Playbook PM: Slowing growth, rising worries

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IT’S OFFICIAL — West Virginia Gov. JIM JUSTICE has filed paperwork to run for Senate against Democratic incumbent JOE MANCHIN, with the official announcement coming tonight. He’s a marquee recruit for the NRSC but will face a spirited primary against Rep. ALEX MOONEY, who’s already launching a TV ad decrying Justice — a Democrat until the Trump administration — as a liberal. More from Holly Otterbein

The next big decision shaping the race — and the whole 2024 Senate map, really — is Manchin’s. He’s widely regarded as the only Democrat in West Virginia who can keep the race competitive, and choosing to retire or perhaps run an independent presidential campaign would free up national Republicans to spend tens of millions of dollars in other competitive states. Manchin, who has said he won’t make a decision before the end of the year, said in a statement: “I will win any race I enter.”

ON THE SOFTER SIDE — A weaker-than-expected GDP report today stoked fresh fears of impending recession, as economic growth slowed under the weight of higher interest rates and the recent banking crisis in the first quarter.

The economy expanded by 1.1% year over year, per new Commerce Department data, barely half of the nearly 2% than economists had predicted and down sharply from 2.6% at the end of 2022. That did represent the third consecutive quarter of growth — but the trend is heading in the wrong direction. The prime culprits: businesses reducing their inventories and a struggling housing market. Details from the NYT

The Fed’s campaign of interest rate hikes has partially succeeded in bringing inflation down, but prices are still high, and achieving a soft landing without cratering the U.S. economy may be difficult.

“Across the financial industry, the overwhelming consensus is that the economy will struggle this year,” warns Ben White, “with more than a dozen big banks in recent weeks forecasting little or no growth — or even a recession.”

The GDP report did contain some bright spots, though: Consumer spending, especially on goods, has remained robust and is significantly propping up the industry. That metric actually sped up to its fastest growth rate since 2021. And the labor market has stayed pretty robust, with more than 300,000 new jobs last quarter, as higher wages and solid hiring help Americans handle inflation.

President JOE BIDEN put a positive spin on the numbers in a statement: “Today, we learned that the American economy remains strong, as it transitions to steady and stable growth.”

But now the big question is whether GDP growth keeps cooling all the way across the 0% line as the year goes on.

THE TRUMP DEFAMATION/RAPE TRIAL — DONALD TRUMP attorney JOE TACOPINA is cross-examining E. JEAN CARROLL today in the civil trial over her allegation that Trump raped her in the 1990s, which he denies. Tacopina has questioned Carroll about why she didn’t come forward during the 2016 campaign (“I was in deep, incredibly painful mourning” for her mother, she said), her history of voting as a Democrat and her inability to pinpoint the exact date the alleged assault took place. Live updates from the NYT

Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at [email protected].

IN MEMORIAM — “Jerry Springer, politician-turned-TV ringmaster, dies at 79,” by AP’s Dan Sewell: “At its peak, ‘The Jerry Springer Show’ was a ratings powerhouse and a U.S. cultural pariah, synonymous with lurid drama. … Gerald Norman Springer was born Feb. 13, 1944, in a London underground railway station being used as a bomb shelter. … He was active in politics much of his adult life, mulling a run for governor of Ohio as recently as 2017” and serving as mayor of Cincinnati. Watch his infamous 1980 gubernatorial campaign ad

CONGRESS

WHO’S GOT IT RIGHT? — Both Democrats and Republicans feel confident that parts of the big debt limit/spending cuts/policy messaging bill the House GOP passed yesterday will redound to their political benefit. Somebody’s mistaken, but it may be too soon to tell who:

— Republicans consider their major energy bill, which was included in the package, a big political winner, Zack Colman and Josh Siegel report. They see H.R. 1’s combination of fossil fuel and permitting infrastructure boosts as a rejoinder to Democrats’ climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act that will play well on the campaign trail. Polling shows the legislation plays well when framed as an inflation-fighting measure. But there are risks too, Zack and Josh write: Similar energy messaging didn’t work very well for the GOP last year. In a new survey, public awareness of the bill is low. And trying to undo the IRA could threaten lots of projects already underway in red states.

