The evacuation calculation

With help from Daniel Lippman

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The United States has now organized at least three convoys to evacuate American citizens from Sudan. As the fighting continues, the Biden administration seeks multiple pathways to whisk people to safety, some of which include the assistance of U.S. military personnel.

Just last week, though, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters that “it is not standard practice for the United States to send in the U.S. military into warzones to extract all American citizens. We didn’t do it in Libya. We didn’t do it in Syria. We didn’t do it in Yemen. And, no, we didn’t do it in Ukraine,” he said. “Afghanistan was a unique case involving the end of a 20-year war that the United States was centrally involved in.”

That’s not the full story. U.S. Marines have evacuated Americans from conflict zones at least 10 times from 1991 to 2004, and the Trump administration launched a large operation to bring home Americans as the Covid-19 pandemic led nations to close their borders.

So, what, precisely, is the U.S. government’s obligation to its citizens in peril abroad?

First off, the U.S. government is not legally required to evacuate Americans from global hotspots. (Let that sink in as you make travel plans.) Instead, the government is statutorily obliged to have “policies and programs” in place for potential missions, said a senior State Department official granted anonymity to discuss sensitive operational issues, and it has a methodology it follows when looking at each situation.

In weighing whether an evacuation is feasible, U.S. officials consider factors such as whether there are working airfields or whether another country is better able to rescue the stranded Americans. Arguably the most important factor is the risk to U.S. troops and diplomats who would be involved in an evacuation mission.

During the Covid pandemic, “no one was shooting at you … When commercial airlines stopped flying, we could still charter planes,” said PAT KENNEDY, a former senior State Department official involved in previous evacuations. In other cases, such as wars, the risk of sending troops or keeping diplomats in a hotspot may prove “so great that it’s not doable.”

U.S. administrations instead often try to send diplomatic officials, troops or other resources as close as they can to a dangerous region, or find other ways to help Americans who are stuck — such as beefing up U.S. consular teams in neighboring countries or setting up hotlines that advise people on routes to take.

But the U.S. government’s technological and communications systems can easily be overwhelmed, preventing people in danger from getting up-to-date information, said ABED AYOUB, the national executive director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, who has tried to help Americans fleeing violence in Yemen.

Evacuation missions also are perennially hampered by an inability to track Americans abroad. Americans are not required to report their travel to the government, and forcing them to do so raises civil liberties concerns, so it’s unlikely the U.S. government will ever have an accurate number.

Still, U.S. officials will always try (the operative word) to help those who stay in a hotspot too long.

“We’re hard ass: ‘Get out, get out, get out.’” Kennedy said. “But we know that some number aren’t going to do that until they change their mind, and at that point, we see what we can do.”

The Inbox

BREAKING –– NEW BALLOON: There’s a new mysterious balloon that the U.S. military is tracking, according to NBC News COURTNEY KUBE and CAROL LEE. It was spotted over parts of Hawaii, but it’s unclear what exactly it is and who it belongs to.

UKRAINE FIGHTING RAMPS UP: Russia fired 18 cruise missiles at Ukraine on Monday, 15 of which were intercepted while the others damaged residential buildings and injured dozens in the eastern city of Pavlohrad, the Associated Press’ DAVID RISING reports.

The attacks come as Ukrainian forces continue to defend Bakhmut despite Russian troops closing in on the city in recent months. It’s been a difficult battle for the Ukrainians, but in recent days, officials said they’ve had success in causing Russians to retreat in some areas, Reuters’ DAN PELESCHUK reports.

Late Sunday, Ukraine’s strike of an oil depot in Crimea seemed to indicate the much-anticipated counteroffensive might be underway.

The attack, which occurred in the city of Sevastopol where the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet is based, is part of preparations for “the broad, full-scale offensive that everyone expects,” Ukrainian military official NATALIA HUMENIUK said, per the New York Times’ MATTHEW MPOKE BIGG.

As the warring nations gear up for more fighting, Pope FRANCIS has other things in mind. He’s embarking on a secret “mission” to stop the war in Ukraine, the Times’ JASON HOROWITZ reported. Francis didn’t give any hints as to what that mission entails, but the pope did disclose that he discussed the situation with Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN in Hungary and METROPOLITAN HILARION, the representative of the Russian Orthodox Church, in Budapest this week.

While adversarial relationships between Russia and China with the U.S. intensify, major developing countries such as India, Brazil, Pakistan and Egypt are exploiting the divisions for their own gain, leaked Pentagon documents obtained by the Washington Post’s MISSY RYAN show.

