Trump’s Iran deal zombie

With help from Alex Ward, Lee Hudson, Joe Gould and Stephanie Liechtenstein

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Five years ago today, President DONALD TRUMP pulled America out of the Iran nuclear deal. The deal is now like a zombie in a coma: You could awaken it, but it won’t be the same. And it might fall into pieces real fast.

Partly, that’s because some provisions of the original 2015 deal are closer to expiring and because Iranian nuclear scientists have accumulated more knowledge — bringing them nearer than ever to a bomb. U.S. economic sanctions and Israeli military operations haven’t stopped Iran’s nuclear progress.

The geopolitics today are also more difficult than in 2015. Iran’s Islamist regime recently brutally suppressed a nationwide protest movement, and many Iranians who previously supported dialogue with Tehran no longer do. The regime also is helping Russia attack Ukraine, angering Washington as well as European countries involved in trying to revive the deal.

Amid growing outside calls for some sort of Plan B, Biden aides are, publicly and privately, vague about their plans. Some say that Washington sees the deal as weaker and of less value than it was in 2015. Others suggest that since that’s the only deal Iran might consider adhering to, it has to remain in play — even if it’s just to buy some time.

Last week, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy: “We are also engaging Iran diplomatically regarding its nuclear program.” He didn’t specify what that meant. There have been reports of Washington floating a temporary plan to freeze Iran’s program, and the U.S. can always indirectly send a message to Iran. But major, serious talks? Nothing has been on the horizon since last summer, when U.S. officials say Iranian recalcitrance killed a nuclear deal revival.

Luckily — or not? — for the Biden administration, there’s no shortage of advice from Iran watchers on the five-year-mark of Trump’s withdrawal:

—In Foreign Affairs, ALI VAEZ and VALI NASR argue that recent political shifts in the Middle East offer a new path: “A U.S.-Iranian deal may not be feasible, but as Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf forge better ties with Tehran, what was once impossible — a regional agreement that simultaneously tackles Iran’s meddling in the Arabian Peninsula and its nuclear program — is now entirely conceivable.”

— In Foreign Policy, JANE DARBY MENTON suggests that “quixotic” quests for “better” deals can undermine more realistic efforts to rein in Iran’s program. “At this point, it is probably too late for the [2015 Iran deal],” she writes, nonetheless, adding, “Cultivating broader awareness about how this agreement worked should at least inform future debates over nonproliferation strategy and nuclear risk reduction with Iran and other potential proliferators.”

— But, in quotes sent to reporters, BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, whose analysts have long been critical of the 2015 deal, says it was a “Faustian bargain” the U.S. should fully abandon. The deal was “perhaps more akin to putting a misbehaving child in time-out rather than arms control and threat reduction. The built-in sunsets allow for Iran’s legal nuclear expansion over time, rendering critiques of Iran deal defenders of Iran’s recent nuclear escalation as null and void.”

OUR PULITZER FINALIST: Yes, you heard that right. ALEX WARD, your NatSec Daily anchor and mastermind of the operation, was named a Pulitzer Prize finalist this afternoon for his bombshell scoop on the Dobbs decision last year. With JOSH GERSTEIN, PETER CANELLOS, HEIDI PRYZBYLA, and HAILEY FUCHS too, of course!

We’re happy he’s not on the byline today, because he’s too humble to brag about himself ever. But he can’t stop us from doing so. Send him your congratulations!

The Inbox

U.K. HAS UKRAINE’S BACK: British Foreign Secretary JAMES CLEVERLY will be in Washington, D.C. this week to deliver the message that the U.K. and broader Europe will continue to support Ukraine.

“How do I define ‘win’? I mean that Ukrainians will eventually be able to settle this conflict on their own terms, decided by them without outside pressure,” he told NatSec Daily. “If we find ourselves wavering and scaling down our backing — and if Ukraine falters as a result — then Putin might yet achieve an outcome that he would claim as a victory.”

Cleverly also said that the United States is one major reason why Ukraine is still fighting for its freedom. “I have no hesitation about expressing the gratitude of the United Kingdom, not just for your support for Ukraine but for America’s wider role as a wise superpower,” he said.

Britain has been one of Ukraine’s largest backers throughout the war. Alongside the U.S., it has steeled Kyiv with military and economic aid over the last 14 months. Cleverly’s message is: That should continue “for as long as it takes.”

RUSSIA RAINS ROCKETS: Russia deployed its largest missile attack against Ukraine in months on Monday as Kyiv anticipates a renewed push by Moscow’s troops to take Bakhmut in the coming days.

About 60 drones were launched at targets across Ukraine, including 36 aimed at Kyiv which were shot down, Reuters’ GLEB GARANICH and VALENTYN OGIRENKO report. The strikes came as the head of Ukraine’s nuclear operator said that Russian officials were preparing to evacuate thousands of staff from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant before an expected increase in fighting, the Washington Post’s SIOBHÁN O’GRADY and KOSTIANTYN KHUDOV report.

After his harsh critique of Moscow’s military officials last week, Wagner chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN apparently changed his mind on withdrawing troops from Bakhmut, the symbolic eastern city that has seen some of the war’s heaviest fighting. Prigozhin had bashed Russia for not supporting his troops enough, and his plea appears to have worked: “We have been promised as much ammunition and armament as we need to keep going,” he said in an audio message on Telegram on Sunday.

That Prigozhin’s move succeeded was unsurprising to observers, as Moscow doesn’t have a good alternative to the thousands of paramilitary fighters in the area.

Following constant speculation in past weeks about the timing of Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive, top Ukrainian officials are pumping the brakes, lowering expectations about a massive attack that will boost Ukraine to decisive victory.

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV said in an interview with the Post published over the weekend. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” but that could lead to “emotional disappointment.”

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY adopted a similar tone, telling the Post that he believes that “the more victories we have on the battlefield, frankly, the more people will believe in us, which means we will get more help.”

Read: Latest Ukraine satellite images reveal devastation of Russian invasion by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA.

SULLIVAN’S CONVO WITH MBS: Top Biden advisers on Monday briefed Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU about national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN talks with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN the day before, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reports.

The details of the briefing weren’t made public, though U.S. and Israeli officials confirmed to Axios that Netanyahu was looped in. In a readout, White House characterized the talks on Sunday as “significant progress” in Yemen peace efforts.

Amid strained tensions with the kingdom, Sullivan held joint discussions with the crown prince, UAE national security adviser SHEIKH TAHNOON BIN ZAYED NAHYAN and India’s national security adviser AJIT DOVAL “to advance their shared vision of a more secure and prosperous Middle East region interconnected with India and the world,” the White House said in a statement.

Sullivan and the crown prince discussed the efforts to consolidate the 15-month long truce in Yemen and welcomed the continuation of United Nations-led efforts to end the war, the readout said. The four officials pledged to continue having regular communication on the issues.

BIDEN’S AFRICA STRATEGY: As the Wagner Group’s influence in Africa grows, the Biden administration is sharing sensitive intel with allies on the continent to dissuade them from partnering with the Russian paramilitary force, our own ERIN BANCO and ANASTASIIA CARRIER reported Sunday.

In recent months, the U.S. has shared intelligence related to an alleged Wagner plan to assassinate the president of Chad as well as its attempts to access and control key natural resource extraction sites in countries such as Sudan and the Central African Republic, among other initiatives, several U.S. officials told Erin and Anastasiia.

It’s a favored tactic by the administration, with the aim this time to highlight for African officials how working with Wagner is likely to sow chaos in the long term despite its promises to bring peace and security to countries facing political turmoil and violence, the officials said.

LEAK STILL LEAKING: Iran used humanitarian aid deliveries from the country’s earthquake earlier this year to smuggle weapons that are being used to attack American troops in Syria, leaked Pentagon documents show.

The intelligence, reported by the Post’s ALEX HORTON, MUSTAFA SALIM and STEVE HENDRIX on Sunday, brings into question the United States’ and its allies’ ability to intercept Iranian-sourced arms used to target troops and civilians in the region. The weapons shipped include unspecified small arms, ammunition and drones, according to the documents.

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2024

NO CCP IN FLORIDA: Chinese citizens hoping to snag land in Florida are likely out of luck after Gov. RON DeSANTIS signed a bill prohibiting such transactions on Monday.

“We don’t want the [Chinese Communist Party] in the Sunshine State,” DeSantis, a likely 2024 presidential candidate, told reporters, per Fox News’ HANNAH RAY LAMBERT. “We want to maintain this as the free state of Florida.”

The governor cited concerns about China’s “concerted effort” to purchase farmland in the United States, arguing that “food security is also national security, and so we don’t want the CCP in charge of any food production.”

Keystrokes

THE KIDS WON’T BE ALRIGHT: If the GOP pushes for a ban on TikTok, Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) believes there’s a good chance it’ll backfire on the party — and he’s warning his colleagues to consider the electoral impact.

Republicans could “continuously lose elections for a generation” if they alienate young people by trying to ban an app that claims it has 150 million users in America, Paul told our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA. But the senator said his GOP colleagues may not have “thought that through,” connecting it to what he described as his bigger worries about the constitutional and other legal ramifications of government-mandated TikTok limits.

“We are in a political world,” Paul said. “We shouldn’t be completely oblivious to the fact that a lot of young people are on there and it is, frankly, their freedom of speech.”

The Complex

BELL’S FIRST DAY: In his first interview since becoming CEO of federal contractor Leidos — which works in defense, aviation, information technology and biomedical research — TOM BELL sat down with our own LEE HUDSON (for Pros!) to discuss his views on a number of issues, including many natsec-y ones. Here’s a few takeaways:

On the supply chain: “We never experienced as big a problem with supply chain and Covid as potentially others in the industry did. But we still see perturbations in the supply chain that we have to manage, and we’re doing that by diversifying our supply base and ensuring that we tap into other resources.”

On the war in Ukraine: “The bulk of the work Leidos is doing to support the war is classified, but the company is providing products and services.”

On the labor shortage: “Today’s employees have grown to expect some flexibility. But during the pandemic, we also learned the limitations of hybrid work. You can only sit in your basement for so long, and innovation doesn’t happen for most people sitting alone. It occurs in the creative process by playing off each other, not in a Zoom meeting.”

ICYMI — NDAA DELAYED: The Senate Armed Services Committee is delaying plans to mark up annual defense policy legislation due to a looming brawl over the debt limit, CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD scooped (for Pros!) on Friday. The full committee had aimed to debate its version of the National Defense Authorization Act on May 31 and finish by June 1, though a markup schedule hasn’t been formally announced. But that would have bumped into the “X-date” upon which the federal government could run out of money to pay its bills. Instead, the committee will hold its deliberations later in June.

On the Hill

MCCAUL’S THREAT: House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) threatened to hold Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN in contempt of Congress over his panel’s investigation into the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, according to a letter sent from his office Friday and made public Monday.

“The State Department’s continued refusal to produce the dissent cable and response, as legally obligated, is unacceptable,” McCaul told NatSec Daily in a statement. “If this obstruction continues, I am prepared to hold Secretary Blinken in contempt of Congress.”

The escalation comes as McCaul tries to get his hands on the unredacted form of an internal “dissent cable” sent in July 2021, that criticized Washington’s plans to withdraw troops that year.

The department has only provided one page of that dissent cable, but said that was due to the omitting of names and personal identifiable information. House Republicans have questioned how omitting personal details could amount to three pages of redactions.

The chair said in his letter that the information turned over from the State Department is insufficient.

McCaul is now giving Blinken a May 11 deadline to voluntarily comply with the subpoena, or else he said he will move forward with contempt proceedings. Our own NANCY VU has more.

Broadsides

RELATIONS ON ‘COLD ICE’: China’s foreign minister QIN GANG said that a “series of erroneous words and deeds” means Washington should “reflect deeply” before ties between the two largest economies can be restored, per CNN’s NECTAR GAN and MENGCHEN ZHANG.

“The agenda of dialogue and cooperation agreed by the two sides has been disrupted, and the relationship between the two countries has once again hit the cold ice,” China’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

Qin made the remarks at a meeting in China on Monday with U.S. Ambassador NICHOLAS BURNS, their first since a dispute over Chinese balloons worsened already bitter ties. Burns wrote on Twitter that he and Qin spoke about “challenges in the U.S.-China relationship and the necessity of stabilizing ties and expanding high-level communication.”

Transitions

— SARAH NEWSOME has been tapped to serve on the Chief Executives Organization as the digital education manager, Lee learned. She previously worked in Rep. ROB WITTMAN’s (R-Va.) office, where she was communications director.

— BRANDT ANDERSON will serve as senior policy adviser in Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck’s Washington office. He previously worked as national security adviser to Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.).

— DEAN LIEBERMAN has been named deputy national security adviser to the VP for strategic comms and speechwriting. He previously was a special adviser and foreign policy speechwriter in Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ office and is an NSC alum.

— FRANCISCO PELAYO, formerly the communications director for Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), has joined IBM to lead government media relations under the global client engagement team. The role covers the public sector (civilian and defense), mostly outside the U.S.

— BENJAMIN SCHWARTZ, formerly a senior director at Infineon Technologies, will become the director of national security and lead of the CHIPS Program Office’s national security division.

— PETER RASMUSSEN, formerly the chief of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency’s western hemisphere and African security assistance division, was named senior adviser and liaison for policy and readiness at the Army’s Office of the Chief Legislative Liaison.

What to Read

— PETER BEINART, The New York Times: Why JOE BIDEN needs a primary challenger

— ASLI AYDINTASBAS, The Washington Post: If Erdoğan is defeated in upcoming elections, the West must help Turkey succeed

— ALEX BETLEY, Modern War Institute: Catastrophic Success: What if the Ukrainian counteroffensive achieves more than expected?

Tomorrow Today

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who walks zombie-like over our copy.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would be the leader during a zombie apocalypse.