What Republicans can do with their new supermajorities

TOP LINE

Legislative supermajorities are more than just a number for a party to feel good about. As the nation saw in Tennessee last week, a supermajority creates significant powers that go beyond what a simple majority possesses. Supermajorities grant near-uncheckable control for one party, giving a chance to almost entirely sideline a governor.

And over the last month, Republicans have secured three more.

Many state legislatures across the country have these veto-proof majorities, most of which are held by Republicans. GOP supermajorities in three more chambers have recently formed in states with Democratic governors: Louisiana and North Carolina lawmakers flipped parties, and Wisconsin after a special election to fill a vacant seat.

In North Carolina, state House Republicans earned a veto-proof majority last week after state Rep. Tricia Cotham, who represents a district that favors Democrats, flipped her party affiliation. (Republicans secured a supermajority in the state Senate after November’s elections.) Top Democrats, including state House Democratic Leader Robert Reives and the state party chair, have called for her to resign.

In an interview with Score, Reives said the supermajority doesn’t change the caucus’ priorities, but he’s concerned that “there’ll be things that are enacted that are just not reflective of North Carolina, but are things that would be important to the partisans that participate in the process.”

Reives said that Democrats are well-positioned to break the supermajority in future elections — although much of that is dependent on a looming redistricting fight, with Republicans poised to redraw the maps this summer, while the state Supreme Court looks eager to overturn a past ruling and clear the way for partisan gerrymandering.

But, Reives argued, that could present unintended problems for the GOP. “When you’re in a supermajority and you redraw maps, you’ve got a whole lot of incumbents you’ve got to protect,” he said. “In your attempt to protect those incumbents, you’re going to have to weaken some incumbents.”

Republicans celebrated their supermajority last week, but now it’s “back to work,” state House Republican Leader John Bell said in an interview.

“Make no mistake, Democrats have always worked very hard to break a supermajority, and trying to break a majority, so that makes no difference,” he said. “We’ve always been able to put our best foot forward, put great candidates forward, and I would think that the general public would see nothing less in the next election.”

Over in Wisconsin, Republican state Rep. Dan Knodl narrowly defeated Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin in a special state Senate election last week, granting Republicans a supermajority there that gives the party the ability to impeach state officials. Republicans do not currently have a supermajority in the state Assembly, meaning the party doesn’t have power to override the governor’s veto.

State Senate Democratic Leader Melissa Agard also expressed confidence in being able to break the GOP supermajority in the future, pointing to liberal Janet Protasiewicz’s win on the state Supreme Court. The state’s legislative and congressional maps, which favor Republicans, are likely to come before the state’s high court, with its new liberal majority.

Agard also said that the close margin of the special election in a Republican-leaning district was reassuring, and she’s hoping Democrats work off that momentum.

“There’s a lot of people walking around feeling like there’s a chance that we may be able to save democracy in the state of Wisconsin,” she said. “That feels really bittersweet.”

Welcome to Monday. Send tips and hot bagel takes to [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Kentucky primary: 36

Days until the Mississippi primary: 120

Days until the Louisiana primary: 187

Days until the 2023 election: 211

Days until the 2024 election: 575

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

EYES ON AZ — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is preparing for a reelection bid, The Wall Street Journal’s Eliza Collins reports. According to slides from a meeting at a recent staff retreat, “one slide breaks down the timeline through the remainder of 2023, including getting a poll and opposition research done by Sept. 30 and getting in place campaign staff by Dec. 31. Another slide on current communications strategy emphasizes her independent streak in the Senate.”

… Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is set to enter the race for Arizona Senate, per NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard. Pinal County is one of the state’s most populous counties, and Lamb has gained some national name recognition during his time in the role.

2024 WATCH — Former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) is holding an “announcement rally” Monday with Speaker Kevin McCarthy. A spokesperson for Herrell told the Roswell Daily Record that she’ll be making a campaign announcement, but didn’t provide other details. Herrell lost her seat in NM-02 by around one point in November to first year Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez.

REDISTRICTING REDUX — New York Attorney General Tish James and Gov. Kathy Hochul submitted a court brief Friday in support of having new congressional district lines drawn, POLITICO’s Joe Spector reports. “The move by the two statewide Democratic leaders helps to reignite the fight over whether the current map that benefited Republicans on Long Island and the Hudson Valley should be redrawn by the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission ahead of the 2024 elections.”