On Monday, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said that Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut since December, more than 20,000 of them killed in action.

Read: Inside the group that’s saving Ukraine by our own LARA SELIGMAN and PAUL McLEARY

MCCARTHY IN ISRAEL: Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY honored the 75th anniversary of Israel’s independence and vowed to fully support security funding “as long as I am speaker” during a speech before the Knesset on Monday, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports.

McCarthy made the speech as he led a 19-member congressional delegation to Israel as part of his first trip abroad since taking the post in January. He also referenced threats to Israel from Iran and reaffirmed the U.S. aim of keeping Tehran from building nuclear weapons.

Before that, he took a partisan jab at Biden on behalf of Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in an interview with Israel Hayom, the pro-Bibi paper founded by SHELDON ADELSON.

When asked about the White House not inviting Netanyahu to Washington, McCarthy said: “If that doesn’t happen, I’ll invite the prime minister to come meet with the House. He’s a dear friend, as a prime minister of a country that we have our closest ties with.” McCarthy added that the visit should happen soon.

CRAFT TO THE PHILIPPINES: The U.S. will formally announce today the donation of aircraft and vessels to help the Philippines military modernize, NSC spokesperson Kirby told reporters Monday.

The announcement will involve the donation of three C-130 aircraft and four U.S. Coast Guard patrol vessels — two Island-class and two Protector-class cutters — from U.S. inventories, according to a senior administration official, who was granted anonymity by our own JOE GOULD (for Pros!).

Those transfers would still be subject to consultations and approvals from Congress.

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2024

TRUMP TALKS NATSEC: Former President DONALD TRUMP speculated that China released the Covid-19 virus in response to tariffs he imposed on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods during his presidency in a wide ranging interview with Fox News’ MARK LEVIN Sunday night.

“I was charging China so much money in tariffs and taxes that a lot of people said they did it to take me out,” Trump, who’s running for reelection, told Levin.

Trump also claimed he was “probably the first one” to support the lab leak theory behind the origins of the virus and complained he “never got credit” for how his administration handled the pandemic.

The 2024 candidate also reiterated his long standing criticism of other NATO countries which he claims are not paying their fair share compared to the U.S. “If you don’t pay, you get no protection whatsoever,” Trump claimed to have told NATO members.

Keystrokes

GUARDRAILS ON AI: Our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity asked senior U.S. officials last week about how they hope to ensure fast-moving AI tech development doesn’t lead to bigger problems.

KEMBA WALDEN, the acting national cyber director, said the tri-part stew of data, processing power and algorithms that make up AI is “all the things that ride on cyberspace that I’m trying to secure…Tech innovation is one of them. AI is one of them.”

ROB JOYCE, chief of the NSA’s cybersecurity directorate, said he was “very concerned” about adversaries (cough China cough) stealing intellectual property from American AI giants. He acknowledged his agency is already helping those companies batten down their digital doors against keyboard sleuths.

The takeaway? AI security is a major issue and the administration wants you to know they’re on it.

Read: ‘The Godfather of AI’ leaves Google and warns of danger ahead by the New York Times’ CADE METZ

The Complex

NATIONAL GUARD DATA DUMP: The Air National Guard, once viewed primarily as a strategic reserve force, has increasingly moved to the forefront of military operations and now provides half of the Air Force’s targeting analysis, according to BEN KESLING and MICHAEL GORDON of the Wall Street Journal.

The Guard has been involved in American operations in the Middle East, Russia and China, including a March mission during which an MQ-9 drone confronted a Russian warplane that later crashed into the Black Sea, an official told WSJ.

The revelation comes after the arrest of Air National Guardsman JACK TEIXEIRA for leaking national defense information online. The role of the Guard in operating drone targeting helps clarify why the National Guard installation had access to top secret data related to Ukraine and other intelligence.

NEW NAME: Fort Hood in Texas will be redesignated Fort Cavazos on May 9, the Army confirmed Monday.

“We are proud to be renaming Fort Hood as Fort Cavazos in recognition of an outstanding American hero, a veteran of the Korea and Vietnam wars and the first Hispanic to reach the rank of four-star general in our Army,” Lt. Gen. SEAN BERNABE, chief of the III Armored Corps, said of RICHARD CAVAZOS.

This will be one of nine redesignations of Army posts following recommendations from the Naming Commission.

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– NEW IRAN BILL: A bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill on Monday to solidify sanctions against Iran following Tehran’s recent seizure of a U.S.-bound oil tanker and an Iranian-backed drone strike in Syria that killed an American last month.

