Welcome to Corridors. Over the next few issues, we’re sharing this space with contributors as obsessed as we are with policy and Canadian politics. Hon. Lisa Raitt is this week’s guest writer. She is a former Conservative Cabinet minister and served as the Member of Parliament for Milton, Ontario. Raitt is a global fellow at The Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. Over to you, Lisa. — Sue Allan, editor of POLITICO Canada.

DRIVING THE WEEK

In my first election campaign in 2008, I was clear on my pitch at the door: NO CARBON TAX. The Liberal Party under Stéphane Dion was running on a platform called The Green Shift with a carbon tax designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Financial markets in the U.S. were unravelling and gas prices were volatile — first high, then low. As I campaigned door to door, senior citizens, parents of school-aged children and small business owners told me they were more concerned with economic conditions than they were with climate change.

In my second campaign in 2011, there was very little discussion of environmental policy. At the door, I focused conversations on the need for stability as Canada weathered the financial crisis. While Canada’s Green Party stumped for a carbon tax, it was not part of the Liberal campaign.

In my third campaign in 2015, things were different. Constituents were displeased with my government and talked about wanting a change. I once again spoke about stability and experience, pointing to the Liberal platform of running deficits and their renewed intention to introduce a carbon tax. But this time, voters wanted to talk about the environment. Yes, a carbon tax was a “tax on everything,” but in Milton people were talking about climate issues in a more serious way. The Conservatives lost government, and I was elected as an opposition MP.

My final campaign was in 2019. At the doors, at all-candidates debates, during interviews, and at local events, I was peppered with questions about the Conservative climate policy. I wasn’t prepared for the demand for a strong policy and my responses were not greeted with much enthusiasm.

A year earlier, Conservative Premier Doug Ford had won a commanding majority in Ontario. He ran on the promise of repealing the previous government’s environmental measures and “fighting” Trudeau’s carbon tax. In Milton, a Liberal Cabinet minister was unseated by the Progressive Conservative candidate. I assumed the same public sentiment would win the day in 2019. I was wrong, and I did not win my seat.

The carbon tax debate has changed significantly since 2008. Today, our largest trading partner will be moving to steeply reduce emissions, large investors are looking seriously at sustainable finance and large Canadian companies have accepted the need to put a price on carbon. Maybe this is why Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is not afraid to talk about the environment in a new way.

For more than a decade, Conservative candidates have opposed a carbon tax. But in the coming election, they will be supporting a tariff charged on carbon. It will be fascinating to watch how — and how effectively — this will be communicated across the country. At some doors, MPs and candidates will no doubt be challenged to explain how the Conservative carbon tariff differs from a Trudeau carbon tax. At others, perhaps, voters will just be satisfied the Conservative Party has finally put forth a serious environmental plan that reflects what they worry about.

In the United Kingdom, both Labour and Conservative governments have embraced climate policy and clean growth as the key to the future. The discussion of emission reductions almost seems to be an apolitical one. It’s an outcome we should aspire to in Canada.

Over to the Corridors crew — Sue Allan, Lauren Gardner and Andy Blatchford.

Who's Up, Who's Down

Who’s up: Armine Yalnizyan
The labor economist who coined the term “she-cession” tried out the word “absoflippinlutely” when asked if Budget 2021 does enough for child care in Canada.

Economist Jennifer Robson has a good thread on the budget that points to the challenges ahead.

Who’s down: Ontario Premier Doug Ford
For many reasons, though he was quick to walk back playground closures and is said to be contemplating paid sick day measures. The premier is now in isolation after a member of his staff tested positive for Covid-19. A statement from his office says he has tested negative.

For one of many scathing reads on this, check out Justin Ling in Maclean’s.

YOU TELL US

Corridors is a new weekly newsletter for MPs, lobbyists, executives, activists and any readers who are interested in what’s going on around Parliament Hill. Every Wednesday we will look at the people pulling the levers of power in Ottawa and the questions that are influencing decisions on Parliament Hill and in the provinces. Join the conversation! You can email us at [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected].

What We're Watching

VACCINE-NATION — That a mostly anonymous group known as the Vaccine Hunters has become semi-famous for using social media to connect Canadians with Covid shots might tell you a lot about how the rollout is going. Josh Kalpin has served as spokesman for the team in the pages of Toronto Life, The Toronto Star and on CBC’s The National. The volunteer crew is agnostic about who’s to blame for the fact just 20 percent of Canadians have so far been vaccinated with even a single dose. “We identified a problem: We need to get the shots in the arms,” Kalpin told Maclean’s. Such are born Canadian folk heroes.

