— Recent history: Polls on Quebec independence have shown steady backing for sovereignty, ranging from the high 20s to the low 30s. Last June, Léger put support at 32 percent, up from 27 percent in December 2020.

The modest but significant hike is welcome news to pro-independence Quebecers, but there’s a catch.

— Behind the headline: The Léger data also exposed a major challenge for the sovereignty movement: Young voters no longer drive it as they did 30 and 40 years ago.

Almost half of the voters between the ages of 18 and 34 are against sovereignty; 31 percent are in favor. It’s probably worth noting the last Quebec referendum was in 1995, before many in this cohort were born.

Among voters aged 35 to 54, 34 percent were in favor and 55 percent against.

Only among voters over 55 — those who lived through the constitutional battles of the 1980s and 1990s — do we find a statistical tie: Fifty percent against, 45 percent in favor.

— The takeaway: Sovereigntists have to work to keep the dream of independence alive. If young voters do not join the cause, support for sovereignty could fizzle as the movement loses torch-carrying baby boomers by attrition.

Only 14 percent of the younger cohort support the PQ; 16 percent support the Bloc Québécois, the PQ’s cousins at the federal level. In both cases, the sovereigntist parties rank a distant third.

Quebec Premier François Legault has said he has no intention of holding a referendum. His governing Coalition Avenir Québec dominates rivals with 40 percent of support province-wide, 22 points ahead of the Parti Québécois (18 percent). Left-wing Québec solidaire stood at 17 percent, while the Liberals — still licking their wounds from their disastrous results last fall — were stuck at 14 percent, including a measly 4 percent among francophone voters.

— Another question: How can backing for sovereignty (38 percent) double support for the PQ (18 percent), the party that champions it?

The gap suggests most pro-independence voters don’t back the party whose raison-d’être is and remains separation from Canada: Eighty-five percent of PQ voters support independence, while 93 percent of Liberals oppose it.

The numbers get trickier with the two other parties at the National Assembly.

Among CAQ voters, 42 percent would support independence if it were held to a vote, and 52 percent would vote against.

This result depicts how fine a line Legault must walk between nationalism and the threat of separation. While it is never a bad time for a Quebec premier to take on the federal government, Legault must keep in mind that a majority of CAQ voters stand against sovereignty.

The other curious case is the pro-independence Quebec solidaire. Poll after poll has shown that around half of QS voters support the party for its socialist policies, and would vote against independence. In this newer poll from Léger, 45 percent of QS voters oppose Quebec independence, while 43 percent are in favor.

Opinion polls on Quebec independence used to appear monthly before and after the razor-thin, no-side victory in the 1995 referendum. (The federalist option barely prevailed — 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent.) But with the demise of the Parti Québécois in recent years, independence has not been considered a top-issue for a critical mass of Quebec voters.

— The state of play: In 2012, the PQ had 54 seats in the 125-seat National Assembly. Today it has three — including one in eastern Montreal held by party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

Polls and projections leading to the 2022 election showed the PQ headed to a historic defeat. After an effective and optimistic campaign, Plamondon went from single-digit support to a 14.6 percent result in the election.

It’s the worst tally in the party’s history, and yet managed to surpass expectations.

Since the election, PQ strategists have worked successfully to keep the spotlight on their elected lawmakers. It was PQ MNAs that forced the National Assembly to make the Oath to the British Monarch optional for provincial lawmakers (a first in Canada).

Just last week, Plamondon was on a tour of Britain, Scotland, France and Belgium for meetings and photo-ops. Not since Pauline Marois was premier 10 years ago has a PQ leader had so much visibility.

The PQ hit rock-bottom in October and its future remains uncertain, but pro-independence voters still insist it’s the first time things have looked up in years.