— Meanwhile, Democrats are scheming on how to attack Republicans for the overall debt limit bill, Nick Wu and Daniella Diaz report. The party thinks they can run back the same tactics that worked in 2018, when they flipped the House by hammering the GOP for votes on tax cuts, Obamacare and Social Security. But here, too, there are potential pitfalls if voters end up blaming Democrats as much as (or more than) Republicans for a debt limit crisis.

WHO’S AT DEFAULT — There’s a divide in conservative economic policy circles over whether congressional Republicans should be steering the U.S. toward the brink of default to secure spending cuts, WaPo’s Jeff Stein reports. A few prominent budget wonks, like BRIAN RIEDL, MICHAEL STRAIN and DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, are attempting to warn their party of looming calamity if the U.S. sails over the cliff. But RUSS VOUGHT’s faction of thinkers tells Republicans that trying to reduce the national debt is worth the risk of default — and he’s increasingly found purchase with members of Congress.

STOCK AND TRADE — “Congress Pushes to Police Stock Trading by Federal Officials,” by WSJ’s Rebecca Ballhaus, Coulter Jones and James Grimaldi: “Congress is pressing federal agencies to better police their officials’ stock trading, while the energy secretary became the first cabinet member to signal support for banning such trading. … Meanwhile, the Journal for the first time is posting online the ‘public’ financial-disclosure forms it obtained.”

BIPARTISAN BURST — A new bill from Democrats and Republicans in both chambers would push drugmakers to work on tackling antibiotic-resistant bacteria and fungi, an increasing concern in public health, WSJ’s Dominique Mosbergen scooped.

MEDIAWATCH

FAKE NEWS — “Inside a private portal from GOP campaigns to local news sites,” by WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Josh Dawsey: “The top Republican campaigns in Illinois used a private online portal last year to request stories and shape coverage in a network of media outlets that present themselves as local newspapers … The online portal offers the potential for a new level of collaboration between political operators and certain media outlets — one in which candidates can easily seek to customize news stories without the public’s knowledge. The use of the tactic in Illinois has caught the attention of allies of former president Donald Trump, who have discussed the potential of expanding the operation.”

MORE LAYOFFS — Vice Media is canceling “Vice News Tonight,” with dozens of employees, particularly within the company’s D.C. bureau, losing their jobs, per CNN’s Oliver Darcy: “The company will sunset the Vice World News brand and fold its operations under the Vice News umbrella, giving the company a singular news brand. It will also slash its dedicated audio unit, as well as the Vice World News short form video team.”

CNN SHUFFLE — JOHN KING is leaving his “Inside Politics” show to work on a new CNN project about 2024 battleground states — and he’ll be replaced by DANA BASH, who’s taking on her first daily solo show, WaPo’s Jeremy Barr reports. (Interestingly, King and Bash are ex-spouses.) Bash will keep co-anchoring “State of the Union” on Sundays.

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — The U.S. today is rolling out a plan to establish in-person migrant processing centers at various locations in Latin America, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez and Margaret Brennan report. The goal is to help screen more immigrants away from the southern border to figure out whether they can come to U.S., reducing the pressure on resources at the U.S.-Mexico divide. Colombia, Ecuador and Guatemala are among the possible locales.

— @camiloreports: “DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS says the Biden administration has ‘no plan’ to reinstate the practice of detaining migrant families with children in ICE detention centers. This is after weeks of saying no decision had been made on the practice, which was discontinued in 2021.”

2024 WATCH

NEW PROBLEMS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE — “Why Biden may have to forfeit the first contest in his re-election bid to Marianne Williamson or RFK Jr.,” by NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald: “While Biden’s campaign would likely shrug off the outcome of contests it didn’t even compete in, the situation could be nerve-wracking for ever-anxious Democrats.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

JACK THE DRIPPER — Prosecutors said in a new filing that accused Air National Guard leaker JACK TEIXEIRA has a troubling online history even before allegedly publicizing massive U.S. intelligence secrets, NYT’s Glenn Thrush reports. They write that Teixeira talked about violence on murder on Discord; made “racial threats”; had many guns at home; and was suspended from his high school for violent comments. All of that “is certain to raise new questions about how Airman Teixeira obtained a top-secret security clearance.” Prosecutors also allege that Teixeira tried to destroy evidence as investigators circled him.