DISCLOSURE DEBACLE — Twitter has failed to disclose some political ads running on its site since early March, our Jessica Piper reports. “At least three promoted fundraising tweets were not included in Twitter’s own data, seemingly contradicting the company’s policies and raising doubts about the integrity of the platform’s data and how many other political ads could go unreported.”

Presidential Big Board

LOOKING FOR AIR — Donald Trump’s opponents are struggling to find a spotlight of their own in the 2024 campaign. POLITICO’s Sally Goldenberg and Natalie Allison take a look at how potential and declared candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are navigating the field amid Trump’s indictment.

HONESTLY, NEVERMIND — Trump was considering hiring Laura Loomer, a far-right activist and former Florida congressional candidate, for a campaign role, per the New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan. “Some of Mr. Trump’s aides were said to have concerns that such a hire would cause a backlash, given her history of inflammatory statements and her embrace of the Republican Party’s fringes. That proved to be correct: The New York Times’s report on the potential hire ignited a firestorm among some of Mr. Trump’s most vocal conservative supporters, and by late Friday, a high-ranking campaign official said Ms. Loomer was no longer going to be hired.”

CAMPAIGN IN WAITING — A reelection announcement from President Joe Biden is “now more likely to be the summer rather than spring,” CNN’s Kevin Liptak, MJ Lee and Jeff Zeleny report.

… In an attempt to boost his standing among young voters, Biden’s not-yet-announced reelection bid will utilize hundreds of social media influencers to tout his record, Axios’ Sophia Cai reports. Plus, they might get their own briefing room.

DNC DANCE — Democratic Chicago Mayor-elect Brandon Johnson pitched Biden on holding the Democratic National Convention in his city, per NBC News’ Natasha Korecki. Johnson discussed it on a call in which the president congratulated him on his mayoral win last week.

THIRD-PARTY CORNER — Libertarian Chase Oliver, who ran for Georgia Senate last year and earned 2 percent of the vote, pushing the contest to a runoff, filed to run for president. He announced his bid last week.

THE CASH DASH

Q1 TABS — There are 5 days until Q1 reports are due to the FEC. Here’s a look at some more hauls.

— NV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen raised $2.4 million and had $6 million on hand, per The Nevada Independent’s Gabby Birenbaum.

— AZ-Sen: Sinema brought in around $2 million, per the WSJ’s Collins. She had close to $10 million on hand, as our Burgess Everett noted last week. For comparison, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who announced his Arizona Senate bid earlier this year, said he raised $3.7 million in Q1, and his campaign didn’t announce how much he had in the bank.

— CO-03: Democrat Adam Frisch, who narrowly lost to incumbent Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert last year, raised over $1.7 million.

… How much did your campaign raise in Q1? Let me know.

POLL POSITION

— “The Roe v. Wade framework — making abortion mostly legal, but allowing states to impose modest restrictions — is where the majority of American voters are,” POLITICO’s Steve Shepard writes in his latest poll analysis. About six-in-10 voters support legal abortion in most cases — with the median voter supporting some restrictions — and just over a third who want it to be entirely or mostly illegal. “Such a strict prohibition runs headlong into national public opinion. And it raises the question: How, if at all, are Republicans going to find a message that puts the party more in line with the median voter?”

AS SEEN ON TV

— State Solutions Inc., a group affiliated with the Republican Governors Association, placed its first broadcast buy in the race for Kentucky governor, per AdImpact. The spot is set to start Wednesday.

STAFFING UP

— Amanda Elliott has launched Anchor City Strategies, a digital consulting firm. She was previously digital director at the Republican Governors Association.

— Former Democratic Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is president of Power to the Polls Wisconsin, a group focused on voter turnout.

— Alex Lasry is co-treasurer at the Democratic Governors Association. He ran for Wisconsin Senate (along with Barnes) last year.

— Alex Floyd is now communications director for Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s reelection campaign. He previously worked on Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams’ leadership committee.

— Ari Appel is chief strategizing officer, Mairead Cahill is political director and Olivia Eggers is press secretary at Building Back Together, the main super PAC supporting the Biden administration’s policy agenda.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: “Where are the worst drivers, best restaurants in the D.C. area? The poll data are in.” (The Washington Post)

CORRECTION: A previous version of this newsletter incorrectly identified which district Adam Frisch is running in.