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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Maura Forrest, with Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Joseph Gedeon. Today, U.S. President JOE BIDEN will address Parliament before dining on Atlantic tuna and Alberta beef. Also, the budget leaks are flowing. And the opposition isn’t letting up on foreign interference.

DRIVING THE DAY


THE SCENE — World leaders. They’re just like us.

U.S. President JOE BIDEN landed in Ottawa around 6:30 p.m. last night, where he was greeted by fog, rain and Governor General MARY SIMON. The two dignitaries moved slowly off the tarmac, accompanied by their spouses, and into the Canada Reception Centre at the Ottawa airport, where they talked about … the weather. Because of course they did.

It’s been a “strange winter,” Simon said. Biden countered with all the forest fires and heavy rains on the West Coast. That climate change is a real doozy, they all agreed. It was, perhaps, the most Canadian of welcomes.

— Into the woods: Later, as the world’s most powerful politician and his wife chatted up the Trudeaus inside Rideau Cottage, the only hint at their presence behind a shroud of trees was a line of unmarked police vehicles, parked at intervals around the Rideau Hall perimeter, silently flashing their hazards.

Plus, obviously, the occasional New Edinburghian gawker hoping for a sighting of The Beast amid the thick fog.

— The entourage: POTUS brought a posse along for the ride on Air Force One. These are the biggest names we spotted:

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM, National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, deputy chief of staff JEN O’MALLEY DILLON, Homeland Security Adviser LIZ SHERWOOD-RANDALL, director of the National Economic Council LAEL BRAINARD, National Security council chief of staff CURTIS RIED and National Security Council strategic comms coordinator JOHN KIRBY.

THE HEADLINE — The substance of Biden’s visit — a bilat with Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, the address to Parliament — will happen today. But for a trip that didn’t seem likely to deliver a lot of, in Hill speak, “deliverables,” it seems the big news has already broken.

Around midday yesterday, Radio-Canada reported that Ottawa had reached an agreement with the Biden administration to accept a certain number of migrants through official channels. The agreement would allow the government to shut down the unofficial border crossing at Roxham Road that has been a thorn in the Liberals’ side for years.

— The details: Soon, POLITICO and other media outlets confirmed that Canada has scored a deal to close a loophole in the Safe Third Country Agreement that allows asylum seekers to enter the country between official checkpoints without being turned away, as they would be at regular border crossings.

In exchange, Canada has agreed to accept 15,000 more migrants from the Western hemisphere through legal pathways.

Trudeau signaled on Wednesday that a deal might be in the offing. His government has been under pressure from the opposition and Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT to shut down the crossing at Roxham Road, where nearly 40,000 asylum seekers entered the country last year.

— Related reading: The Toronto Star’s ALLAN WOODS joined the RCMP on patrol at Roxham Road.

And SUSAN DELACOURT noted that the news landed exactly 30 days after Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE demanded the government close Roxham Road… within 30 days.

THE OTHER ISSUES — POLITICO’s MYAH WARD has a rundown of what else will be on today’s agenda for the two leaders.

— NORAD: “The Chinese spy balloon and a series of unidentified flying objects over both air spaces last month has put pressure on both leaders to address the evolving air threats.”

— Ukraine and defense spending: “[U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN] recently noted that [Canada] has stepped up its support to Ukraine in terms of military equipment, but that defense remains a top priority for both countries.”

— Haiti: “For months, the White House has suggested it wants Canada to take the lead in a multi-national military intervention to bring stability to the country. But Ottawa has refrained from committing.”

— Chinese interference: “Trudeau doesn’t want to talk about it, but I think if he’s smart, he might just ask Biden, ‘What do we know? Are they messing in your elections? What are we going to do for the next election?’” CHRISTOPHER SANDS, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, told POLITICO.

— Inflation Reduction Act: “IRA subsidies for electric vehicle consumers have been written to include Canada, but when it comes to batteries, Canada has joined South Korea and Europe in expressing frustration that IRA subsidies are focused on bringing manufacturing to the United States.”

— Trade and critical minerals: “The countries are working together on a collaborative basis to reduce supply vulnerabilities in key areas like critical minerals, which will be needed in large quantities for electric vehicles, solar panels and other clean energy technologies.”

Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM are renewing acquaintances today. They’ll meet this morning for a bilat at the Chateau Laurier. Topics on the agenda: zero-emission vehicle infrastructure, clean energy, critical minerals, and nuclear. They’ll both attend a meeting between Biden, Trudeau and members of Cabinet. Wilkinson and Granholm will also sit together at the gala dinner tonight.

ALSO ON THE AGENDA — Most of the attention today will be on Biden and his speech to Parliament, scheduled for 2 p.m. But while the president and the PM are meeting in West Block this morning, SOPHIE GRÉGOIRE TRUDEAU and JILL BIDEN will be off curling.

OK, they’ll actually “visit Canadian youth participating in a curling program and host a conversation to discuss youth wellness and mental health,” per a news release. Will they actually throw any stones? We can only hope.

Later, the First Lady and Grégoire Trudeau will visit the National Gallery of Canada, which fortunately has been entirely controversy-free in recent months.

— The final touch: The trip will wrap up with a gala dinner at the Canada Aviation and Space Museum, prepared by the National Arts Centre’s executive chef, KENTON LEIER. In case you want to know what’s on the menu (you know you do), Playbook has you covered:

Appetizer:
Cedar Salt and Seaweed Crusted Rare-Seared East Coast Yellowfin Tuna
White Bean Hummus, Cucumber, Pickled Radish and Bitter Greens
Flax Seed Cracker and Lemon Parsley Emulsion

Main:
Alberta Beef Braised Short Rib
Butternut Squash Purée and Yukon Gold Potato Pavé
Wildflower Honey Roasted Carrots and Fine Green Beans
Pelée Island Cabernet Sauvignon Jus

Dessert:
Wild Blueberry and Quebec Maple Mousse Cake
Screech Rum Caramel and Sweetgrass Meringue
Fresh Berries

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


11:05 a.m. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will greet U.S. President JOE BIDEN as he arrives on Parliament Hill.

11:10 a.m. Biden will attend a welcoming ceremony in West Block, attended by Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH, Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY, House Speaker ANTHONY ROTA and Senate Speaker GEORGE FUREY, among others.

11:30 a.m. Trudeau and Biden will meet in the PM’s office.

11:45 a.m. The president will meet with Trudeau and Cabinet ministers.

2 p.m. Biden will deliver an address to Parliament.

3:45 p.m. Biden will join Trudeau in the Sir JOHN A. MACDONALD building, where they’ll take questions from the media.

6:30 p.m. The Trudeaus will host the Bidens at a VIP-filled shindig at the Canadian Aviation and Space Museum.

9:25 p.m. Wheels up for Wilmington, Delaware.

For your radar



DOLLARS AND CENTS — It’s T-minus 106 hours until Budget 2023 is revealed. In other words, it’s everyone’s favorite part of pre-budget season: time for strategically placed leaks!

Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND has already telegraphed that Ottawa will focus spending in two major areas: the clean economy and health care transfers to the provinces. She has also said the budget will provide targeted assistance to help low-income Canadians deal with the effects of inflation.

The Liberals will likely be hard-pressed to change the channel from the foreign interference controversy with even the juiciest of budget leaks. So in case you haven’t been paying attention, here are some of the tidbits that have been dropped ahead of the big day.

— Clean-tech tax credit: The budget will include a 30 percent investment tax credit for clean-tech manufacturing, part of Canada’s response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, STEVE SCHERER reports for Reuters.

— More tax credits: The budget could also include production tax credits for clean electricity, movement on carbon contracts for difference and funding for skills training in the clean-tech sector, MIA RABSON writes for the Canadian Press.

— Green power: New spending to expand the capacity of the country’s electricity grids “will be a major component” of the federal budget, the Globe and Mail’s ADAM RADWANSKI writes.

— And for something completely different: Budget 2023 will crack down on so-called “junk fees” for consumers, NOJOUD AL MALLEES reports for the Canadian Press.

BUDGETMAKING 301 — AMITPAL SINGH, a former policy adviser to both Freeland and BILL MORNEAU, published the final part of his Substack series focused on the policy and politics that drive the government’s thinking on federal budgets.