— And they are not alone. Let the list of Canadians who deserve a post-Covid Order of Canada include the army of tweeps keeping things honest from the front lines of the crisis: Kali Barrett, Gaibrie Stephen, Isaac Bogoch and add your #favorite source here.

— It’s a trick to keep up with all of it, even for the media savvy. The National Advisory Committee on Immunization late-canceled a briefing Tuesday where they had intended to update their guidance on the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine. Corridors asked for advice in the meantime and was reminded that it’s the provinces and territories that are responsible for vaccinations. “They also set their own priorities.”

Many provinces areexpanding access to the AstraZeneca vaccine. And given the developing headlines, Canada’s public officials have been doing double duty on their social channels in an effort to coax the hesitant. Among the freshly vaccinated with AstraZeneca: Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Infrastructure Minister Catherine McKenna and British Columbia Premier John Horgan.

— Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, 48, says he has one booked for the weekend. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, 49, says he’s also eager to roll up his sleeve. “My office and I are busy trying to book appointments,” he said Tuesday during a briefing on Parliament Hill. Paging @VaxHuntersCan

What’s in a number? A lot, when it comes to climate targets. The Trudeau government has said its new budget will put Canada on track to slashing emissions 36 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, up from the 30 percent former PM Stephen Harper agreed to during the 2015 Paris climate talks. Budget 2021 said a more ambitious goal would be announced soon, which we assume to mean this week as President Joe Biden convenes world leaders for a global warming summit tied to Earth Day. With reports circulating that Biden will pledge to halve emissions by 2030, it’s hard to see how Trudeau’s number won’t rise. For more, read POLITICO’s Zack Colman: Biden readies ambitious pitch to make the U.S. the global climate leader.

Gentle reminder: Just what will it take to reopen the Canada-U.S. border? Asking on behalf of longtime Liberal MP Wayne Easter and others who want the metrics. “We know things change. You may have to adapt,” the Prince Edward Islander told Lauren last week. “People need to be given the confidence we are going to get to opening the border with safety measures in place.”

Easter, who co-chairs the Canada-United States Inter-Parliamentary Group, says benchmarks would go a long way. “You see what you have to do in order to be able to access more normalcy.” For the record, he also supports Covid immunization requirements for international travel — whether it’s called a “vaccine passport” or something else — pointing to other countries that mandate specific shots for entry by foreign travelers. “We’re in the world of Covid,” he said.

Bank of Canada preview: The federal budget gave us a look at fiscal policy — and this morning Governor Tiff Macklem will give us the latest on monetary policy. Watch for movement on a couple of fronts: Macklem will crunch the numbers from Freeland’s budget — and its C$101 billion pandemic recovery plan. He’ll also update the central bank’s projections in the latest monetary policy report to reflect the economy’s surprising strength at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021.

Market-watchers like TD senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam predict Macklem will dial back the Bank of Canada’s large-scale asset-purchases, which were launched in the spring of 2020. Oh, and there will also be an interest rate announcement. The governor, who’s signaled the rate won’t move before 2023, is expected to hold steady. But as pressure grows along with the economic momentum, expect there to be scrutiny of his words for any whiff of a shift in thinking.

And the winner is: Last week, we told you about tie election results in the Yukon riding of Vuntut Gwitchin. After a recount confirmed the count, there was a drawing of lots and Yukon NDP’s Annie Blake won the day. The victory leaves the Liberal and Yukon Party tied in the Yukon Legislative Assembly. Liberal Leader Sandy Silver has asked for a chance to form the next government.

The Reading Room

The CBC’s Aaron Wherry explains why Budget 2021 might set the stage for a bigger debate about the kind of government Canada needs now.

Former budget watchdog Kevin Page breaks it all down in Policy: 700-plus pages, C$143 billion in net new spending, 10 priorities, 250 line-item spending initiatives. “If you want a budget to take to the next election, there is a clear strategy in Budget 2021,” he writes. “Spend lots; spend broadly and do your best not to make taxpayers angry.”

For APTN, Brett Forester considers the C$18B in new money for Indigenous communities.

In Chatelaine, Zi-Ann Lum breaks down what the federal budget means for Canadian women.

In this thread of threads, Canada’s economists weigh in.

And here is a link to the PM’s interview with Edmonton-based talk show host Ryan Jespersen on Tuesday. They spoke about Covid-19, the budget, the timing of the next election and the conviction of Derek Chauvin for the murder of George Floyd.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

This week, Corridors wanted to know: What does Budget 2021 tell us about the next election campaign?

