to develop weapons that are difficult to intercept.

While U.S. hypersonic missile development has experienced hiccups in recent years, the Air Force conducted its first successful air-launched hypersonic missile test in December.

Keystrokes

L3HARRIS BUYS VIASAT ASSETS: L3Harris purchased $2 billion in Viasat’s tactical data link business, C4ISRNet’s COLIN DEMAREST reports, a move the company hopes will make it a stronger bidder for the Pentagon’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control contracts.

“The buy consists of Link 16 Multifunctional Information Distribution System platforms, their associated terminals, which are installed in tens of thousands of U.S. and allied systems worldwide, and space assets. After taxes and other fees, Viasat will net some $1.8 billion for a business that generated $400 million in sales annually,” per Demarest.

“Link 16 is a secure, jam-resistant and high-speed line of communication used across domains and by international players, including NATO,” he wrote.

Viasat plans to use its windfall to finance other projects.

The Complex

KILLER ROBOTS, REPORTING FOR DUTY: A focus on fully autonomous killer drones is the “logical and inevitable next step” in weapons development as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, a top Ukrainian official told the Associated Press’ FRANK BAJAK and HANNA ARHIROVA.

MYKHAILO FEDOROV, Ukraine’s digital transformation minister, said the nation has been spending R&D money in the area and said the “potential for this is great in the next six months.” Fully autonomous drones, in theory, would be able to identify, select and attack targets without help from a human operator.

Ukraine already employs artificial intelligence in counter-drone weapons and uses semi-autonomous attack drones. Russia has made unsubstantiated claims of possessing similar AI technology. However, there’s no confirmation of any country using robots that can kill entirely on their own on the battlefield yet.

HALTING DELIVERIES: Deliveries for new F-35 engines were suspended by the U.S. military on Dec. 27 following a December crash on a Texas runway in which a pilot was ejected, Defense News’ STEPHEN LOSEY reports.

The military described the move as a mutual decision with contractor Pratt & Whitney as ground tests seek to discover the cause of the accident.

The announcement marks the latest issue with the costly fighter that’s suffered setbacks and errors that have caused repeated tests and inspections to ensure the jet’s safety and effectiveness.

On the Hill

LEADERSHIP LIMBO: After failing five separate times to secure enough Republican votes to clinch the speakership, KEVIN McCARTHY‘s defeats have left an unprecedented power vacuum in the House.

Despite the House Republicans’ inability to choose its leader, the drama isn’t expected to affect the chamber’s ability to make progress on some of its natsec priorities — at least not yet, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

With the NDAA and appropriations debates expected to begin months from now, there likely won’t be any roadblocks to the legislative process if Republicans can elect a speaker before the end of the month, allowing committees to begin organizing.

“My committee is different,” expected House Armed Services Chair Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) said. “We generally have to wait for the president’s budget to get to a lot of this work we do anyway.”

However, the internal gridlock might slow the creation of a special committee tasked with assessing threats posed by China.

Broadsides

RUSSIA BLAMES SOLDIERS FOR STRIKE: Russia is blaming its own troops’ cellphone use for a Ukrainian strike that killed 89 soldiers at a housing facility for newly-mobilized troops, The Wall Street Journal’s ANN M. SIMMONS and JARED MALSIN report.

“It is already obvious that the main reason for what happened was the inclusion and massive use, contrary to the ban, by personnel of mobile phones in the reach of enemy weapons,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Pro-war factions within the country had already criticized military officials for housing troops in an area they deemed not secure, located near munitions and other equipment.

The move to blame soldiers comes at an inflection point in the conflict and risks harming already-low Russian morale, worsened by a September mobilization that saw many new troops improperly deployed with minimal training or supplies.

Transitions

— The White House announced several new nominations, including ANA ESCROGIMA as ambassador to Oman, JEAN ELIZABETH MANES as ambassador to Colombia, ERVIN MASSINGA as ambassador to Ethiopia, YAEL LEMPERT as ambassador to Jordan, STEPHANIE SYPTAK-RAMNATH as ambassador to Peru and DOROTHY SHEA as deputy U.S. representative to the U.N.

— DWAYNE CLARK is the new national security adviser for Rep. ROBERT ADERHOLT (R-Ala.). He was a legislative assistant in the same office and, prior to that, worked for Rep. ANTHONY GONZALEZ (R-Ohio).

— PEITER ZATKO has joined the cybersecurity company Rapid7. He’s better known as a Twitter whistleblower for alleging security problems at the social media company and by his hacker-era name “Mudge.”

— MAX ROSE has joined The Soufan Group as vice chair. He was previously a representative from New York from 2019 to 2021.

What to Read

— DANIEL TWINING, POLITICO: Ukraine Is Already Paying Us Back

— MATTHEW DUSS and STEPHEN WERTHEIM, The New Republic: A Better Biden Doctrine

— LAUREN WOLFE, Foreign Policy: Russia Is Afraid of Western Psychic Attacks

Tomorrow Today

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Unanswered Questions about North Korean Leadership

— The Foreign Policy Research Institute, 10 a.m.: Where is Somalia Headed

— Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: Code Name Blue Wren: The True Story of America’s Most Dangerous Female Spy - and the Sister She Betrayed

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