— An excerpt: Working through the budget process surfaces three political realities.

First, the budget represents different things to the two parties that control the process. For the Prime Minister’s Office, it’s the loudest tool to reveal the government’s values. For the Department of Finance, the budget is a policy project.

Second, the finance minister is responsible for the document, but no decision is final until the prime minister reviews and provides their concurrence. Should the pair disagree, the PM’s view trumps. Accepting that process for what it is matters, because in its final form, a budget belongs to the PM and their desired story.

The policy review process surfaces our final reality: the minister of finance is a price-taker. They don’t decide if a policy proposal is enacted. They assess the degree to which it’s enacted, relative to competing and complementary interests.

A policy’s time has indeed come if it emerged from the party’s grassroots, successfully survived platform inclusion and the judgment of the electorate, was prioritized in a ministerial mandate letter and benefitted from Cabinet advocacy — and, of course, earned the sympathies of the prime minister.

— Check out Singh’s full post here.


CONSERVATIVE GABFEST — The event formerly known as the Manning Conference will wrap up after noon today, shortly before the president makes his address to Parliament.

But one moment from yesterday’s program jumped out at us. Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH, who took the stage after lunch to a standing ovation, was asked to weigh in on the Canadian media landscape and what she sees as its future.

Smith said she wishes the mainstream media would go back to “being fair, accurate and balanced,” but added she doesn’t think that’s likely. The solution, in her view? More alternative news sources that sit clearly on the right or left of the political spectrum (she mentioned Canadaland, Rebel News, the Tyee and True North in the same breath).

“It’s creating a business model that I think is going to work,” she said.

Smith said she’ll continue to speak with mainstream media, but only out of necessity. “We have to be present there,” she said. “But if we want to get a positive story out about us, we have to do it ourselves.”

— In related reading: STEPHANIE TAYLOR of the Canadian Press writes on PIERRE POILIEVRE’s afternoon speech to the conference.

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


Who’s up: STEPHEN HARPER, who need only show up in Ottawa to set Conservative hearts aflutter.

Who’s down: PMO chief of staff KATIE TELFORD, who we imagine could come up with quite a long list of things she’d rather do than testify for a third time before a parliamentary committee.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION


The U.S. president may be in town, but the opposition is doing its best to make sure the Liberals can’t change the channel on the foreign interference controversy. In the House of Commons yesterday, the Conservatives used Question Period to demand answers about what Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU knew regarding the latest allegations about MP HAN DONG (the PM wasn’t present).

Immediately after QP, the House voted for a non-binding NDP motion calling for a public inquiry into the alleged election meddling. It passed 172-149, with only Liberals voting against.

— Of note: Dong, newly independent, cast his vote in favor of a public inquiry. NATHANIEL ERSKINE-SMITH was the lone Liberal MP who abstained. But two other MPs, Liberal JOËL LIGHTBOUND and New Democrat BRIAN MASSE, simply didn’t vote, despite being present for other votes happening at the same time.

“I support the idea of an independent inquiry and have been frustrated with the slow pace of our response at times,” Erskine-Smith tells Playbook. “But I would also like to see what [special rapporteur DAVID] JOHNSTON proposes as a way forward and this vote preempted that process.”

Playbook has also reached out to Lightbound and Masse, but has yet to hear back.

— The latest news: The Globe reports: Trudeau government decided CSIS transcript of MP Han Dong provided no “actionable evidence.” A timeline of reporting within the story reveals ROBERT FIFE and STEVEN CHASE had been working on it since at least February.

— To better understand the headlines about foreign interference from China, Playbook put questions to DAVID WELCH, professor and research chair at the University of Waterloo, and CRAIG SINGLETON, U.S.-based senior China fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

What are the most pressing unanswered questions?

Welch: The truly explosive story about Han Dong may be based on clear hard evidence, but it may be based on unclear evidence or on no hard evidence at all. We are likely never to know, because the intelligence community is unlikely to want to risk jeopardizing sources and methods by telling us. I think it is important for us not to leap to conclusions that we cannot substantiate.

Does anything surprise you about this story?