Susan Smith, co-founder of Bluesky Strategy Group and Liberal strategist: An election, but not yet. The Liberals have delivered a big spending budget that they are happy to govern on, and happy to run on when the time comes. With something for everyone hard hit by the pandemic, they are looking to kickstart the economy with a green lens. Come fall, with vaccinations in the arms of all who want them, Liberals hope that voters will remember which party helped the country and their families weather the global crisis.

Tim Powers, chair of Summa Strategies and former Conservative adviser: Never mind a chicken in every pot. The Liberal government has bought you a pot, found you an organic grain-fed chicken to cook — or a meat substitute — and fired up your grill with natural gas. If you want a few days off to enjoy this new pre-election meal, go for it, they have set that up, too. To hell with fiscal restraint, no dollar will go unspent as the Liberals look to set themselves for a late summer-early fall election. (Don’t worry we will pay for it later.)

Karl Bélanger, president of Traxxion Strategies and former NDP national director: The first thing this budget tells us about the next election campaign is that it won’t be this spring. It also tells us health care is going to be front and center. As we slowly emerge from a pandemic which has so far cost the lives of 23,000 Canadians, it would always have been the case.

It is a given that the Conservatives will go hard on the pandemic mismanagement angle. But the pandemic also underlined the critical underfunding of our healthcare system and the urgent need for a national pharmacare program.

The Trudeau Liberals decided not to increase health transfers, as demanded unanimously by the premiers, and made no progress on a pan-Canadian drug plan, leaving the Liberals somewhat vulnerable to the NDP. Where they decided to act, the Trudeau government seems interested in imposing national standards for long-term care or mental health. This will be strongly opposed by the ever popular Legault government in Quebec, which in turn will be weaponized by the Bloc.

Pro Zone

— Biden’s pitch to make the U.S. the global climate leader
— 9 things to watch ahead of Joe Biden’s climate-palooza
— USTR Tai names progressive Baltzan as senior adviser
— The bottom line on Canada’s C$101B stimulus plan
— ExxonMobil’s climate pitch to Biden: A $100B carbon project that greens hate
— Former BlackBerry executive cheers Trudeau’s pledge on intellectual property

ON THE NOTICE PAPER

Birthdays: HBD to Senator Marty Deacon who celebrates on Friday … Liberal MP Ali Ehsassi will be 51 on April 24, the same day Sophie Grégoire Trudeau turns 46 and the CBC’s Adrienne Arsenault will be 54. … Liberal MP Andy Fillmore will be 55 on Sunday. … Senator Peter Boehm celebrates on April 26. … Senator René Cormier will be 65 on April 27, the same day MP Stéphane Lauzon will be 55.

Noted: TVO’s Steve Paiken reports that Stephen Lewis has inoperable abdominal cancer. “When you come to a point in your life where you’re battling a disease like cancer, you reflect philosophically on life and what you’ve done and what the future might or might not hold,” the former politician and humanitarian tells Paiken. “Fortunately, I lived an interesting life, surrounded by bright and principled people and a loving and supportive family.”

Media moves: Belinda Lloyd is the Globe’s new deputy foreign editor. … Congratulations to this year’s finalists for the 2020 Michener Award: APTN, CBC News, The Globe and Mail, The Montreal Gazette, La Presse and the Winnipeg Free Press.

TRIVIA QUESTION

This week’s question: Who was then-Secretary of State John Kerry’s plus-one when he signed the Paris Agreement at the United Nations on April 22, 2016?

Email [email protected] if you know.

Now to last week’s contest: Why is the ink smudged on the Proclamation of the Constitution Act, signed on April 17, 1982? Answer: It was raining on Parliament Hill. Props to Chris Radojewski, Fred Pearson, Andrew McGillivary, Chris Leggett, Spencer Clements and Joanna Harrington.

But wait.

A few readers suggested then justice minister Jean Chrétien had something to do with it. We did some research. As Chrétien tells the story, prime minister Pierre Trudeau broke the tip of his fountain pen signing the document.

“I picked up the pen to sign and it was not working and I said to myself, ‘merde,’” Chrétien told the CBC in 2009. “[The queen] had a big, big laugh. Everybody was asking me what the hell you told her that she had such a spontaneous laugh and I refused to say so for years.” (Hat tip to Julian Bonello-Stauch, Michael Read and Corbin Jensen.)

Finally, readers of Corridors reminded us that there is a second copy of the proclamation, one that was vandalized in July 1983. Joe O’Connor of the National Post has a story about that.

With thanks to editor John Yearwood.

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