Earlier this month, Abacus found that 78 percent of Alberta voters want their province to remain in Canada; 14 percent suggested “Alberta should become an independent country.”

That 14 percent — about one in seven voters — is significantly lower than measured from 2019 to 2022 when the United Conservative Party’s Jason Kenney was premier.

• In 2019, an Abacus poll indicated 25 percent of Albertans would vote in favor of separation in a referendum on independence.
  
• In 2021, Research Co. found 25 percent for independence and 69 percent against.
  
• Last July, a Viewpoint Alberta survey suggested one in five Albertans believed the province “should separate from Canada and form an independent country.” In their analysis of the poll, political scientists Jared Wesley (University of Alberta) and Lisa Young (University of Calgary) wrote: “While support for separation is a minority view in Alberta, it’s not a fringe position.”

— The state of play: Historically, Alberta separatist sentiments share few similarities with Quebec’s independence movement. The sovereignty movement in Quebec wants to protect culture, language and heritage, while “[Alberta] separatism is less a heartfelt desire to form a new country and more a tactical expression of grievances,” Wesley and Young write.

In Alberta, polls expose strong correlations between separatism and partisanship — pro-independence Albertans are disproportionately on the right of the spectrum and make up a sizable fraction of UCP support.

So it’s no surprise Smith’s UCP leadership campaign made a direct appeal to aggrieved voters who, rightly or wrongly, felt left behind by Kenney.

After narrowly winning the race, Smith quickly tabled the Sovereignty Act, seeking the right to ignore federal laws deemed harmful to Alberta’s interest.

— Breaking it down: Obviously, in quantitative research, one needs to show caution when comparing survey results, since the wording of questions can dramatically influence the results. To wit: a summer 2022 poll from Research Co. found that 33 percent of Alberta voters believed their province “would be better off as an independent country.” Last fall, a Janet Brown Opinion Research poll commissioned by the CBC showed that 46 percent of Alberta voters, including a whopping 82 percent of UCP voters, agreed with the statement: “Alberta should work toward achieving more sovereignty and independence from the federal government.”

Would be better off? More sovereignty and independence?

Sure, absolutely.

But outright independence? Not so much.

Breaking down the Abacus Data results by regional subsamples does not produce significant variations. The proportion of respondents who agreed “Alberta should become an independent country” was 14 percent in Calgary, 13 percent in Edmonton and 15 percent in the rest of the province.

— UCP vs. NDP: The Abacus poll also offers fresh numbers on the horse race.

Among the decided respondents, 47 percent supported Smith’s UCP and 45 percent sided with Notley’s NDP. Third party support has evaporated: Only 5 percent said they would vote for the Alberta Party, and 3 percent would choose a different party. (See the latest 338Canada Alberta seat projections here.)

Wesley and Young concluded that a vast majority of pro-independence voters support the UCP, an observation that holds in this Abacus survey, even though support for separation has gone down significantly since Smith took over the party.

When support for independence is cross referenced with voting intentions, it reveals that 22 percent of current UCP voters believe Alberta should become an independent country, dwarfing the 5 percent of NDP supporters who share that view.

— The big picture: Smith’s arrival as UCP leader appears to have brought back voters who’d parked their support with the Wildrose Independence Party during Kenney’s reign.

In late fall 2021 and early 2022, several opinion polls measured double-digit support for the openly separatist party, almost exclusively at the expense of the UCP. During that period, NDP support averaged 45 percent provincewide — exactly where the NDP now stands.

The recipe for taking back control of the Legislative Assembly for Alberta conservatives in 2019 was a simple for Kenney: Unite the right and remain united throughout the campaign, come hell or high water. It resulted in a landslide 63-seat victory for the UCP against the incumbent NDP.

— What’s ahead: If Smith can satisfy the factions in the wide UCP tent, including the minority with strong separatist sentiments, the odds of the UCP winning a second straight majority increase dramatically.

See Abacus poll and methodology here.