Teixeira’s defense said he should be released from detention and dismissed the prosecution’s arguments as “hyperbolic judgments,” per WSJ’s Jon Kamp and Sadie Gurman. The hearing is today.

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — The U.S. wants to dial down the temperature with China — but first the Biden administration has to decide who its fixer will be, Bob Davis reports in POLITICO Magazine. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO are all jockeying for the role. But Beijing is furious at Blinken after the spy balloon brouhaha. “The bureaucratic wrangling has been fairly civil thus far by Washington standards, but the Biden administration is eager to tamp down any notion of internal conflict.” Some experts are skeptical that anybody will be able to break through with China, as bad blood deepens.

EVAN GERSHKOVICH LATEST — Russia denied U.S. officials’ attempt to visit the jailed WSJ reporter as a tit-for-tat after it said the U.S. denied visas to Russian journalists, per WSJ’s Ann Simmons.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE LATEST ANTI-TRANSGENDER FRONTIER — Kansas Republicans today overrode Gov. LAURA KELLY’s veto to impose an anti-transgender bathroom/public space law that’s possibly the most thorough yet anywhere in the country, The Kansas City Star’s Katie Bernard reports. Set to take effect July 1, the law goes beyond schools to bar transgender people from using bathrooms in prisons, locker rooms and other single-sex spaces that align with their identity. People won’t be able to change their gender on their driver’s licenses anymore either. Still, without penalties, it’s not exactly clear how it will be implemented.

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.) hosted a “Crawfish and Cannabis” crawfish boil event at Dacha Navy Yard last night. Carter introduced crawfish experts from New Orleans, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke about bipartisan opportunities to move on marijuana legislation. Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) also showed up with his bowtie. Video

— Comcast NBCUniversal and NBC News Group hosted a reception last night at America’s Square celebrating the release of the Washington episode of MSNBC’s “Leguizamo Does America.” The event featured a Q&A with show host John Leguizamo and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) moderated by Alicia Menendez. While chatting about his cultural background, Torres joked that he didn’t “fabricate any of those identities,”’ while both Torres and Leguizamo emphasized the importance of representing “Latin excellence” in the media. Guests dined on pupusas, plátanos fritos, empanadas and mezcal margaritas on the rooftop decorated with sugar skulls. SPOTTED: Reps. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.) and Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), Rashida Jones, Maria Teresa Kumar, Edward Fisher, Liz Cole, Haylie Reichner, Stephen Labaton, Dalila Wilson-Scott, Gwyneth Gaul, Jackie Puente, Ben DeJesus, Emma Carrasco, Jesse Rodriguez, Michael LaRosa, Sena Fitzmaurice, Rebecca Kutler, Lorie Acio, Kris Schneider, Phil Tahtakran, Juan Otero, Jacob Long and Valeria Ojeda-Avitia. Pic

— Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies held an event at Charlie Palmer’s rooftop celebrating the hiring of former Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) as managing director. SPOTTED: Reps. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Mike Bost (R-Ill.), Trent Kelly (R-Miss.), Marc Veasey (D-Texas), Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Mike Carey (R-Ohio), Jerry Carl (R-Ala.), David Valadao (R-Calif.), Austin Scott (R-Ga.), Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, Jim Davis, John Dunn, Darren Collier, Rose Christ, Katie Schwab and Jerry Kilgore.

— SPOTTED at Toyota’s “Mission Impossible” party yesterday evening at Eastern Market: Reps. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.), Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Carol Miller (R-W.Va.), Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) and Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.).

— Trinidad and Tobago Ambassador Anthony W. J. Phillips-Spencer and Fox News’ Richard Fowler hosted a dinner last night at the embassy honoring Black contributors and correspondents. SPOTTED: Jamaican Ambassador Audrey Marks, Bahamian Ambassador Wendall Jones, Laura Coates, Yamiche Alcindor, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Elliot Williams, Jason Johnson, Paul Butler, Nii-Quartelai Quartey, Shermichael Singleton, Juan Williams, Joshua and Michelle DuBois, Jasmine Wright, Arit John, Jackie Padilla, Brittany Packnett Cunningham, Nick Wiggins and Courtney Snowden.

TRANSITION — Genna Gent will be EVP of industry engagement at the Consumer Brands Association. She most recently was VP of global public policy and government relations at McDonald’s.

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