Introduced by Sens. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) BILL HAGERTY (R- Tenn.) and JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.), the Solidify Iran Sanctions Act would make permanent the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996, which consists of “triggers” that place sanctions on firms or entities that violate U.S. sanctions. SISA would remove the sunset provision in the ISA, making clear that the U.S. will continue sanctioning Iran until it changes its malign behavior, the senators wrote.

A companion bill was introduced in the House by Rep. MICHELLE STEEL (R-Calif.), Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and Rep. SUSIE LEE (D-Nev.).

“Cementing these sanctions will apply pressure on Iran and help restrain this regime from developing weapons that threaten safety and security around the world,” Scott, a likely 2024 GOP presidential candidate, said in a statement.

CARDIN WON’T RUN: Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) won’t run for reelection, meaning the upper chamber will lose a long-serving lawmaker interested in foreign affairs. Cardin, who spent 2015 to 2018 as the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is a staunchly pro-Israel senator who voted against the Iran nuclear deal, though he opposed Trump’s withdrawal from the accord.

Broadsides

NOT INVITED: The United Nations is hosting a two-day conference on Afghanistan in Qatar beginning Monday, with one group notably absent: the Taliban.

Some 25 countries and groups will join, including the United States, China, Russia, Pakistan and major European aid donors, to discuss the humanitarian situation in the country, Al Jazeera’s OSAMA BIN JAVAID reports. But without the Taliban, which controls Afghanistan, in attendance, the meeting will be “ineffective,” the governing militants said.

In a statement released over the weekend, the U.N. said the objective was to gain a “common understanding within the international community on how to engage with the Taliban,” particularly when it comes to issues of women’s rights, countering terrorism and drug trafficking, CBS News’ AHMAD MUKHTAR writes.

“Any meeting about Afghanistan without the participation of the Afghan government is ineffective and counterproductive,” ABDUL QAHAR BALKHI, the Taliban foreign ministry spokesperson, told Al Jazeera.

A group of 25 Afghan women protested Saturday against international recognition of the Taliban.

Transitions

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: JORDAN COLVIN is now VP at Gray Space Strategies, an intelligence firm founded by CORY SIMPSON, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was advocacy director at the Institute of Internal Auditors and has previously worked in Congress for JOSH GOTTHEIMER and RON DeSANTIS.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SAM MICHEL has been named acting assistant U.S. trade representative for public affairs, Daniel also reports. He most recently was deputy assistant USTR for public affairs.

— JENNIFER HUNT is now senior adviser for public engagement, overseeing veterans and military and family engagement for the executive office of the president. She most recently was Veterans Service Organization liaison at the Veterans Health Administration.

What to Read

— ANDREW SCOBELL, War On The Rocks: XI JINPING’s worst nightmare: A Potemkin People’s Liberation Army

— ANNE APPLEBAUM and JEFFREY GOLDBERG, The Atlantic: The case for the total liberation of Ukraine

— CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN and MARK STEVENSON, The Associated Press: ‘El Chapo’ sons charged with smuggling cheap fentanyl to U.S.

Tomorrow Today

— George Washington University, 9 a.m.: Korea Policy Forum: Assessing the Biden-Yoon Summit

— Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: The G7 Summit and a New Era of Japanese Leadership

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Posture of the Department of the Air Force in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Improving Access to Federal Grants for Underserved Communities

— Senate Appropriations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: Advancing Security and Prosperity Through International Conservation

— Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 11 a.m.: What Should Congress Include in The Next National Quantum Initiative Act?

— Association of the United States Army, 12 p.m.: Recruiting with Success: A Discussion with MG Davis, CG, USAREC

— National Press Club, 1 p.m.: News conference with DEBRA TICE

— Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 2 p.m.: Protecting Critical Infrastructure: The New National Cybersecurity Strategy

— Hudson Institute, 2:30 p.m.: Czech Foreign Minister JAN LIPAVSKÝ on the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and Transatlantic Ties

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 2:30 p.m.: The Current Readiness of the Joint Force

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 3 p.m.: FY2024 Budget Request for East Asia and the Pacific

— American Enterprise Institute, 4 p.m.: Local Needs in an International War: A Conversation with Ukrainian Mayors

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 4:45 p.m.:To receive testimony on the department of defense space activities in review of the defense authorization request for fiscal year 2024 and the future years defense program

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would never lift a finger to help us if we were in trouble.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would be the first one rescued.

CORRECTION: A previous edition of NatSec Daily incorrectly stated the date senators introduced SISA. The bill was introduced Monday.