Singleton: Washington has for years warned about Chinese malign influence. … These latest allegations in Canada are broadly consistent with Chinese political interference operations uncovered in places like Australia. The sad part is that many countries, including some of America’s closest allies, all too often dismiss Washington’s concerns about Chinese malign influence, that is until they themselves uncover such operations within their own borders.

Is this a trend?

Singleton: Beijing is clearly shifting its focus from influencing foreign audiences to blatantly interfering in their elections. Of particular importance to Beijing is undermining democratic governance in the nascent but growing coalition of Western countries poised to push back on China’s increasingly belligerent behavior. Clearly, in this case, as in others, Beijing determined that the potential benefits of proceeding with these incredibly provocative interference operations exceeded the potential risks.

MEDIA ROOM


— You might have already guessed, but it was JUSTIN TRUDEAU and his wife, SOPHIE GRÉGOIRE TRUDEAU, who stayed in the C$6,000-a-night hotel suite for the funeral of QUEEN ELIZABETH II. The Canadian Press has the story.

— For Radio-Canada, GAÉTAN POULIOT investigates the mysterious identity of the head of Neptune, a security agency that has received hundreds of millions of dollars in public contracts, including from the RCMP.

— Our colleagues on the defense team followed a hearing on the military’s response to the Chinese spy balloon.

— The latest episode of Hub Dialogues features SEAN SPEER in conversation with KEVIN CHAN, global policy campaign strategies director at Meta, about the Metaverse and the future of the internet.

— An organization representing U.S. news publishers is asking President JOE BIDEN to support Canada’s Online News Act, Bill C-18, during his visit to Ottawa, ANJA KARADEGLIJA reports for the National Post.

— For the Globe and Mail, OLIVER MOORE and DUSTIN COOK break down Ontario’s 2023 budget highlights.

— Canada and IBM will seal a high-level agreement on expanding semiconductor cooperation today, BRIAN PLATT reports for Bloomberg.

— And JEAN CHRÉTIEN doesn’t think Chinese election interference is “a very big problem,” he told TVA Nouvelles.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here’s our latest policy newsletter: 27 hours in Ottawa.

From DOUG PALMER, ZI-ANN LUM and KELSEY TAMBORRINO: How the U.S. and Canada are trying to break China’s clean tech dominance.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Austin, Biden accused of delaying action on the Chinese spy balloon.

— TikTok CEO faces congressional grilling over national security concerns.

— Congress is kinda lame, TikTok-verse decides.

— Tai plays defense as Senate rips into trade agenda.

— Granholm, GOP lawmaker tangle over China remarks.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to OLIVIA CHOW, LYNNE YELICH, ROSEMARIE KUPTANA, DAVID SUZUKI and LIAM DALY.

Celebrating Saturday: ETHEL BLONDIN-ANDREW, the first Indigenous woman elected to Parliament. Also born on this day: Former Conservative MP JEFF WATSON. … LOYOLA HEARN, former MP, Cabinet minister and ambassador to Ireland (80!), and Warshield Strategist JENNIFER LAEWETZ.

Sunday birthdays: Conservative MP MARK STRAHL and educator ROSEMARY GANLEY, former member of the G-7 advisory council on gender equity.

Send birthdays to [email protected].

Spotted: EUGENE LEVY, at the Met.

CORMAC MAC SWEENEY, documenting the security measures around Parliament Hill ahead of Biden’s arrival. … BRIAN PLATT noted the Toronto police horses.

WYATT SHARPE, waiting for Biden.

JONATHAN MALLOY’s new book, The Paradox of Parliament, in print.


On the Hill


→ Find upcoming House committees here

→ Keep track of Senate committees here

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: In True Reconciliation, JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD writes: “The story I was told about myself was that I was born and expected to lead.”

Props to ALEX WELLSTEAD, KENJI SATO, PATRICK DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOANNA PLATER, ANDRÉ BRISEBOIS, MICHAEL MACDONALD, MARY JANE ALLAN and BOB GORDON.

Today’s question: Who said the following during his address to Parliament: “It is time for us to recognize that we have separate identities, that we have significant differences, and that nobody’s interests are furthered when these realities are obscured. Each nation must define the nature of its own interests, decide the requirements of its own security, and determine the path of its own progress.” h/t JENNIFER BONDER

Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best.

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected]