With help from Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien

Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

Kyiv is holding close the details of its spring counteroffensive in an attempt to prevent the leak of sensitive information that could compromise its positions on the battlefield, according to two European officials who are in touch with military leaders in Ukraine.

The officials said their Ukrainian counterparts have cited the alleged leak of the classified documents from Massachusetts Air Guardsman JACK TEIXEIRA as one of the reasons Kyiv is holding back from sharing counteroffensive information, including its timing, where and how many troops they plan to move into position for the operation.

The spilled documents included detailed information about the war in Ukraine, such as the position of Kyiv’s troops, its weapons stockpiles and casualty estimates. In the days following the leak, U.S. officials scrambled to assure Ukraine and other allies in Europe that it was putting protections in place to prevent a similar breach from happening in the future.

But officials in Kyiv are still on high alert. While Ukraine is still likely sharing some basic intelligence with the U.S. and other European countries that have supported it with weapons over the past year, officials inside the country are working to prevent the widespread dissemination of details related to battlefield planning, the European officials said.

A Ukrainian lawmaker, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations, said that top officials in Kyiv also had withheld details about the counteroffensive from other politicians inside the capital.

“There are only a few people in the country that know the plan,” the lawmaker said.

A U.S. defense official said there hasn’t been any change and that Washington and Kyiv still have the same level of information-sharing. There have been no signs of Ukraine keeping anything from the U.S., the official continued.

National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY, asked by NatSec Daily if the administration feared being kept in the dark by the Ukrainians, said silence ahead of the launch wouldn’t be a surprise. “They don’t have an obligation to notify us or tell us in advance,” he told reporters Monday, adding “oftentimes we certainly do have a sense because we’re in daily communication with them.”

The U.S. still supports Ukrainian operations with real-time information and intelligence, Kirby continued. “What we’re focused on is not whether we get some sort of heads up. We’re focused on making sure that they have everything they need for when they’re ready to go.

Other Biden administration officials insist that Ukraine has never been fully open with the United States about its military plans. While Washington and Kyiv are in close touch, they naturally don’t share everything, and so there was never an expectation that Ukraine would call up the White House and say the counteroffensive begins on X day at Y time.

“They’ve been stingy with information from the beginning,” a U.S. official said.

The Inbox

TROOPS TO THE BORDER: The Biden administration is sending 1,500 more troops to the southern border to assist agents ahead of an expected influx of migrants seeking asylum, Alex, LARA SELIGMAN and JOE GOULD report.

Mostly coming from Army units, the troops won’t have a law enforcement role. They’ll be armed for self-defense — but their days will mainly be filled with performing monitoring and administrative tasks only, freeing up Border Patrol officials to process migrant claims, three U.S. officials told us.

If the request is approved, the service members will join 2,500 National Guard troops already activated to assist law enforcement at the border, an official said. They will be there for up to 90 days, after which military reservists or contractors will do the work.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– NEW PACKAGE: The Biden administration is set to announce another $300 million package of military aid for Ukraine on Wednesday, U.S. officials tell Lara and Joe.

The package includes additional artillery and mortar ammunition for Kyiv’s looming counteroffensive, as well as trucks and heavy equipment, spare parts and Hydra-70 rockets for fixed and rotary-wing aircraft. The officials were granted anonymity because they didn’t want to speak publicly ahead of the official announcement.

SUDAN’S SEVEN-DAY CEASEFIRE: Sudan’s warring sides, the nation’s army and Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, have agreed to a seven-day ceasefire starting Thursday, according to South Sudan’s foreign ministry.

Both groups said they will send representatives for peace talks “to be held at an agreed venue of their choice,” the statement said. Previous ceasefires have failed, and South Sudan President SALVA KIIR urged the groups’ generals to use the seven days to name representatives and propose dates for the discussions.

If the violent conflict in Sudan continues, more than 800,000 people could flee Sudan and spark a massive regional refugee crisis, the U.N. refugee agency warned.

The situation is reaching a “breaking point,” U.N. Humanitarian Affairs Coordinator MARTIN GRIFFITHS said in a statement. Some 100,000 people have already fled the country and hundreds of thousands have been displaced internally, U.N. officials said at a briefing in Geneva on Tuesday, per the Washington Post’s NIHA MASIH, KATHARINE HOURELD and RACHEL CHASON.

NOT A BALLOONING ISSUE: Yes, there’s another balloon over the United States. No, there won’t be another drawn-out saga involving the United States shooting it down.

While it’s unclear whose balloon was spotted floating above Hawaii over the weekend, it didn’t appear that it was controlled by “a foreign or adversarial actor,” said a Defense Department spokesperson, per our own KELLY GARRITY. Because of that, no action needs to be taken, the official said. Phew.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @Lawrence_Ukenye, @reporterjoe and @_AriHawkins.

2024

HUTCHINSON’S UKRAINE HARDLINE: Former Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON doubled down on his support for Ukraine after Fox News host LAWRENCE JONES cited a poll saying Republicans didn’t agree with continued military and economic support for Kyiv.

“I’m supporting our funding of the fight in Ukraine because if we show weakness there then you’re gonna have our aggressors take more significant action like China toward Taiwan,’ Hutchinson said Monday night. “But Russia will not stop at Ukraine. There is a national interest in our support of Ukraine.”

When Jones asked if Hutchinson, who’s running for president in 2024, would draw a “red line” on foreign aid to Ukraine, the former governor dug in.

“You don’t need to draw a red line. You need to support those that are being oppressed against the oppressor. Right now that is Ukraine,” he said.

Keystrokes

‘RAPIDLY ACCELERATING’: Iran is picking up the pace of hacks and online information operations against countries like Israel, Microsoft noted in a Tuesday report.

Per our own MAGGIE MILLER (for Pros!), the pace of Iranian cyber-enabled influence operations have sped up since mid-2022, with Microsoft tracking 17 individual campaigns in the past year as compared to seven in 2021.

Many of these campaigns Microsoft assessed were run by an Iranian state-backed group that was sanctioned by the Treasury Department in 2021 for attempting to undermine the 2020 U.S. elections by intimidating voters into picking a certain candidate.

Almost a quarter of these efforts are aimed at Israel, along with undermining Iranian government opposition members. Just over 10 percent of the attacks have been aimed against the United States in the past year. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were also common targets.

HUAWEI IN MALAYSIA: The U.S. and the EU have warned Malaysia of potential risks to national security and foreign investment as their government finalizes its 5G rollout, which could allow China’s Huawei Technologies to play a role in Malaysia’s telecommunications infrastructure, MERCEDES RUEHL reports for the Financial Times.

Western envoys wrote to the Malaysian government last month after it decided to review a decision to award a $2.5 billion tender to the regional telecommunications firm Ericsson to establish a state-owned 5G network. The Beijing-based Huawei, which has been blacklisted by Washington, has heavily lobbied for the opportunity to build the country’s network.

BRIAN McFEETERS, the U.S. ambassador to Malaysia also warned that “upending the existing model would undermine the competitiveness of new industries, stall 5G growth in Malaysia, and harm Malaysia’s business-friendly image internationally,” in a letter seen by FT.

The Complex

NEW WAY OF WAR: With the advent of new military technology, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY believes that the world is seeing “the most fundamental change in the character of war ever in recorded history.”

While speaking on a Foreign Affairs podcast, Milley explained that the implementation of robotics and other technology into the military is happening “much faster than people may think.” Add in things like precision munitions, quantum computing and artificial intelligence, and war looks a bit different than it did last century, he said.

“The country that optimizes those technologies for the conduct of warfare, that country is going to have a decisive advantage at least at the beginning of the opening shots of the next war,” Milley said. “I want [that] to be the United States.”

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– PROBE JRTOC PROGRAM: Seven congressional Democrats want the Government Accountability Office to investigate if the Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps is protecting cadets from sexual abuse and harassment.

“It is incumbent upon us as Members of Congress to conduct oversight and, as appropriate, consider whether additional legislation may be needed to protect JROTC cadets from sexual abuse and harassment while ensuring that DOD and the military services conduct adequate oversight and maintain the integrity of JROTC,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to GENE DODARO, comptroller general of the United States.

It’s unclear if the GAO will take up the request from Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii) alongside Reps. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.), ROBERT GARCIA (D-Calif.), STEPHEN LYNCH (D-Mass.), CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Pa.) and SYLVIA GARCIA (D-Texas).

CONCERN MOUNTS OVER CHINA-UAE TIES: Lawmakers with intelligence access are sounding the alarm over China’s growing ties with the United Arab Emirates and activity in the Middle East, report GOPAL RATNAM and RACHEL OSWALD for Roll Call.

“What I can say is that it’s only increased my concerns about CCP’s influence in the Middle East, in the UAE and in other countries of interest to us,” Rep. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.), who is a member of the House Intelligence Committee and ranking member of the select committee on competition with China, told Rollcall, without providing details on the classified briefing.

The top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Florida Sen. MARCO RUBIO, also warned that “what you are seeing in the UAE is similar to what you’re seeing a lot of developing countries around the world, which is they’re hedging their bets.”

Other lawmakers with access to the intelligence are expressing similar concerns, including Senate Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), according to the report.

‘BEST CHANCE YET’ FOR A SPACE GUARD: Reps. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) and DOUG LAMBORN (R-Colo.) are set to reintroduce their bill this week to give the Space Force its own branch of the National Guard, our colleagues Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson report (for Pros!).

The proposal has been resisted by the Biden administration and leaders in the Senate wary that creating a Space National Guard would mean spending more money and added bureaucracy. But in a joint interview with POLITICO, Lamborn and Crow say they’re making headway.

“We think that we have the best chance yet of passing it,” Crow said. “We think that there’s been some movement within DoD, specifically within the Space Force itself.”

Crow and Lamborn’s bill would establish a Space National Guard from the eight states and territories using existing Air National Guard units that already perform space missions.

“It’s narrowly focused so people can’t say it has a huge budget impact, but it covers the essence of what we need to accomplish,” Lamborn added.

In the Senate, a Space Guard bill is also being spearheaded in the Senate by Sens. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) and Rubio.

Broadsides

‘SPUN OUT OF THIN AIR’: Washington’s latest count for the number of Russians who have died in battle was “spun out of thin air,” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said Tuesday.

NSC spokesperson Kirby told reporters Monday that Russia has suffered around 100,000 casualties since December, with about 20,000 killed in action. But the U.S. “doesn’t have the opportunity to give any correct numbers. They don’t have such data,” Peskov said, per the AP’s DAVID RISING.

Also on Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU called for a state-owned company to double its production of missiles “in the shortest possible time.” His remarks come as Western observers wonder whether Russia is running low on such weapons, with the United Kingdom’s defense ministry assessing that Moscow “does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive.”

Transitions

— Journalist BASHARAT PEER has been named as the deputy director of Crisis Group’s Future of Conflict program. He’s currently a contributing writer at the New York Times and previously worked as a staff editor there.

— JOSH BLACK has joined the NSC as senior director for multilateral affairs, he announced on Twitter Tuesday. He was most recently a senior policy adviser to the U.S. mission at the U.N.

— JORGE GUAJARDO and CAMILLA WHITE have joined Dentons Global Advisors as partners. Guajardo moves over from McLarty Associates and White spent more than a decade working on strategic communications for healthcare and sciences firms.

What to Read

— ROSS ANDERSEN, The Atlantic: Never give artificial intelligence the nuclear codes

— RACHEL KYTE and LAURENCE TUBIANA, Foreign Policy: The UAE’s China-Nixon moment has arrived

— VANESSA BARBARA, The New York Times: Is Brazil ‘anti-American’ now?

Tomorrow Today

— Henry L. Stimson Center, 8:30 a.m.: Nuclearization Debates: What Can South Korea Learn from South Asia?

— United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: Beyond Fragile Ground: New Peacebuilding Architectures for Today and the Future

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Strengthening Deterrence: Parliamentary Perspectives on Japan’s Defense Strategy

Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: A Review of the FY2024 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Energy, including the National Nuclear Security Administration

— National Defense Industrial Association, 1 p.m.: Introduction to the Defense Technical Information Center: How DTIC Supports the Defense S&T (science and technology) Ecosystem

— Senate Appropriations Committee, 2 p.m.: Combating Transnational Criminal Organizations and Related Trafficking

— Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 2 p.m.: Build It and They Will Come: A U.S. Strategy for Integrating Middle East Air and Missile Defenses

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: The Global Information Wars: Is the U.S. Winning or Losing?

— New York University, 6:30 p.m.: The Clear Blue Skies: Diaries from Ukraine

CORRECTION: Yesterday’s edition of NatSec Daily incorrectly stated the date senators introduced SISA. The bill was introduced Monday.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always keeps pertinent information from us.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we would reveal everything to.

Follow us on Twitter


• Alex Ward @alexbward

Follow Us